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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Saturday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Lightning possible. Turning colder over our northern counties.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s. Temperatures over over the northern half of the region could dip into the 40s. That would probably be north of Cape Girardeau, north of Carbondale/Marion.
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. Maybe some lightning.
Sunday – Cloudy. Some showers possible. Maybe a rumble of thunder. Mainly before 10 am. Temperatures may vary considerably across the region. This will depend on how far south the cold front pushes. It will be coming in from the north. Keep that in mind.
Temperatures: Highs in the 55 to 60 degree range. Temperatures over the northern half of the region could remain mostly in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Most likely along a line from Cape Girardeau to Vienna to Evansville. Temperatures elsewhere may fall during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will depend on just how far south the cold front pushes. Temp forecast may need to be adjusted.
Winds: Winds becoming northwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Lightning possible. Wet roadways likely.
Sunday Night – Cloudy. Cooler Maybe a remaining evening shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: North winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%- 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Maybe an evening shower.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Monday – Partly cloudy. Not as mild.
Temperatures: Highs in the 46 to 52 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday Night – Cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 30s
Winds: Northeast winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Increasing clouds.
Temperatures: Highs in the 46 to 52 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FORECAST
Tuesday Night – Cloudy. A chance for precipitation late.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s
Winds: North winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% (but this number could change)
Coverage of precipitation? Unknown.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitor updates
Wednesday – Cloudy and colder. Precipitation possible. Low confidence
Temperatures: Highs in the 35-40 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Unknown
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitor updates
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A chance for some showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday
2. Cooler on Monday
3. Watching a system for Tuesday-Thursday. Let’s keep an eye on it. Timing will need to be adjusted.
What an amazing Saturday it has been. I love these temperatures in February. Unusual? Not unheard of. But, definitely well above normal.
Let’s take a look at the temperature anomalies for Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. How many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be.
Here is the Saturday afternoon anomaly map. We knew it was warm, but how much above normal has it been? WELL above normal! Normal highs for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday (notice a cool down).
We have a cold front approaching the area. And, with the warm temperatures we have to think about thunderstorms. The good news is that I do not believe severe weather will be a concern.
Lightning will be the main impact of the thunderstorms. A few reports of hail can’t be ruled out.
This should not be a heavy rain event. Rainfall totals of 0.10″-0.30″ appear possible. Locally heavier amounts where storms train over the same area. Mainly northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern half of southern Illinois.
Some areas may miss out on the rainfall.
Notice how much rain the NAM guidance drops over our northern counties. Again, locally heavy rain possible in some areas.
Here is the HRRR model guidance. Notice where it develops storms? The northern half of the region may have the best chance for some heavier storms.
This is the 8 PM Future-cast radar image from the HRRR model from weatherbell.com
Temperatures on Sunday should be cooler over the northern half of the region. This will partly depend on how far south the cold front shifts. Keep that in mind.
We will cool down a bit by Monday and Tuesday.
I continue to monitor a storm system that could approach our region on Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Lot of questions remain about the eventual track of this system. I would encourage you to monitor updates.
Severe weather will be possible with this system. Most likely to our south. But, we will need to monitor the track of the area of low pressure.
Snow and/or wintry mix will be possible on the north and west side of the track. Again, most likely centered on Tuesday night into Wednesday night.
Low confidence on the forecast for early next week.
No snow or ice expected through Monday
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – Currently no snow or ice anticipated. But, monitor updates.
Wednesday – Currently no snow or ice anticipated. But, monitor updates.
No major changes in this forecast update.
No major concerns. Lightning will be possible on Saturday night and Sunday morning.
The wild card will be the track of a system on Tuesday-Thursday of this coming week. Let’s keep an eye on this one.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
This is the precipitation for Saturday night into Sunday night. Northern counties could experience locally heavy rain.
Here is what the WRF model shows. Notice the heavy totals over our northern counties.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ONE on Saturday night. Lightning is possible. A few reports of hail can’t be ruled out.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ONE on Sunday
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Monday
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
