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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Saturday – Becoming cloudy as the day wears on. Thickening clouds. A chance for a light shower. High temperatures will be in the 40’s. Mainly southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Confidence is high in this part of the forecast.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – No school today. Chances of schools being delayed because of the weather? 0%
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – No school today.
Saturday night – Cloudy with rain developing. Along or near I-64 there could be a few sleet pellets mixed in with the rain at the start. Low temperatures will be in the 30’s. Southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Confidence is high in this part of the forecast.
Sunday – Cloudy. Rain. Some moderate downpours possible from time to time. High temperatures will be in the 40’s over southern Illinois and upper 40’s over western Kentucky. Temperatures may fall late in the afternoon hours from west to east. We might even see some light snow showers or flurries towards evening – more likely that would happen Sunday night as the cold air arrives in full force. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph switching to the northwest late in the day. Confidence is high in this part of the forecast.
Sunday night – Windy at times. Cloudy with rain ending as some light snow showers or flurries. Might need to watch for some slick spots on Monday morning if moisture remains on the roadways. Low temperatures will be in the lower 20’s. Northwest winds at 10-20 mph. Gusts to 30=35 mph. Confidence is medium in this part of the forecast.
Monday – Partly cloudy and colder. Highs from 26 to 32 degrees. Northwest winds at 10-15 mph. Confidence is high in this part of the forecast.
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Well, the storm system that I have been tracking for 2 or 3 weeks is finally arriving. Looks to be another rain maker for our region (go figure). This system will spread clouds into the region today. The clouds will thicken as the day wears on.
Some showers may also start to show up on radar before the day is over.
We will see temperatures today climb well into the 40’s. Well above freezing.
Today’s weather map
Rain will become widespread tonight. You will see radar blossom with precipitation from west to east. By Sunday morning rain will be covering most of the region.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Rain will continue through the day on Sunday. Some moderate rain from time to time is even possible. Don’t believe we will have any thunderstorms this time around.
Rainfall totals from Saturday night into Sunday evening will likely be in the 0.40″-0.80″ range. We may see some local spots receive 1″ or so. Some of the data has increased rainfall totals. We need the rain. Hopefully the totals pan out.
By Sunday night cold air will move into the region. By Monday morning we may see upper teens over the northern counties of southern Illinois and lower 20’s elsewhere. Brrrr
Rain may briefly change to light snow or flurries on Sunday evening and night. Maybe. Not expecting anything major. If there is any moisture left on the road then we could see some slick spots early Monday morning. Winds will pick up Sunday night and that might dry the roads off fairly quickly. Just a note of caution in case that is an issue.
If you are traveling north into central Illinois then you will definitely want to monitor updated forecasts. Heavy snow is likely over a large chunk of central and northern Illinois on Saturday into Sunday night. Blowing and drifting snow, as well.
Monday will bring cold temperatures with highs only in the 20’s.
The uncertainties part of the e-journal spells out where I am not confident in the forecast. I always tell people to pay attention to the whole forecast and not just the part they want to hear.
Weather is rarely yes or no. Weather forecasts are made up of probabilities. If someone tells you that it is going to snow 1.7 inches in your backyard then I am not sure you should trust their forecast. Why? Because meteorology has not come that far. Not yet, anyway. I can tell you that you should receive 1″-3″ of snow. Yes. I can do that. I can not tell you that your backyard will receive 1.7 inches of snow. Sorry, if you are looking for that forecast then look elsewhere.
Uncertainties in today’s update – Not a lot of uncertainties right now with the ongoing forecast. This system has been tricky to forecast over the last few days. Model data was all over the place. But, I recognized that and held off on banking on one solution over another. Good thing! I did see some snow maps calling for 3″-5″ over southern Illinois. Again, this is why you should not believe snowfall prediction maps days in advance. I keep saying that 🙂
There is some uncertainty on Sunday nights forecast. How quickly the dry air arrives vs the moisture leaving. We may see a quick burst of light snow showers or flurries as the cold air arrives. With wet ground conditions I suspect this would not amount to much. Maybe a dusting or so in spots.
We may have some slick spots if moisture remains on roadways Sunday night as temperatures fall into the 20’s. Keep this in mind. Most roads have been treated. Most of that will likely wash off the road with all the rain expected.
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Updated rainfall totals and temperatures for Sunday. Increased both slightly.
Perhaps some light snow or flurries on Sunday night as the storm pulls away and colder air arrives.
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The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – the wild card for the next 24 hours will be rainfall totals on Sunday. Can someone pull off an inch of rain? Maybe over our southern counties near the KY/TN border.
The next wild card is Sunday night. Will we see some light snow showers or flurries as the cold air arrives and the rain comes to an end.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO
Warnings
Will I need to take action?
If you have travel plans northward into central and northern Illinois then check road conditions as a significant winter storm is likely to cause havoc in those areas.
Otherwise, umbrella weather!!!
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Precipitation chances start to increase on Saturday afternoon and especially on Saturday night and Sunday. Widespread precipitation will overspread our region on Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.
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No winter weather in the forecast today.
Some light snow or flurries can’t be ruled out Sunday night. Not expecting any major accumulation.
Small chances of a few slick spots on Sunday night or Monday morning if moisture remains on the roadways as temps fall into the 20’s. Winds should help dry everything out fairly quickly.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Next week will bring below normal temperatures and likely drier than normal conditions. That means not much relief on the drought front. Hopefully the weekend rain or rain/snow will help a little bit.
Portions of our region are in moderate drought (the tan color). The yellow area is considered abnormally dry. This does cover part of southern Illinois, as well.
Here are the very latest drought numbers
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
