6 PM Update
No major changes at this time.
I may update forecast totals between 9 and 10 pm tonight.
The system is rapidly developing to our west. Precipitation will blossom on radar over the coming hours. By 10 pm to 1 am you will see widespread snow approaching far southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Roads will quickly become slick.
Temperatures overnight will fall into the teens and 20’s.
Snowfall total forecast remains the same. Some data shows a lot more snow – some data shows less. There will always be some who receive more than expected. There are also always those who do not receive what is forecast.
I have widespread 4-8 inches of the area with near 100% probabilities for 4″ of snow across all my forecast counties. I have high probabilities for 6-8 inches. Lesser chances for 10″ and above.
With that said, some of the data shows widespread 10-12″ of snow.
Whether this ends up being an 8 inch snowstorm or 12 inch snowstorm the impact remains the same. Big mess.
VERY cold air by Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will fall well below zero by Thursday morning. That is the current forecast.
Radars are up and running
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Previous updates…
12 PM updated numbers – increasing probabilities for higher totals. Potential for this to be a category 3 snowstorm in some counties.
9 AM Update
All data showing heavy snow developing tonight into Monday. Widespread accumulations of snow will cause travel headaches across our region.
Sleet may mix in near the KY/TN border. If so, that will cut down snow totals there. More sleet equals less snow. If the precipitation stays all snow then some very big totals near the KY/TN border – likely over 6 inches of snow.
It appears widespread 3-6 inches of snow for our region with this event with some areas picking up MORE than 6 inches of snow.
Bitterly cold air for the middle of the week with temperatures approaching zero or below for morning lows. Brrr!
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
I will update the blog from time to time today (top of the page)
I WILL UPDATE AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE – I WILL ALSO KEEP THE FACEBOOK PAGE UPDATED FREQUENTLY
Sunday – Mostly cloudy. A chance for flurries – perhaps some light snow over northern counties later this afternoon. Highs in the 20’s. Northeast winds at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Sunday night – Snow developing. Some snow accumulation likely. Cold. Lows in the teens. Northeast winds at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Monday – Snow. High temperatures in the lower 20’s. Northeast winds at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium.
Monday night – Snow ending. Cold. Lows in the 12-16 degree range. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Tuesday – Cloudy and cold. Highs in the 20’s. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
CLICK YOUR COUNTY FOR WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights…
1. Snow develops tonight into Monday (could last into Monday evening)
2. Several inches of snow likely to fall
3. VERY cold temperatures possible middle of the week if we have snow cover (perhaps below zero in some areas)
4. Slick road conditions later tonight and those slick roads could last into the middle of the week (for secondary roads and less traveled roadways it could last all week)
Keep in mind that this forecast will evolve through today. New data will become available. I will tweak the forecast numbers. Monitor updates. If you only read one forecast then you won’t have the full forecast information. Check this blog for updates and check the Beau Dodson Facebook page. I will keep both updated.
A winter storm is forecast to move into the area tonight and last into Monday. All data has slowed the storm down…quite a bit.
Very tricky forecast when it comes to how much snow will fall. We have two systems to deal with. One coming in from the north and one from the south. They are merging.
Right now it appears snow will break out tonight over southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois. Perhaps a band across northern southeast Missouri into northern southern Illinois. This band may produce several inches of snow. See the future-cast radar images below.
Snow may be slower to develop further south of a line from Farmington, Missouri to Shawneetown, Illinois. There southward snow will develop late tonight into Monday morning. Some question on the exact timing. Again, northern counties may see snow first.
Mixed ideas on how much snow will fall overnight across far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. A few inches are possible. Some of the new data shows the bulk of the snow falling on Monday. Again, there is uncertainty on this topic (at least as I write this). Hopefully I will have a better handle on all of this later today. Check back for updated information.
This is a difficult forecast, at best.
Models are trending further north with the main area of low pressure on Monday and Monday night. This low will track through the Tennessee Valley – perhaps a bit south of there. The track of the low is key to how much snow falls – especially true for areas along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
If the low does fully develop and does track north a bit then significant accumulations of snow and some sleet will fall near the KY/TN line.
Elsewhere across the area it appears that significant snow is also possible. See my numbers in the charts below.
Just not sure what to do with the KY/TN border area or for that matters areas a bit further north if this low does continue to trend northward. I have a feeling there will be a few updates today here on the blog and on the Facebook page.
Normally I don’t have a handle on where to place snow banding until 12 hours before an event. I can do general snow totals 24 hours in advance.
This is a tough system to forecast and all forecasters are having a hard time pinning down the numbers.
If you have travel plans on Sunday night into Wednesday then monitor road conditions and weather forecast updates.
BITTERLY cold air is likely Wednesday and Thursday in the area behind yet another cold front. If we have a deep snow pack then single digit to below zero readings will almost certainly occur. The deeper the snow the colder the temperatures.
There may be some light snow and high winds on Wednesday. Monitor updates. I am watching another system next weekend.
I told you this week would be interesting and winter was about to return. I wasn’t kidding.
My snowfall forecast numbers…
These are JUST the counties I forecast for – just because your county is not on here does NOT mean it won’t snow in your county. I can’t cover every county. I try to answer questions on the Facebook page for other areas.
Here are some future-cast radars from the WRF model
Keep in mind that some of the new data slows precipitation down a bit more.
Notice that one band that forms over eastern MO into northern parts of southern IL into southwest IN. That will need to be monitored. Most of the models show this. So, seems like there may be something to this.
The second area of snow then develops further south over southern Missouri and spreads eastward overnight.
Again, the exact timing of some of this may need to be adjusted.
Time frame for this image is around 3 pm Sunday evening. The blue is snow – the green over our region is also snow. This particular model is just having a difficult time showing all of that blue. But, trust me – that is all snow. Some of that may not be hitting the ground. VIRGA could be an issue. Virga is caused by very dry air aloft and at the surface. This can cause radar to show snow for awhile. It can take awhile for the atmosphere to moisten up a bit. Images are from weatherbell.com
Click images for a larger view
Time frame for this image is around 6 pm Sunday evening. The blue is snow – the green over our region is also snow. This particular model is just having a difficult time showing all of that blue. But, trust me – that is all snow. Some of that may not be hitting the ground. VIRGA could be an issue. Virga is caused by very dry air aloft and at the surface. This can cause radar to show snow for awhile. It can take awhile for the atmosphere to moisten up a bit.
This image is around 9 pm on Sunday night. You can still see that band to our north. That is forecast by most of the models. We will see how that goes.
More snow is starting to develop over southern Missouri.
This image is for the 12 am to 2 am time frame tonight. You can see widespread snow developing. Some heavy snow.
This image is for the 5 am to 7 am time frame on Monday morning. Heavy snow over parts of our area. Snow may continue for awhile on Monday morning.
This image is 12 pm on Monday. Will snow be moving out at this point? Maybe. Some data shows snow continuing into Monday afternoon. This is part of the forecast that will need to be monitored. Low confidence on the timing of the snow coming to an end.
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The uncertainties part of the e-journal spells out where I am not confident in the forecast. I always tell people to pay attention to the whole forecast and not just the part they want to hear.
It goes without saying that there are some big uncertainties around tonight’s forecast.
There are questions on where to place banding. Banding is where heavy snow trains over the same area over and over again. This can throw snowfall forecasts off by quite a bit. I tried to account for this in the snow probability charts. See them above.
The other uncertainty is when to bring snow to an end on Monday. Monitor updates. Right now it seems that Monday morning will be the end time over the counties I forecast for. But, some data shows snow continuing into Monday afternoon. Again, monitor updates.
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Adjusted snowfall totals and temperatures.
Snow tonight into Monday. Slick roadways will be possible on Sunday night into the middle of the week. Secondary roads and less traveled roadways will be slick for awhile if we do end up with the amount of snow being forecast. Cold temperatures will keep the snow around awhile.
Concerned about very cold temperatures for Wednesday into Thursday. If we have a deep snow pack then temperatures will be in the single digits and perhaps below zero.
Monitor updates on temperature forecasts. This could be a concern if we have deep snow pack.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Will I need to take action?
Yes. Slick roads could cause problems for the beginning of the work week. If we do end up with a lot of snow then schools could be closed for several days. Especially in areas that have hills and tricky roadways. Back roads will be slick for several days. Cold temperatures will last into the weekend.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
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Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
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Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
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Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
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