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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Friday – Some clouds with a small chance for a flurry or snow shower. Cold with highs only in the upper 20’s and lower 30’s. Southerly winds at 5-10 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is moderate
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Cloudy with a chance for flurries. Cold. Temperatures around 20-22 degrees at 7 am. Chances of schools being delayed because of the weather 0%
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly cloudy. Cold. Temperatures in the 30’s with light winds.
Friday night Partly cloudy and cold. Lows in the 20’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Saturday Quite a few clouds. Snow showers possible. Cold. Highs early in the day in the 30’s to around 40 with temperatures falling during the afternoon. Winds becoming strong and gusty from the northwest at 10-30 mph. Gusts above 30 mph likely. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Saturday night – Partly cloudy and bitterly cold. Gusty northwest winds. Low wind chills. Lows in the single digits to lower teens. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Sunday – Becoming cloudy. A chance for light snow late in the day – towards evening. Cold. Morning lows in the 8 to 14 degree range. Afternoon highs in the 20’s. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Sunday Night – Snow likely. Some accumulation possible. Lows in the teens.
Monday into Tuesday – The second system that I have been tracking since last Friday is still on the table for Monday into Tuesday. Big questions remain on storm track and intensity. Will it go too far south? Some data shows it going way south. Other data keeps it over our area. Still a lot of questions remain.
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Woosh – there went our nice weather. Thursday brought strong winds that gusted over 40 mph at a few stations. Cold wind chills. Not very nice. Snow showers were common-place over the region, as well.
Today will bring more clouds and maybe a flurry or snow shower…mostly over eastern Missouri. Winds won’t be as bad today, thankfully.
A strong cold front arrives on Saturday. This front will be accompanied by strong and gusty winds, snow showers, and falling temperatures.
The front is forecast to arrive during the morning and early afternoon hours. It will sweep southward through the whole region by evening.
Snow showers could produce a quick dusting in some counties. Iffy on that happening, moisture is limited. Better chances further east for accumulating snow on Saturday.
Sunday morning will bring some of the coldest air we have experienced in awhile. Single digits are possible over southern Illinois and single digits to lower teens elsewhere. Winds chills will be below zero, as well.
A storm system takes shape on Sunday to our northwest. This will spread a chance for snow into the region by Sunday night. There could be a few inches of snow from this system. Monitor updates.
Another system arrives on Monday and Tuesday. Sketchy details on that one. Still not sure on the track of the area of low pressure. If it moves too far south then we won’t pick up much precipitation. If it moves further north then we could have a lot of wintry precipitation.
The drought continues to worsen over our region. Here are the latest numbers – west Tennessee has now seen its drought numbers increase. We need rain.
Let’s zoom in on Kentucky and Tennessee. Those are the states with the most problems. Click image for a larger view. You can see more counties have been added to the moderate drought.
Tennessee has seen an increase from moderate drought to severe drought.
Here is the Friday morning weather map and Friday evening weather map
On the Friday evening map – second map – you can see the strong cold front advancing towards our region. It arrives on Saturday.
Here is the Saturday morning weather map. There comes the strong cold front with snow showers and gusty winds. Maybe a dusting in spots with the snow showers.
The uncertainties part of the e-journal spells out where I am not confident in the forecast. I always tell people to pay attention to the whole forecast and not just the part they want to hear.
Uncertainties surround snow chances for late on Sunday into Sunday night. Then again on the Monday and Tuesday storm.
The first round of snow may develop late on Sunday afternoon or evening. Some accumulation of snow will be possible on Sunday night.
Second chances for precipitation could arrive on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the new data keeps the precipitation shunted off well to our south. If this is the case then we don’t have much to worry about. This becomes a southern snowstorm. But, this is far for certain.
The storm in question has yet to be sampled by the upper air data fields. Until that happens the models will wobble back and forth with the track of the area of low pressure.
LOT of uncertainty remains as to how the weekend system and the system early next week unfolds. Check back for updates.
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Most of the forecast changes center around Sunday. A system moving out of the Northern Plains could bring precipitation chances into the forecast by Sunday evening or night. Accumulating snow appears likely on Sunday night.
Very cold temperatures and wind chills on Saturday night and Sunday. Well below zero on the wind chills.
Other concerns will be on the potential for some snow later on Sunday afternoon or more likely on Sunday night.
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The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – today’s wild card centers around snow flurries or snow showers this morning (Friday morning). We may see a few around the area.
Otherwise, how cold will it be on Sunday morning? Some places will dip into the single digits. Believe the best chances for single digits will be over southern Illinois. Lower teens for western Kentucky. Some of you in west Kentucky could also experience single digits for a few hours. That is the wild card.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO.
Will I need to take action?
No major concerns today. There could be some snow showers. These occasionally can produce a brief dusting of snow here and there. Otherwise, just cold temperatures.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Light snow showers possible on and off into Saturday. Another chance of snow Sunday evening or night. Then next weeks system is up for grabs. Lot of questions remain on how the weekend and next week unfolds.
Storm track is going to be key to what happens locally. There will be a larger storm system in or near the region.
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Snow showers are possible over the coming days.
MUCH colder air arrives Saturday night into Sunday. Sunday morning will bring single digits to many of the counties I forecast for. Wind chills will be below zero late on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Bundle up kind of weather!
Snow showers are possible on Saturday. A more active pattern is developing this weekend into the next few weeks.
Accumulating snow will develop on Sunday afternoon and more likely on Sunday night. Monitor updates as we move forward if you have travel plans Sunday night into Monday.
Bitterly cold air for Sunday night and Monday…especially if snow covers the ground.
Obviously everyone is watching the Monday and Tuesday system. Lot of questions remain as to whether or not this will impact our local counties. Keep checking back for updates as we move forward.
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This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
The main change to the forecast has been for Sunday evening and night. A stronger system will dive out of the Northern Plains on Sunday and Sunday afternoon.
Snow will develop over Iowa and Missouri on Sunday morning and afternoon. The snow will then move east/southeast into our area.
Snow will likely move into parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri late Sunday afternoon and evening.
At this time it appears some accumulating snow will occur on Sunday night. Where the heaviest snow band occurs will need to be monitored. A winter weather advisory or winter storm warning may have to be issued for Sunday evening and Sunday night for portions of the area for hazardous driving conditions.
Snow will likely fall over all of my forecast counties Sunday night.
Bitterly cold air for Monday morning is likely…especially if snow does cover the ground.
Here is the future-cast radar for Sunday morning through evening. You can see the snow moving into our area
First image is for 6-7 am
Second image is for 12 pm
Third image is for 6-7 am
Fourth image is around 9 pm
Images are from www.weatherbell.com
A second storm – the much advertised storm system – arrives on Monday and Tuesday. The track of this second storm continues to be uncertain. The model data on Thursday pushed the system so far south that most of our area would miss out on significant precipitation.
It might end up that system 1 produces the most snow. We shall see.
Models have a poor skill level 4-5 days out. This is why I have been telling you to ignore the weather app’s and snowfall forecasts you have been reading on some websites.
Continue to monitor updates if you have travel plans Monday through Thursday of next week. A significant winter storm is going to impact a portion of the Ohio or Tennessee Valley on Monday and Tuesday. The question is where.
Much colder air will arrive on Wednesday – especially if we have snow on the ground.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
