Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 21, 2016: Watching a southern storm system

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

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Wednesday night – Cloudy.  A small chance for freezing drizzle towards sunrise.  Especially the Missouri Bootheel into far southern Illinois and then south and east of that line.
Temperatures:  Lows from 25-30
Winds:  Northeast winds 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation
? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?  Isolated to none. 

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Depending on what happens on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, there could be some slick roads in the area.  Monitor updates.

 

Thursday – Cloudy.  A 40% chance for precipitation.  Freezing rain and freezing drizzle possible.  Sleet.  Precipitation could change to rain if the warm air advances a bit further north.  Monitor updates.  It only takes a little bit of frozen precipitation to cause problems.
Temperatures:  Highs will range 30-35 degrees
Winds
East and northeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? 
Scattered

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  Monitor updates.

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Monitor updates as a new storm system may bring some precipitation to the area.

If everything comes together a expected then expect a State of Emergency in the State of Kentucky and perhaps Tennessee.  Road closures will be possible in the areas with the heavier snow and ice totals.

Power outages can’t be ruled out if freezing rain develops.   Lower confidence on this subject.  Strong winds are a concern.

Questions remain on storm track.  How far north to take the precip.  Stay tuned!

Thursday night – Cloudy.  A wintry mix possible.  Especially far southeast Missouri into far southern Illinois and then northwest Tennessee and western Kentucky.  Heavy precipitation possible.  Ice, snow, and sleet. 
Temperatures:  Lows from 25 to 30 degrees
Winds:  Northeast winds at 15 mph.  Gusts over 25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation
? 70%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps none far northwest counties of SE Missouri and southern Illinois.  Scattered to widespread far southern and southeast counties along the KY/TN border.  Monitor updates.  Low confidence.  A lot hinges on storm track.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is MEDIUM
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  YES
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? If snow and ice develop then slick roads and gusty winds.  

 

Friday – Snow, sleet, and freezing rain.  Thunderstorms possible over southern counties in Kentucky and Tennessee.  Significant amounts of precipitation possible.
Temperatures:  Highs will range 24 to 30 degrees
Winds:  North and northwest at 15-30 mph.  Gusty winds possible.

What is the chance for precipitation? 30% west and north counties of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois and 70% for areas further south and east in Kentucky and Tennessee.  Further south and east you drive the better chance for precipitation
Coverage of precipitation? 
None far northwest counties of the region to widespread perhaps far southeast counties.  Monitor updates. 

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? YES

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Likely.
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Could be slick roads if snow and wintry mix do develop in or near our region.  Monitor updates. Can not rule out power outages.

 

Friday night – Cloudy.  Some lingering snow showers possible southern and southeastern counties in west Tennessee into south central Kentucky.  Otherwise, elsewhere just clouds and perhaps a snow shower.
Temperatures:  Lows from 20-25
Winds:  North and northwest at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation
? 20% west and 50% southeast counties near the Kentucky and Tennessee border
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  Yes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Not the best weather for outside activities.

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? Hazardous road conditions.

 

Saturday – Partly sunny and cold.
Temperatures:  Highs will range 30-35 degrees
Winds:  Northwest at 10-15 mph

What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? 
None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Could be travel issues over parts of the area.
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Hazardous road conditions over part of the area.

 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Slick spots on Wednesday night
2.  Major winter storm on Thursday night and Friday for some of our counties
3.  A dry weekend ahead
4.  Rain possible on Monday?
January 20, 2016 (update issued Wednesday evening at 11 pm)

First, thank you to everyone who has been signing up for the text alerts.  Tremendous help covering my costs and time.  Appreciate it!  It appears people really like be told when there is a new update.

Second, thank you for all the snow and ice reports last night.  Photographs, as well.  That is always useful.

We have another winter weather event headed our way for Thursday into Friday.  But, large and significant differences among different forecasters as to what we can expect in our local area.  And, that should tell you how complex the forecast is.

An area of low pressure will develop over the next 24 hours well to our south.  Near the Texas and Louisiana border.  This system will push northeast on Thursday into Friday.  Eventually tracking to our southeast.

It will or should track through central Mississippi into Alabama and eventually transfer its energy to the east.  It could shift north and west.  If it does shift north and west then changing forecasts will occur.  Monitor updates frequently.

As you may know, a large and potentially historic blizzard is being forecast for areas well to our east.  No doubt, although I have not turned the TV on today, the national media and The Weather Channel is all over this story.  Normally we shiver in the cold when it comes to national media coverage!  But, hey, at least we have each other!

Here are my current forecast thoughts.  First shot at how this will unfold.  Evolve.

The low pressure will pass to our south.  But, how far south?  That is the question.  I continue to update the information as it arrives.

If the track of the low shifts north by 50-100 air miles then the chances for precipitation will increase dramatically over our region.  Keep that in mind.  The track of this storm is certainly not set in stone.  And, 50-100 air miles is but a birds sneeze when you are talking about the atmosphere.

I am concerned about large amounts of snow and ice somewhere in the region.  Confidence is low as to where that will occur.  Monitor updates.

What I am currently concerned about is a thin glaze, once again, developing on some roadways over the coming 24-36 hours.  If this does develop then glazed roads will become a big issue in the area.

The number one cause for winter weather accidents and deaths, on the roadways, can be attributed to light freezing rain and freezing drizzle events.  As a matter of fact, some of you on this thread may have lost friends in December of 2008 from just such an event.  Accumulations from that event were less than 0.05″.  But, it caused havoc on roadways.

Thus, this is my first concern for this next event.

There is a chance that a wintry mix will develop on Thursday morning over parts of northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee.  I have a 40% confidence level, at this time, in this happening.  Northern parts of our area will need to be monitored.  Not sure how far north precipitation will develop.  Light precipitation.

Forty percent is considered a medium confidence level.

How far north the 32° line advances on Thursday is another question still on the table.  It is possible that parts of our region will rise above freezing on Thursday.  Especially true because the snow event last night was in the 1-3″ range.  Light.

If the freezing line advances north on Thursday afternoon then the precipitation will turn to plain old rain.  Which is good.

As the storm deepens and intensifies, Thursday night and Friday morning, colder air will be pulled into our region.  Thus, precipitation will change over to snow.  Especially true for our far southern and southeastern counties (KY/TN).

I want to emphasize that any ANY change in the storms track (the area of low pressure) and this forecast will completely change.

As it stands, expect the forecast to evolve over the coming 24 hours.

We may be dealing with a wintry mix on Thursday night and Friday morning over some of our local counties.  Heavy precipitation is possible.  I can’t rule out thunderstorms.

Bottom line is that I am giving you my initial first forecast on this event.  Up until now I told you that I did not have a forecast prepared.  Now, I do.

Remember, weather is not static.  Weather is fluid.  The storm system will evolve over the next two days.  Adjustments will be needed.

We may have some rain on Monday.  Still some time to look over the data for that event.

Couple of graphics from Weatherbell.com

These graphics are guidance and NOT gospel.

They are future-cast radar images.  What radar MIGHT look like over the coming two day period.

ONE model guidance opinion.  Keep that in mind.  Again, models are guidance.  They are rarely spot on.

This first image is for Thursday morning.  This does indicate some freezing drizzle or freezing rain in the area.  Sleet, perhaps.  We will see how this goes.  Lower than normal confidence.  ANY freezing rain and freezing drizzle can cause issues with untreated roadways.

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Moving ahead to 1 pm on Thursday.  Watch the red line.  That is the freezing line.  It attempts to move northward.

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Moving ahead to Thursday night around 11 pm.  Watch how rapidly this storm to our south grows.  It becomes quite the beast.

Large precipitation shield moving north and east.  Will it clip some of our counties?  Perhaps.

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Moving ahead to Friday at 6 am.  Large shield of precipitation over parts of our area.  BUT, how far north will it advance.  LOT of questions remain on that subject.  Forecasts will evolve over the coming 24 hours.

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Finally, moving ahead to Friday late morning.  The system should be pulling away from our area.  Again, we will see how this pans out.

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Light freezing drizzle possible Thursday morning.

Heavy snow and ice possible Thursday night into Friday evening.  Monitor updates.

 

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Wednesday night – No snow or ice anticipated.  Roadways may still have slick spots from the previous precipitation event.
Thursday – Monitor updates as a new system takes shape to our southwest
Friday – Monitor updates as a new system takes shape to our southwest
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated, at this time
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated, at this time

 

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Increased wording on the next winter storm (11 pm edit)

 

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Main concerns will be slick roadways.  Side roads, mainly.  Main roads should continue to improve.

Watch for black ice.  That is water that refreezes at night.  Pavement could appear to be wet, but actually be ice.

Power outages Thursday night and Friday.

Significant winter storm possible.  Closely monitor updates.  Could be a big one for someone in the region.

willineedtotakeaction

Slick roadways possible on Wednesday night.  Mainly side roads.

And, monitor updates on the potential for some precipitation as we push into Thursday and Friday.  More centered on Thursday evening into Friday.  System has slowed down a bit.

 

wildcard

The wild card for the next 24-48 hours will be whether or not parts of our region are impacted by an area of low pressure that will track to our south.  Monitor updates, as always.

 

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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Heavy precipitation possible Thursday night into Friday evening.

There remain questions as to just how far south it tracks.  And, this will need to be closely monitored over the next 24-48 hours.

Perhaps another round of precipitation on Monday.  For now, that looks to be rain.  Still several days away.

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com



WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

 

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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