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A quick glance at the next seven days.
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The wind forecast
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Friday through Friday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. The highest chance of lightning will arrive on Saturday. Lightning is also possible on Sunday. The chance on Sunday should be less than Saturday afternoon and night. Monitor updates if you have concerns.
- Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am closely watching Saturday and Saturday night for the potential of strong thunderstorms. I can’t rule out a few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is likely Saturday afternoon and night. Pockets of flooding could occur. The highest chance of that would be over Kentucky and Tennessee.
- Is ACCUMULATING snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Will wind chill values drop below 10 degrees? No
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What changes might occur in the forecast? Important forecast notes.
Rain chances on Sunday afternoon into Monday will need to be monitored as a second wave forms along the front.
The bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity will arrive on Saturday afternoon and night. It will continue into early Sunday morning.
The highest rain totals will occur Saturday night/Sunday AM. Likely between 7 PM and 8 AM.
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December 27, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence.
Friday’s Forecast: AM fog. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 62° South IL 56° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1 Low
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered after midnight
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:24 AM
Moonset: 6:15 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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December 28, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence.
Saturday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. A chance of an AM shower. Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up as we move deeper into the afternoon and evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° SE MO 60° to 65° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° West KY 60° to 65° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered AM. Becoming more numerous during the afternoon and evening.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning,
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Strong and gusty winds. Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain. A few storms could produce gusty wind.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 100% IL ~ 100% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. A few strong thunderstorms with gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 9:12 AM
Moonset: 7:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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December 29, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence.
Sunday’s Forecast: Cloudy with rain showers likely. A thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 10 to 25 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous AM hours. Becoming scattered PM.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy and turning colder. Rain likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 33° to 36° South IL 33° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° West KY 34° to 36° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
1Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes. Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 9:50 am
Moonset: 8:13 pm
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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December 30, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence.
Monday’s Forecast: Morning clouds. A slight chance of a shower before 9 AM. Becoming partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Ending.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 32° SE MO 25° to 30° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° West KY 25° to 30° NW TN 26° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
1Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:24 am
Moonset: 9:12 pm
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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December 31, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence.
Tuesday’s Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28° SE MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 25° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: West at 5 to 10 mph.
1Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:55 AM
Moonset: 10:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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January 1, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence.
Wednesday’s Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° SE MO 46° to 48° South IL 46° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 46° to 48° NW TN 46° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 33° to 36° South IL 33° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
1Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:22 AM
Moonset: 11:05 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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- Damp conditions Friday night into Saturday night/Sunday morning.
- Locally heavy rain Saturday night.
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
The icon can mean rain or snow.
Click to enlarge these graphics.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through January 3rd: A few of the thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and night could produce 50+ mph wind gusts. Lightning. There is a low-end risk of a few storms becoming severe with damaging wind gusts. The tornado risk is low, but not zero.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.
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- The main weather story will be the wind and rain this weekend.
- Rain chances return Friday night into Sunday night. Peak chances will be Saturday PM.
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Advice:
Monitor updates concerning locally heavy rain, thunderstorms, and strong and gusty winds on Saturday and Sunday.
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Weather Forecast Analysis
The main weather story is the upcoming weekend storm system.
Locally heavy rain is likely this weekend. Some locations will exceed an inch of rain. Thunderstorms can produce even higher totals.
I will post some future-cast radars below.
The bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity will arrive on Saturday afternoon and night. It will continue into early Sunday morning.
The highest rain totals will occur Saturday night/Sunday AM. Likely between 7 PM and 8 AM.
I do encourage you to monitor updates this weekend concerning a few of the storms producing strong and gusty winds.
Outside of the storms, we will also have strong winds because of the tight barometric pressure gradient. The center of the low pressure will pass well to our north. It will be a tight low. A deep low. That means strong winds.
Non-thunderstorm wind gusts this weekend should exceed 35 mph and in some locations will exceed 45 mph.
Here is the wind gust forecast animation. Time-stamp upper left.
Any thunderstorms that develop could also produce high winds.
I am closely monitoring trends towards a second area of low pressure that may develop on Sunday and Sunday night.
This would cause the rain chances to last longer into Sunday.
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SHORT and LONG RANGE SNOW OUTLOOK:
I am currently not tracking any winter storms for our local area.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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Here is the NAM model guidance future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. You can see the timing of the showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.
The heaviest rain will be Saturday night/Sunday morning.
Here is the NAM 3K model guidance. A higher resolution model than the one above.
Here is the GFS future-cast radar. Different model. Each model can have some differences.
The NAM, in theory, should be more accurate since it is a higher resolution model.
The brighter colors represent heavier showers and thunderstorms.
The heaviest rain should occur Saturday night/Sunday morning.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers December 27th through January 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers January 3rd through the 9th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.90″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers January 10th through the 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
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You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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