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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a chance for drizzle and some light rain showers. Mild. Highs will into the 50’s to near 60. Southwest winds at 10-20 mph. If the sun comes out tomorrow then 60’s would be possible. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – No School Today – chances of schools being delayed because of the weather
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – No school today
Sunday night – Cloudy and turning colder. Lows in the 30’s. Northwest winds at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is
Monday – Cloudy and cooler. Highs only in the 40’s. Northwest winds at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is
Monday night – Partly cloudy. Chilly. Lows in the 20’s. North winds at 10 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is
Tuesday – A few clouds – otherwise sunny. Highs in the 40’s. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
A cold front will advance through the region on Sunday. Clouds and light rain or drizzle will accompany the front. This is especially true over far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. This is not a big system and moisture is limited. It will certainly not be as nice as Saturday was. Sorry about that! You knew Saturday’s weather couldn’t last. Not in February, at least.
Temperatures will be above normal today (Sunday) Quite a bit of the nation will experience above normal temperatures. This is not going to last. Let me show you a couple of maps
Today’s temperature anomalies. How much above or below normal will temperatures be? Click image for larger view. Image is from tropicaltidbits.com
Now let’s take a look ahead. See the difference? This is for Thursday. Another cold shot headed our way. And, this won’t be the last one. Some bitterly cold air may move into the region next week (week of the 16th-17th).
We will see southerly winds shift to the northwest on Sunday evening and night. That means what? Northwest winds in the winter. Colder air. Right! All good things much come to an end. Monday will be quite a bit colder than your weekend has been. But, not extreme. So, I guess that is the consolation prize. Colder, but not extreme.
Here is this morning’s weather map. Note the cold front to our north. That front will slide south into our region tonight.
High pressure with periodic cold fronts will be the rule over the coming week. Each front will bring an increase in clouds and maybe a light rain or snow shower. Nothing major. Gusty winds will accompany each front. We will see small increases in temperatures ahead of the cold fronts and then below normal temperatures once they pass.
I suspect next week might be a little more interesting with some strong signals for some additional cold air to push into portions of the Ohio Valley. See the extended discussion below.
Let’s check out the future-cast radar for Sunday morning at 6 or 7 am. You can see light rain or drizzle in the region. The precipitation is represented by the gray colors. Light is the key word here. Images are from www.weatherbell.com
Let’s move forward into late morning and afternoon. Future-cast radar continues to show some light precipitation in the area. This frame is for the 4 to 6 pm time frame. Still quite a bit of shower activity in the area. Again, light being the key word.
Need to check radar?
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Check out this beautiful photograph from Wunderground.com
This photograph was taken in Cape Elizabeth, Maine. Just wow! The beauty of winter. See more about the photographer at this link…click here
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No significant changes in the overall forecast.
No major concerns. Just some light rain for your Sunday drive.
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The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card today will be rainfall totals. Some places might pick up 0.10″-0.20″. Does not look like much more than that. Some places will only have enough rain to wet the sidewalk. Mainly over far southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO
Will I need to take action?
An umbrella might be necessary with some light drizzle and rain.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Totals are going to be light from this event (what’s new). Total should range from a trace to perhaps 0.10″-0.20″. Not much. Some places may not experience any measurable rainfall.
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No winter weather in today’s forecast. A couple of cold fronts over the coming week could bring some clouds and maybe at the most some light flurries or a snow shower. Each front will be moisture starved (again, what is new). Seems like the same song and dance for the entire winter. Bad sign for the drought.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Well, what is going to happen the rest of the month? Although long range forecasting is a bit of a gamble…there are some signals we can look at for this week and next week. A lot of those signals look pretty darn cold. A large high pressure center is forecast to push out of Canada next week (week of the 16th-21st).
When high pressure moves down from Canada, during the winter months, you can expect a lot of cold air underneath that high pressure. And, it appears that is what will happen for our region.
A bit of a battle is going to set up between the above and below normal temperatures for the rest of February. A lot of the data indicates northwest flow. What is northwest flow and what does it mean for our region?
When I tell you northwest flow is developing, in the winter, then it usually means drier than normal conditions and colder than normal. That appears to be where we are heading for the next 2 weeks.
The big question is whether we can pull off a southwest storm system into this mix. A storm coming out of the southwest usually means a lot of precipitation for someone in the Ohio or Tennessee Valley southward. If they go too far south then we end up with clouds and no precipitation. That has happened more than once this winter. Will it happen again? Well, there are some signs of a storm system next weekend into the early part of the following week. Perhaps centered around the 15th-20th. Time will tell on this one. See yesterdays post for some more discussion on this topic and see below.
Let me show you the jet stream for the coming 2 weeks. See how it dives down out of the northwest? That is a northwest flow.
This is Tuesday’s jet stream. Northwest flow.
How about next Saturday? Valentines Day? Northwest flow. See the jet diving down out of Canada into our region?
How about Sunday the 15th? Northwest flow.
Let’s go further out. Strong jet stream diving out of Canada on the 17th of February. Again – northwest flow. Colder air advancing into our region.
Remember how I told you to look for BIG high pressure coming out of Canada during the winter months? That means cold weather.
Well, here you go. This map is for February 18th (next week). BIG high pressure moving out of Minnesota (if this model is correct). That is a 1045 mb high! Impressive. Whether it is exactly the strength is doubtful, but you get the general idea.
IF that high pressure moves into this region then it would mean more cold air – temperatures at least down into the teens. Whether we can reach single digits is a bit more uncertain. Certainly areas to the north will be in the single digits and even colder.
Here are the temperature anomalies for the same time frame. February 18th – check out those departures. Well below normal. Again, if the GFS model is correct then that is an impressive cold blast. If it verifies – again, this is long range forecasting. It’s a gamble.
What might actual temperatures look like? Now, will that verify?
I am on-board with the idea of a series of high pressure centers moving southeast out of Canada over the next 2 weeks. And, that means cold air from time to time. This map shows you the possible low temperatures for February 18th (same time as the high pressure moving into the area)
It probably won’t be quite as cold as shown on this map. But, still – looks cold.
The Canadian model does not show the above happening. It is taking the high pressure into southern Canada and the northeast U.S.
If the Canadian model is right then we don’t see a cold blast. There are different model opinions on how all of this plays out. We will keep watching.
Unfortunately all of this cold air means dry conditions, as well. Check out the latest 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation forecast. BELOW normal for a very large part of the nation. That includes our area.
Hey, did you notice how the below normal precipitation matches the northwest flow of the jet stream? 🙂 Remember that I told you a NW flow usually means drier than normal weather? Well, you can actually see that on these maps. It is nice when science works.
With all of that said…is there a chance for winter weather in our region?
Each cold front will have clouds and perhaps some light rain or snow showers. Not what I call a winter storm. In order to get a decent snow event out of a northwest flow you need an area of low pressure to push southward from Canada. We call these clippers.
There are several clippers coming down, but they will likely be too far northeast of our region to fully impact us. But, we will watch them in case they shift south and west.
A BIGGER question remains – what about a storm system coming out of the southwest United States or a potential merger with a northern storm?
Yes. Some of the data does indicate this happening somewhere between February 15th-20th. Whether it will impact us remains uncertain.
I like the idea of a piece of energy coming out of the southwest. The teleconnections do support this happen. Those involved with the long range cycle see the potential. The EC model has it and the ensembles have it.
Ensembles are model runs – the same model but each run is tweaked just a little bit different from the previous run. The more times the same solution comes up then the more likely it will happen.
I continue to focus on the February 16th-22nd time frame for an event in or near our region. Again, no promises because it is so far out. But, a larger storm may move out of the southwest and northern U.S. – merge and create a bigger precipitation event.
This is what to watch. If you are a winter storm fan then this is the event to focus on. If it happens or not – well, this is the extended range and there are no promises in the extended range.
Here are the GFS ensembles. I circled each run that shows the winter storm. A lot of them show this happening. Does not mean it will happen. But, the odds increase the more times it shows up in the data. And, the GFS is not the only model showing this event. The EC has it, as well (as I mentioned above).
Questions that we will have to monitor…
1. Will this thing come out of the southwest at all?
2. Will it come out in one piece
3. Just how far south will this system be off the west coast as it moves into Mexico/southwest
4. Will it go so far south that it misses us entirely
A lot of the long range data is starting to show the change of seasons. I am seeing more and more of a battle between cold shots and milder air to the south. Starting to see some better moisture down along the Gulf of Mexico from time to time. Just hints of March approaching.
Something to keep in mind as we start to inch towards Meteorological Spring (March 1st)
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
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Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
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Marion, Illinois
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I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
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