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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny and hot. Humid. A chance for a thunderstorm, especially over our far northern and northeast/east counties.
Temperatures: Highs from 88 to 94 degrees
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% chance or less
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then lightning and heavy rain
Saturday night – Mostly clear and mild. Small chance for a storm.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 70’s
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny and hot. Humid. A chance for a storm over our northern and northeastern counties. Some chances for storms on Sunday night moving into the region from the north, as well. Perhaps a complex of storms.
Temperatures: Highs from 88 to 94 degrees
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% chance or less
What impact is expected? Not expecting problems.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Can a weatherman get a dry day around here?
2. Warm weekend ahead. Small chances for storms.
3. Storms returning possibly as early as Sunday night. Moving in from the north.
4. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
It has been non-stop for this entire week. Weatherwise, at least. Friday afternoon was supposed to be mostly dry. But, that did not work out. Seems like we have not been able to shake this boundary that keep sparking thunderstorms.
By Saturday the boundary will have moved. This will leave our region on the edge of the active weather to the north and northeast and the ridge of high pressure to the south and southwest.
The ridge of high pressure will be associated with warm and humid air.
If a storm were to form on Saturday and Sunday (during the day) it would probably be over our north or northeast counties. With that said, the atmosphere will be unstable in the region. I can’t completely rule out a pop-up thunderstorm just about anywhere. But, the odds favor it staying dry in most locations. Monitor updates, as always.
Expect high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday to reach into the 90’s.
Severe weather?
Friday evening will bring a small risk for a severe storms.
Otherwise, Saturday and Sunday should only bring small thunderstorm chances. I could not keep it completely dry, but believe most areas will remain dry.
Storms may return on Sunday night and Monday. Will need to monitor for some heavy storms. Low confidence on this part of the forecast.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Northwest flow returns on Sunday night into early next week
We should return to our northwest flow aloft by Sunday night into next week. That means more active weather with rounds of thunderstorms on and off. Same as the last 2 weeks.
Some heavy rain again possible.
I will try to go into more coverage on this over the weekend.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rainfall totals for Thursday night and Friday will be scattered. Isolated on Friday.
Friday evening storms could produce 1-3″ of rain in pockets. Some areas will not experience rain on Friday evening, keep that in mind.
Widely scattered storms on Saturday and Sunday. Most areas will remain dry. Where storms occur they could drop heavy rain.
Sunday night and Monday will bring another chance for storms. Locally heavy rain again a possibility. But, lower than normal confidence on that part of the forecast.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is a TWO for Friday night. Saturday and Sunday will be a ONE. Although, most areas should remain dry.
Friday Night Severe Weather Outlook – Isolated severe storms possible during the evening hours.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated thunderstorms are possible.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated thunderstorms are possible.
Heavy storms on Friday evening are the main concern.
Saturday and Sunday just warm and humid. Isolated storms can’t be ruled out.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
