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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Saturday night – Some clouds and mild. Small chance for a storm.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 70’s
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Where storms form then you can expect a downpour of rain and frequent lightning. Gusty winds.
Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny and hot. Humid. A chance for a storm over our northern and northeastern counties. Some chances for storms on Sunday night moving into the region from the north, as well. Perhaps a complex of storms.
Temperatures: Highs from 88 to 94 degrees
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% chance or less
What impact is expected? If storms form then heavy rain, strong winds, and frequent lightning.
Sunday night – Some clouds and mild. A few storms are possible over our northern and eastern counties. Lower chances elsewhere.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 70’s
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Small chances for severe storms over our northern and eastern counties.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% chance over north and eastern counties. 20% elsewhere
What impact is expected? If storms form then heavy rain and gusty winds are possible. Frequent lightning.
Monday – Partly cloudy. Hot and humid. Thunderstorms are possible. Severe storms can’t be ruled out. Mainly late in the day. But, monitor updates. An outbreak of severe storms is possible over parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky. Whether this will nip our region is still questionable. That would be Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Temperatures: Highs from 88 to 95 degrees.
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? There is a risk for severe weather near our region. Monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% chance
What impact is expected? If storms form then heavy rain and gusty winds are possible. Frequent lightning. Severe storms are possible in and near our region late on Monday into Monday night.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A hot Sunday
2. Warm and muggy week ahead with multiple thunderstorm chances.
3. Heavy rain axis might shift a bit further north and east than recent weeks. Monitor updates. Severe storms are likely this coming week in and near our region.
4. Rivers will continue to need to be monitored over the coming weeks
I hope you had a nice Saturday? It has been warm and humid. There is a lot of moisture in the ground. It isn’t going to be very pleasurable to be outside. Heat index values will be at or above 100 for the next few days. Muggy.
Bottom line for the next 7 days is to keep checking back for updates. There will absolutely be forecast changes from one day to the next. Fast moving systems diving in from the north and west will keep forecasters busy. Especially north and east counties.
Someone asked me what happened to the cooler than normal July.
The whole month was never forecast to be below normal. It is the averages once everything is said and done. You can’t have the same weather every single day. The weather is fluid. We will have above and below normal days. July is normally warm or hot. So, you can expect some warm and hot days, as well.
Keep in mind that 90% of this month has been below normal in the temperature department. And 100% above normal in the rainfall department.
My July forecast was for wetter than normal and cooler than normal.
Let’s look at how I am doing, thus far.
Here is the temperature departures. This is just crazy! Well below normal temperatures over a huge chunk of the nation.
Let’s look at rainfall over the past two weeks. Again, this is just crazy. Insane rainfall totals.
What about the % of normal rainfall? What does that look like? Some places are now 400% above normal in the rainfall department. Again, crazy numbers
What is ahead for the region?
The good news is that outside of a few thunderstorms most of the area has been dry today. Thank goodness. Collective cheer. Who isn’t tired of the rain.
We have a series of disturbances that are going to approach our region over the coming days. Each disturbance will trigger heavy to severe thunderstorms.
The good news for us locally (not good news for others) is that the focus of this event will be further north and east than the last few events. With that said, this pattern will need to be CLOSELY monitored. Any shift further south and west of the disturbances will mean a greater risk locally for flooding rainfall totals and severe thunderstorms.
Right now that appears to be centered more towards central IL into IN and parts of northern and central KY (eastern perhaps).
Let’s look at three models and their rainfall forecast numbers. See how everything is centered more east and north?
Images are from weatherbell.com
Notice how some of the data misses us completely.
An outbreak of severe storms is forecast for Monday. This event will likely be centered on Illinois and Indiana. Perhaps into parts of Kentucky. Right now it appears the heaviest storms will be just north and east of most of my forecast counties. But, close enough to warrant our attention.
As always, pay attention to updates as we move forward.
Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible on Monday across the risk zone.
Let me show you a few maps.
Here is the Sunday and Sunday night severe weather outlook
These are the probabilities for severe weather. Notice we are clipped by the 2% and 5% numbers. Basically that means the risk for severe weather is low. You can see greater chances north and east of our region.
More concerning is the Monday outlook. This will need to be CLOSELY monitored. Any shift could be a problem for our region.
Right now it appears the greatest risk will be over our northern and eastern counties. Extreme instability is forecast by the models across parts of Illinois and Indiana.
The SPC may upgrade part of the red region to a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms on Monday and Monday night. Note that this does include parts of our region. Monitor updates, as always.
Severe weather?
Sunday…small risk.
Sunday night…small risk.
Monday…Severe storms are likely in the Ohio Valley. Monitor updates on this event. A significant weather event is possible over parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky. Perhaps a little outside of my forecast counties, but close enough that we should pay attention.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. The rest of July appears to be shaping up as stormy. Heavy rain potential near our region.
2. Possible heat towards first week of August (not that it isn’t occasionally hot now)
I don’t see a lot of changes in the overall pattern. What we may end up with is the ridge of high pressure nosing into our region a bit more frequently over the coming 1-2 weeks. When that happens we will dry out a little bit and experience hotter temperatures.
When the ridge is pushed back south and east then you can expect frequent rounds of torrential rainfall. That has been the pattern the last 2 weeks. And, it may be the pattern for the next 2 weeks.
I am thinking that the axis of heaviest rain will shift a bit further north and east. That would mean northern and central Illinois into southern Indiana and Kentucky. But, perhaps just a little bit east of most of my forecast counties.
Close enough, however, that we should monitor. We are going to be nipped, at least, by these events.
This is a concern for the Ohio River. We don’t need more rain in the basin. Although the rivers may drop over the coming days, we may see additional rises over the coming weeks.
When the trough or northwest flow wins out then you can expect flooding rainfall amounts. Severe storms, as well.
An active pattern will continue for the Ohio Valley. Especially true since it is July. Normally a quiet month.
We may see a heat wave towards the very end of July into the first week of August. I am monitoring the typhoons in the Pacific Ocean and there eventual impact on our region. Occasionally this can mean a stronger trough over the Eastern United States. When that happens we will have cooler temperatures and above normal rainfall.
Lot to watch over the coming weeks.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
7 Day Rainfall Forecast (subject to some shifting around as I figure out where the heaviest storms will track)
WPC map
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is a TWO for Saturday night into Sunday night. It is possible that a THREE will be necessary for our northern and eastern counties on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Keep that in mind.
Saturday night – Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. Level TWO
Sunday – Severe storms can’t completely be ruled out over our northern and eastern counties. But, the overall risk appears small. Monitor updates. Level TWO
Sunday Night – Severe storms can’t completely be ruled out over our northern and eastern counties. But, the overall risk appears small. Level TWO
Monday and Monday night – Severe storms are possible in and near our region. An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast for parts of Illinois into Kentucky. Again, perhaps our northern and eastern counties. Monitor updates. Level THREE
Hot temperatures. Heat index values above 100.
I will be monitoring for the potential of severe storms on Sunday night into Tuesday. Questionable about placement of the most intense storms. Our northern and eastern counties will stand the best chances for severe weather. Monitor updates.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
