Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 26, 2024: Warm warm warm. Monitoring thunderstorm chances. Colder mid week, then warmer late week.

 

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES.   Lightning is possible tonight and tomorrow morning.  Lightning is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  MONITOR.  There is a conditional threat of severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday.  I will need to monitor the timing of the cold front.  I will send app messages if necessary.  The primary time-frame of concern will be 12 am Wednesday to 12 PM Wednesday (Tuesday night/Wednesday morning).

Overall, the threat appears limited.

There will be a strong CAP/lid on the atmosphere Tuesday and Tuesday night.  This could hamper thunderstorm development early on.  The CAP should weaken Tuesday night ahead of the cold front.

What is a CAP?  Here is a video.

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The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a few severe storms.   High wind is the primary concern.  Perhaps nickel size hail, as well.

As always, don’t get too caught up in the colors.  The atmosphere doesn’t always obey our colors.

The yellow zone has a slightly higher chance of severe weather than the dark green.  But, a severe storm is a sever storm.  Whether it is in the yellow or dark green doesn’t matter.  The light green is where sub-severe storms are possible.

Tuesday

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Wind forecast and timing of precipitation chances.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  POSSIBLE. Gusty winds today into Wednesday.  Wind gusts above 40 mph can’t be ruled out.  This will be because of the tight barometric pressure gradient developing between high and low pressure.

Highest gradient winds are likely to be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.  Centered on Tuesday afternoon and night.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  NO.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  NO.

6.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  NO.

7.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.  
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines  Freezing fog possible, as well.

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Fire weather risk level.

Monday into Monday night: 5.  Medium risk.
Tuesday: 5.  Medium risk.
Tuesday night: 5. Medium risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Low-level moisture is expected to increase from the southwest but a fairly strong gradient of lower afternoon relative humidity values is expected from northwest to southeast. Parts of SEMO and southern Illinois will see min RHs in the 35% range with southwest winds gusting to 20-25 kts in the afternoon. Mixing heights should reach above 3kft across the entire region. Windier conditions are expected Tuesday with a bump in afternoon min RH. Showers and storms are possible overnight Monday night and Tuesday night before a front turns things sharply colder Wednesday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

 

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.  Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.



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Monday Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Quite a bit of sunshine for most of the area. Very warm.  Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°

Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 73° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 15 to 35 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 5:46 PM .
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Monday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Mild.  Windy.  A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.  If storms form, they could produce small hail and lightning.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Rain probabilities in graphic form.

Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly between 3 am and 11 am.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.  Small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:57 PM
Moonset: 7:37 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Gibbous

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Tuesday Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds. Very warm.  Windy. A chance of mainly morning showers and thunderstorms.  There will be a strong CAP/lid on the atmosphere.  This could keep thunderstorms from forming until the cold front moves in Tuesday night.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%

Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation:  Before 12 PM.  Otherwise, very low chances the rest of the day.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°

Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 15 to 35 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.   Monitor the risk of intense thunderstorms late in the day.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 5:47 PM .
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Tuesday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A line of showers and thunderstorms developing late at night.  Moving in from the west northwest. A few intense storms are possible with gusty wind and hail.  Lightning, as well.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%

Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous late at night.  A line of storms.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 45° to 50°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.  Becoming west northwest behind the cold front.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  A few storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 8:54 PM
Moonset: 7:57 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Gibbous

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Wednesday Forecast:   Mostly cloudy. A chance of mainly morning showers and thunderstorms.  Turning colder.  Falling temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~60%

Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the day. Ending west to east.
Timing of the precipitation:  Mostly before noon.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°

Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°

Winds will be from this direction:  Southwest becoming west northwest at 15 to 35 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning. A few of the morning storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the weather radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 5:48 PM .
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Decreasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 26°

Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 9:53 PM
Moonset: 8:19 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Gibbous

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Thursday Forecast:  Mostly sunny early in the day.  Becoming partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°

Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 45° to 50°

Winds will be from this direction:  Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 5:49 PM .
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Thursday Night Forecast:   Thickening clouds.  A chance of late night showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 am
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°

Winds will be from this direction:   South southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:54PM
Moonset: 8:43 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Gibbous

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Friday Forecast:   Low confidence on rain chances.  I will update over the coming days. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%

Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°

Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°

Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:25AM
Sunset: 5:50 PM .
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Friday  Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%

Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°

Winds will be from this direction:   South southeast at 7 to 14 mph.  Becoming W SW.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 11:58PM
Moonset: 9:10 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Gibbous

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Weather Highlights

    1.   Very warm today and tomorrow.  Unusual weather!
    2.   Gusty winds today into Wednesday.  Occasional gusts above 35 mph likely (perhaps even 40 mph Tuesday/Tuesday night).
    3.   A few showers and thunderstorms as early as tonight.  But, more likely late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
    4.   Some of the storms could be intense.  There is a limited threat of severe weather.  Monitor updates.
    5.   Turning colder Wednesday with rapidly falling temperatures on gusty northwest winds.  Rain could end as rain/snow mix with no accumulation.
    6.   Warming trend begins Friday into the weekend.
    7.   Another big storm system next week.  Monitor updates.

 

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

We need more storm spotters!  Consider signing up for an in-person class or a zoom class.

Register at this link CLICK HERE 

 

Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good day, everyone!

A very warm day ahead of us.  Unusual weather, to say the least.

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Some locations could hit 80 degrees tomorrow!  Paducah, Kentucky has never recorded an 80 degree reading in February.  If Paducah hits 80 degrees then it would be a first during recorded history.  Crazy!

Gusty winds will be with us today, tomorrow, tomorrow night, into Wednesday.

Double click this to read it better.

Timing of winds.  Timing of highest rain chances.

We will have periods of clouds and sun today into Wednesday.

A few showers and thunderstorms could form as early as late tonight into Tuesday morning.  A few of those storms, if they form, could produce dime to nickel size hail and brief downpours.

There are questions about whether storms will form tonight.  I capped chances in the 20 to 30% range.

Scattered.

Tuesday will be spring-like, warm, and windy.  Widespread 70s, again.  A few 80s.

We will have to watch cloud thickness Tuesday.  That could shave a couple of degrees off the highs.

Either way, very very warm for February.

Speaking of a warm February.  Many cities and towns will have had the warmest February on record across the central and northern United States.

Check out this temperature anomaly map for the month, thus far.  These numbers are about to grow larger with today and tomorrow’s extreme warmth.  Extreme is the right word for February.

Today’s temperature anomaly map (how many degrees above average)

Wednesday’s temperature anomaly map

Okay, so we know it is going to be warm.  My weather nerdiness is definitely geeking out over these numbers.

Let’s talk about showers and thunderstorms.

We have low end chances tonight and tomorrow morning.

Then, a lull tomorrow late morning into the afternoon hours.

A VERY strong CAP will prevent storms from forming.  An unusually strong CAP.

in order to overcome the CAP you need lift.

A cold front Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will help lift the air and break the CAP.  That may not happen until after midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Once the CAP does break, then storms will form.  Some of those storms could produce 50+ mph wind gusts, nickel size hail, lightning, and downpours.

There will be a tremendous amount of wind shear.  If we had more CAPE (instability) then we would be in trouble and a tornado outbreak would occur.

Thankfully, we do not have much in the way of CAPE (energy to work with).

We will have enough, however, to provide a limited severe weather risk.

Here is what the CAP looks like on a graphic.  All that red is a strong CAP.  Where warm air aloft prevents air parcels from rising.  See video at the top of the page.

See the future-cast radars below.  What radar might look like.

Here is the NAM 3K model.

It forms storms around 9 pm to 12 am Tuesday night.

Here is the 2 AM NAM model depiction of what radar might look like.

Let’s keep an eye on it.

Colder air arrives behind the cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night.  There is a small chance the rain ends as rain snow mix.  No accumulation.

Here is what the cold air looks like.

Expect falling temperatures Wednesday behind that front.

Time is Zulu.  12z = 6 am.  00z=6 pm.

Double click to enlarge the animation.  You can see the cold air sweep in from the northwest and north.  Moving south southeast.

Did you see the bolide?  A bolide is a meteor.  It passed into the region Sunday morning.  That is what the blue light was.  Google Bolide to learn more.


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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

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Tornado Probability Outlook

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Large Hail Probability Outlook

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High wind Probability Outlook

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

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This  animation is the HRRR Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.   Blue is snow.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Green is rain.

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This  animation is the NAM 3Z Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the GFS Model.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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This  animation is the EC Model.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=6 AM.  18z=12 PM.  00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

 

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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