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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Sunday Night – On and off clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Partly cloudy. Periods of mostly cloudy during the morning. Not as mild.
Temperatures: Highs in the 46 to 52 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday Night – Some increase in clouds.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 30s
Winds: Northeast winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Increasing clouds. Showers increasing during the afternoon from north to south. Best chances late in the day would be over the Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee. And, possibly into western Kentucky. The bulk of the precipitation will arrive on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Temperatures: Highs in the 50-55 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 5-10 mph. Perhaps gusts to 15 mph during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before 2 pm. 60% after 2 pm.
Coverage of precipitation? Increasing coverage through the day
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways.
Wide range of weather possible over our region on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Snow is more likely over our far western and northwest counties of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. See full discussion further down in this forecast update.
Tuesday Night – Cloudy. Rain likely. Thunderstorms possible late. Windy. Locally heavy rain possible. We will have to monitor the potential for frozen precipitation over parts of Missouri and Illinois.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Rising temperatures possible late at night over Kentucky and Tennessee. Turning colder over our northwest counties.
Winds: North winds at 10-30 mph. Gusts above 40 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely for most of us. Will be watching far far western and northwestern counties in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would consider a backup plan
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. High winds. Perhaps some accumulating wet snow over parts of Missouri and Illinois. See full discussion further down in this forecast update.
Wednesday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Strong winds likely. Turning colder over our western counties of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Wet snow possible over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Rain may mix with or change to snow area-wide as the system pulls away on Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening. Marginal temperatures for snow. But, monitor updates for adjustments in the forecast.
Temperatures: Highs temperatures will vary greatly. Possibly into the 60s over our southern and southeastern counties and in the middle 30s over parts of southeast Missouri and northwest parts of southern Illinois.
Winds: North and northwest at 15-40 mph. Higher gusts possible. Winds may turn out of the south over parts of western Kentucky and Tennessee on Wednesday morning.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Parts of the area could experience wet snow.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? At this time, rain appears likely
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
What impact is expected? Windy. Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Will need to monitor for wintry precipitation at least over our western and northwestern counties of southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois. And, this could spread eastward during the day. Temperatures will be marginal for this snow event.
Wednesday Night – Cloudy. Turning colder. Any rain showers or snow showers will be coming to an end.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32 to 38 degree range.
Winds: West/northwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% early.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would consider a backup plan
Is severe weather expected? No.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe some wet snow.
Thursday – A mix of sun and clouds. Cooler.
Temperatures: Highs temperatures will mostly be in the 40s.
Winds: North and northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None expected. If wet snow fell on Wednesday then parts of the area may still be dealing with that.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Calm weather Sunday night into Tuesday morning
2. Large storm system forecast to impact the region Tuesday into Wednesday night/Thursday.
3. Rain and storms possible this week. Some heavy.
4. What about snow or wintry precipitation?
Another element of this event could be gusty winds on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
If the area of low pressure is as tight as the models are showing then 30-40 mph winds would occur. Some questions on that. But, all the models are painting a deep area of low pressure. And, that normally does mean a period of strong winds.
Here is the wind gust forecast from the GFS guidance. This is for Wednesday morning at 6 am. Green colors would be 35+ mph winds.
Bottom line:
Let’s pay attention to forecast updates for Tuesday into Wednesday night/Thursday morning. A significant storm system is forecast to push into our region from the southwest.
No snow or ice expected through Tuesday afternoon.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – Currently no snow or ice anticipated. But, monitor updates.
Tuesday night – monitor updates
Wednesday – Wintry precipitation can’t be ruled out.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated. Maybe a flurry.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
I continue to update the forecast concerning the Tuesday/Wednesday storm system.
No major concerns for Sunday night or Monday.
The wild card will be the track of a system on Tuesday-Thursday of this coming week. Let’s keep an eye on this one.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A more significant rain event is possible Tuesday into Thursday. Perhaps centered on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. A large storm system will approach our region from the south and west. Rain will spread into the region. Thunderstorms possible.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Monday
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ONE on Tuesday. Monitor updates.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ONE on Wednesday. Monitor updates.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
