January 26, 2019: Quick holiday weather update.

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A quick glance at the next seven days.

The wind forecast

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Thursday through Thursday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. The highest chance of lightning will arrive on Saturday.
Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am closely watching Saturday and Saturday night for the potential of strong thunderstorms. I can’t rule out a few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is likely Saturday afternoon and night. Pockets of flooding could occur. The highest chance of that would be over Kentucky and Tennessee.
Is ACCUMULATING snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Will wind chill values drop below 10 degrees? No

What changes might occur in the forecast? Important forecast notes.

No significant changes are anticipated through Monday.

The bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity will arrive on Saturday afternoon and night. It will continue into early Sunday morning.

The highest rain totals will occur Saturday night/Sunday AM. Likely between 7 PM and 8 AM.

December 26, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence.
Thursday’s Forecast: Quite a few clouds. A sprinkle is possible during the morning hours. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° SE MO 65° to 70° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 5q° South IL 48° to 5q° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 54° West KY 48° to 54° NW TN 48° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming south at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:31 AM
Moonset: 5:18 PM
The phase of the moon: New

December 27, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence.
Friday’s Forecast: AM fog. Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 62° South IL 56° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1 Low
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered after midnight
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:24 AM
Moonset: 6:15 PM
The phase of the moon: New

December 28, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence.
Saturday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. A chance of an AM shower. Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up as we move deeper into the afternoon and evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° SE MO 60° to 65° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° West KY 60° to 65° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered AM. Becoming more numerous during the afternoon and evening.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning,
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Strong and gusty winds. Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain. A few storms could produce gusty wind.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 100% IL ~ 100% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. A few strong thunderstorms with gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 9:12 AM
Moonset: 7:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 29, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence.
Sunday’s Forecast: Cloudy. AM showers and some thunderstorms. The cold front will advance eastward through the day. Shower activity will become less numerous as we move into the afternoon and evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 10 to 25 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous AM hours. Becoming scattered PM.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy and turning colder. Light showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 33° to 36° South IL 33° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° West KY 34° to 36° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
1Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:50 am
Moonset: 8:13 pm
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 30, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence.
Monday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers or snow flurries. Cooler. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 32° SE MO 25° to 30° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° West KY 25° to 30° NW TN 26° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
1Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:24 am
Moonset: 9:12 pm
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Damp conditions Friday night into Saturday night/Sunday morning.
Locally heavy rain Saturday night.

These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is low confidence.

The icon can mean rain or snow.

Click to enlarge these graphics.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through January 3rd: A few of the thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and night could produce 50+ mph wind gusts. Lightning. There is a low-end risk of a few storms becoming severe with damaging wind gusts. The tornado risk is low, but not zero.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.

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The main weather story will be the wind and rain this weekend.
Rain chances return Friday night into Sunday night. Peak chances will be Saturday PM.

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Advice:

Monitor updates concerning locally heavy rain, thunderstorms, and strong and gusty winds on Saturday and Sunday.

Weather Forecast Analysis

The main weather story is the upcoming weekend storm system.

The daily details (above) covered most of it.

Locally heavy rain is likely this weekend. Some locations will exceed an inch of rain. Thunderstorms can produce even higher totals.

I will post some future-cast radars below.

The bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity will arrive on Saturday afternoon and night. It will continue into early Sunday morning.

The highest rain totals will occur Saturday night/Sunday AM. Likely between 7 PM and 8 AM.

I do encourage you to monitor updates this weekend concerning a few of the storms producing strong and gusty winds.

Outside of the storms, we will also have strong winds because of the tight barometric pressure gradient. The center of the low pressure will pass well to our north. It will be a tight low. A deep low. That means strong winds.

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts this weekend should exceed 35 mph and in some locations will exceed 45 mph.

Any thunderstorms that develop could also produce high winds.

SHORT and LONG RANGE SNOW OUTLOOK:

I am currently not tracking any winter storms for our local area.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

Here is the NAM model guidance future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. You can see the timing of the showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.

The heaviest rain will be Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Here is the GFS future-cast radar. Different model. Each model can have some differences.

The NAM, in theory, should be more accurate since it is a higher resolution model.

The brighter colors represent heavier showers and thunderstorms.

The heaviest rain should occur Saturday night/Sunday morning.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers December 26th through January 2nd

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers January 3rd through January 9th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 41 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 24 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.90″ to 2.20″

This outlook covers January 3rd through January 16th

Click on the image to expand it.

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Precipitation outlook

LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.