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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Here are some graphics from the Paducah, Kentucky NWS. Double click images to enlarge them.
Impacts would be more likely tonight as temperatures fall into the 20s. Temperatures may remain above freezing most of today across the area.
Here are some St Louis, MO NWS Graphics
A video from the St Louis, MO NWS
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today over our southern counties. I will monitor next Wednesday/Thursday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? POSSIBLE. Friday night/Saturday morning wind chill values of 8 to 18 degrees are likely.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? YES. I am watching today and tonight. Mainly the northern half of the region. Light snow accumulation is possible. Mixed with sleet. Mainly north, but other areas should monitor, as well.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? LOW RISK. I will keep an eye on a cold front Friday night for rain ending as a wintry mix.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Friday: 3. Very low risk.
Friday night. 2. Very low risk.
Saturday through Saturday night: 4. Moderate risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
A wintry mix will spread across the region on today with rain transitioning to sleet and snow during the afternoon before ending by early evening. Some light accumulations are possible, especially across portions of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. A brief blast of arctic air moves in tonight through Saturday night with lows in the 20s each night. Wind chill readings will be quite cold as well with some single digits and low teens above zero possible Saturday morning and again Sunday morning. Southwest winds return on Sunday leading to temperatures moderating back to above normal through much of next week.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Friday Forecast: Thickening clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain could change to snow and sleet over the northern half of the region as temperatures fall. We will need to monitor the rain snow line.
A bit of a spread on temperatures Friday. Colder north of the front.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 35° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 35° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the weather radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 5:36 PM .
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Friday Night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of snow and sleet showers. Turning sharply colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Ending.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Watch for icy roadways. Roads may be too warm for ice. I will monitor it.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates on road conditions. Falling temperatures could lead to icy roads.
Moonrise: 10:36 AM
Moonset: 12:39 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 35° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 36° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: northwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 5:37 PM .
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 20° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:17 AM
Moonset: 1:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 5:38 PM .
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 20° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:05 PM
Moonset: 2:53 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny early. Some afternoon clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 53° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 53° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 5:39 PM .
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Monday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 33° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:59 PM
Moonset: 3:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- Wide range of temperatures today.
- Showers and thunderstorms.
- Rain changing to snow and sleet (northern half of the region).
- Sharply colder tonight into tomorrow night. Warming trend begins Sunday. Mild next week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Monitor temperatures today. Some snow and sleet will develop from northwest to southeast. Temperatures should remain above freezing for most of the area, but as we move into the evening and overnight hours, temperatures will fall into the 20s. That could be an issue.
Monitor road conditions. Watch for black ice tonight.
Forecast Discussion
A strong cold front is going to push across the region today.
The front will be accompanied by showers, thunderstorms, snow, and sleet.
There will be a wide range of temperatures today from north to south.
As the front moves southward, temperatures will fall. Here is the Hrrr model temperature forecast for today. Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Highs will occur this morning over our central and northern counties.
Radar at 6 am showed rain and snow to our north. It is moving southeast.
Here are the 6:30 AM temperatures. What temps were at 6:30 am. You can see the cold air to the north.
See the graphics at the top of the page.
As we move into the lunch hour widespread showers, thunderstorms, snow, and sleet will move into the region.
It will transition to snow and sleet from north to south.
Keep in mind, road temperatures are warm. Surfaces are warm. It will take a bit of time for there to be any travel issues.
Sleet would speed those issues up, a bit. Sleet takes a little longer to melt vs snowflakes.
Watch for falling temperatures and black ice as we move into this evening and tonight. Lows tonight will drop into the upper teens far north and middle 20s far south. That would be plenty cold enough to cause icy roads. Those icy roads will be more likely if temperatures fall into the 20s WITH precipitation still falling.
Gusty winds will help dry roads after the precip ends.
All in all, this is a borderline travel event. There are questions about road temperatures offsetting issues, esp early on. With that said, bridges and overpasses freeze first. Elevated surfaces freeze first.
The risk of travel impacts will be higher from Bollinger County, Missouri northeast towards Evansville. Along that line and north.
There are currently not any winter weather advisories for my local counties, but that could change if the NWS believes travel impacts will be higher. They can always add counties to an advisory.
Here is the current advisory map
Here is where the WPC believes there could be some travel impacts.
A few thunderstorms will be possible today, as well. No severe weather.
Rainfall totals today (and melted precipitation)
Saturday and Sunday will be cold. It will feel like winter.
A strong warming trend early next week will continue through the week. The sixties will return!
I am watching Wednesday night and Thursday for additional shower chances. Perhaps some thunderstorms.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them. Blue is snow. Pink is a wintry mix. Green is rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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