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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Sunday – Raw. Chilly. Cloudy with periods of steady rain and rain showers. A moderate downpour of rain possible. Small chance for a rumble of thunder near the KY/TN State line. Rain will be more widespread in the morning vs the afternoon hours. Highs in the 40’s over my forecast counties. Highs might briefly touch 50 in west Kentucky. South winds at 10-15 mph turning out of the west late at 10-20 mph. Temperatures may fall towards evening over the northwest part of the area as the cold front approaches and moves through. Confidence is high in this part of the forecast.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – No school today. Chances of schools being delayed because of the weather? 0%
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – No school today.
Sunday night – Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible early then a snow flurry or snow shower possible late. Turning colder with gusty northwest winds. Lows will be in the 20’s. Perhaps some teens over parts of southern Illinois. Winds from the northwest at 10-25 mph with gusts above 30 mph. Confidence is high in this part of the forecast.
Monday – Mix of sun and clouds. Colder. Highs only in the 20’s. Northwest winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph early. Winds tapering during the afternoon hours. Confidence is high in this part of the forecast.
Monday night – Partly cloudy and cold. Low temperatures mainly in the 20’s. Northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Confidence is high in this part of the forecast.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy and cold. Highs mainly in the 40’s. South/southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Confidence is high in this part of the forecast.
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
The word on the street for Sunday is going to be RAIN! Widespread rain will cover the region today. Rainfall totals of 0.40″-0.80″ will be common-place. A few spots might end up with more than 1″.
This is much needed rainfall for some of our local counties.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Colder air will rush in tonight. The moisture will be exiting as the cold air arrives. That means that the chances for snow are slim. Maybe some flurries or a light snow shower. Nothing significant.
Gusty winds tonight behind the cold front as the cold air rushes in. Winds will likely gust above 25-30 mph at times.
Here is the NAM forecast for winds (not gusts)
If you are traveling towards central or northern Illinois then you better check ahead on road conditions. A major winter storm is encompassing those areas. Snowfall totals of greater than 6″ will likely occur over a wide area. Not the best driving conditions.
Colder temperatures for your Monday morning commute. Expect teens over parts of southern Illinois and 20’s over the rest of our area. Brrr – but not extreme brrrr
Tuesday won’t be quite as cold as Monday, but still on the cool side. Seasonable temperatures on Tuesday.
I am watching another cold front for the middle of the work-week. It might bring some more precipitation and another shot of cold air.
This morning’s weather map
All of that green is rain. The blue is snow. The small purple area is a mix.
By this evening the cold front will be moving through our region with falling temperatures.
Speaking of falling temperatures – let’s take a look at those temps this evening
This is for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning – time series
Follow the cold air 🙂
Time stamp on this one is 5 PM Sunday Evening
Time stamp on this one is 11 pm Sunday night
And finally early Monday morning at sunrise. Some brrrrr temps on that map!
The uncertainties part of the e-journal spells out where I am not confident in the forecast. I always tell people to pay attention to the whole forecast and not just the part they want to hear.
Weather is rarely yes or no. Weather forecasts are made up of probabilities. If someone tells you that it is going to snow 1.7 inches in your backyard then I am not sure you should trust their forecast. Why? Because meteorology has not come that far. Not yet, anyway. I can tell you that you should receive 1″-3″ of snow. Yes. I can do that. I can not tell you that your backyard will receive 1.7 inches of snow. Sorry, if you are looking for that forecast then look elsewhere.
Uncertainties in today’s update – Not too much to talk about in the uncertainties department. Forecast looks on track and I have high confidence in its verification.
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No changes to the forecast!
No major concerns. There could be a few slick spots late Sunday night into Monday morning if moisture remains on a few roadways. Strong winds should dry the roads off. I do not believe this is much of a concern. But, I will mention it.
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The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – No wild card today.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO/ONE (Tiny chance of thunder near the KY/TN State Line today)
Warnings
Will I need to take action?
If you have travel plans northward into central and northern Illinois then check road conditions as a significant winter storm is likely to cause havoc in those areas.
Otherwise, umbrella weather!!!
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rainfall totals from this event will range from 0.40″-0.80″ with a few pockets of 1″ possible.
No additional rain or snow on Monday or Tuesday.
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Maybe a few snow flurries tonight. Nothing major. Sorry snow fans. February is starting out like January – a snowbummer.
I will be watching a system towards the middle of the week. A new cold front arrives with perhaps some snow or snow showers? Right now we place this in the “wait and see” category. I will have more information as we move forward into the first part of the work week. Stay tuned.
Remember, we never count our snowflakes before they hatch.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Some cold air this week. Below normal temperatures will be the overall trend for the week. We will briefly see temperatures rise a bit on Tuesday before yet another cold front arrives on Wednesday night/Thursday. This front will bring another shot at cold air. It may even bring some precipitation.
It is a bit early to make a call on the precipitation part of that forecast. I am sure about the colder air. I am not sure about how much moisture will be available to interact with the front. Monitor updates as we move forward.
Let’s check out the high temperature departure maps for Wednesday into Friday. You can see that on Wednesday temperatures will be near normal. Then, after the cold front moves through the area, temperatures will go below normal again. For at least a few days.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Wednesday high temperature departures – how many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be on Friday
Thursday high temperature departures – how many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be on Thursday (the image below)
Friday high temperature departures – how many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be on Friday
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
