Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.   Nice Sunday on tap for the region (maybe Sunday should have been the pick day of the week)
2.  Clouds increase Sunday afternoon/evening
3.  Cold front pushes into the region Sunday night and Monday
4.  Light rain and/or snow showers possible into Tuesday (more east vs west)
5.  Watching a system around the 14th-16th

Sunday will deliver more nice weather.  Temperatures will rise into the 50s.  Above normal temperatures for February.  But, this is not going to last.

A cold front will dip into the region starting on Sunday night and pushing through the region on Monday.  Colder air will follow the front.

Some scattered light rain showers could develop on Sunday evening into the night.  Rainfall totals would be less than 0.10″.  Trace to 0.10″ totals.  Not much.

As the colder air arrives the light rain will turn to light snow showers.  A few snow showers will be possible late Sunday night into Tuesday.  This is not forecast to be a significant winter storm.

These type of events can produce snow showers that look impressive when looking out the window, but quickly move in and out.  Leaving behind a dusting to maybe an inch of snow in some spots.

I have watched events like this drop an inch or so of snow.  And, that is not completely impossible with this setup.  The best chances for that happening would be our northeastern and eastern counties.  That would include areas from Mt Vernon, Illinois into southeast Illinois and then south and east into the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.  Along that line and north/east of that line.  Not saying areas west of that line won’t have some snow showers, they likely will.  Just that the odds do increase as you travel northeast and east in the region.

Remember, a dusting in a situation like this would equal around 0.01″ to 0.03″ of melted precipitation. That is but a hint of liquid.

Would not be surprised to hear someone picked up a dusting to an inch or so of snow before all is said and done.

The rest of the week is forecast to be quiet and chilly.

I am watching a larger system around the 14th-16th.  Long way off for any solid forecasts on that system.  But, I am monitoring.

No winter weather anticipated through Sunday afternoon.

Rain/snow mix possible Sunday night.  Maybe some snow showers Monday and Tuesday.

Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday night – Light rain or rain/snow showers possible.
Monday – Snow showers possible
Tuesday – Snow showers possible
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.

No major changes.

Monitoring some light snow showers on Sunday night – Tuesday.  Perhaps a rain/snow mix on Sunday night.  Colder air on Monday/Tuesday.  Can’t rule out a dusting to an inch or so in a few spots.  Mostly our northeastern counties and eastern counties.

Most likely, no.  I can’t completely rule out some slick spots Monday – Tuesday.  Snow showers can always produce a quick dusting to an inch or so of snow.  And, if this does occur, then some slick spots would be possible.

The wild card in the forecast will be snow showers on Monday and Tuesday.  The best chances for snow showers will run through the Mt Vernon, Illinois area into southeastern Illinois and then east/southeast into Kentucky.  That would include the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.  Areas west of there will likely have some snow showers, as well.  A quick dusting to even an inch or so of snow could occur if snow showers persist.  Our wild card will be whether someone picks up enough snow to dust/white the ground.  It is possible.

 

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Rain and snow showers Sunday night into Tuesday could drop a trace to 0.10″ of precipitation.  That is melted totals.

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO through Thursday.

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.