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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Winter Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Wednesday Night – Cloudy. Light snow possible. A band from northwest to southeast.
Temperatures: Lows from 16-22 degrees
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? A narrow band of light snow from northwest to southeast over the area.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Yes, some snow possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Could be some slick spots because of light snow.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Bitterly cold air. Snow possible. Slick roads possible. Light accumulation possible.
Thursday – Some clouds. Then, becoming partly cloudy. Cold.
Temperatures: Highs will range 26-34 degrees. Warmest temperatures over western parts of southeast Missouri. Poplar Bluff might reach 36-38 degrees.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Some morning light snow possible. Narrow band over the area.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but you may have to deal with some light snow in the morning. Cold temperatures
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Some slick spots possible on roadways.
Thursday Night – Light snow developing late. Especially over southern Illinois and then spreading southeast into western Kentucky. A dusting to an inch or so possible.
Temperatures: Lows from 18-24 degrees
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Yes, some light snow possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but there could be slick spots develop late tonight.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold. Could still be some slick spots.
Friday – Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance for a few snow showers before 9 am.
Temperatures: Highs will range from 36 to 42 degrees.
Winds: Variable winds becoming west/southwest winds 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before 9 am.
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps spotty
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Some snow showers early in the day will be possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some flurries or snow showers. Slick roads in the morning will be possible where snow falls overnight.
Friday Night – Clearing. Cold.
Temperatures: Lows from 15-20 degrees
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold. Could still be some slick spots.
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Perhaps some high clouds late in the day.
Temperatures: Highs will range from 26 to 34 degrees.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None anticipated.
Saturday Night – Becoming cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows from 14 to 18 degrees
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures. Wind chills from 8-14 degrees.
Sunday – Cloudy. A wintry mix possible. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: Highs will range from 28-34 degrees.
Winds: Northeast winds 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low to medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? We may have a wintry mix in the region
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? If a wintry mix develops then slick roads will be an issue. Monitor updates.
Winter storm possible Sunday into Monday. Monitor updates.
We still have the school bus stop forecast AD spot available 🙂
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Snow showers/light snow likely into Wednesday night
2. Cold weather into the weekend
3. Flurries or light snow showers Friday?
4. Larger storm system on Sunday and Monday.
Winter Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here –
The main weather story will be light snow over the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. This event is light. The system in question will be weakening as it moves northwest to southeast through our region.
There should be enough moisture for some areas to pick up a dusting of snow. And, one to two inches is not completely out of the question where the core of the system passes.
This is a narrow band of precipitation and it will be weakening as it moves into and through the area.
Thursday and Friday will be cold. Another weak system moves through late Thursday night and Friday. Clouds and perhaps snow flurries or light snow showers can’t be ruled out. But, once again, this is a weak system, as well. Low confidence that it will produce snow flurries or light snow showers.
A larger winter storm is possible on Sunday and Sunday night. I would advise everyone to monitor updates as we move forward. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain may develop on Sunday morning over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. The precipitation would then spread east.
Guidance is not in agreement as to how the Sunday system evolves. Some of the better models take the heavier precipitation into northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and western Tennessee. Meanwhile, other data moves the system right over our entire area.
Confidence is medium that there will be a precipitation event on Sunday and Monday. Confidence is lower as to totals and exact track of the system.
This afternoons data indicated snow, sleet, and freezing rain will be possible on Sunday into Monday. And, we may warm up a bit on Monday morning to change some of it to light rain. Lot of details still to be worked out.
Monitor updates if you have travel plans late Sunday into Monday.
Light snow possible Wednesday night. Light accumulation can’t be ruled out. Light event.
Wednesday night – Light snow likely.
Thursday – Any morning light snow will come to an end.
Friday – Light snow possible. Low confidence on light snow or flurries late Thursday night and Friday.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – Snow, sleet, and freezing rain are possible. Medium confidence.
No major changes in this forecast.
Main concern will be light snow over the next 12-18 hours. Mainly Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
Yes, you will want to monitor road conditions on Wednesday night. Some light snow could cause slick spots. And, if that occurs there might be school closings.
The wild card for this update will be the snow chances later this afternoon into tonight (Wednesday afternoon and night). A quick moving system should spread some snow into our area. And, some accumulation can’t be ruled out. Perhaps a dusting to an inch or two. The wild card will be snowfall amounts. This is a fast moving system, a weak system, and it will actually be weakening as it moves through our area.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A weak system on Wednesday night and Thursday morning could produce a band of light snow over the region. This will be a weakening system. But, can’t rule out light accumulations. The clipper will be weakening as it moves over our region.
A larger system is still forecast for Sunday and Monday. This one could produce quite a bit of precipitation for the region. Mostly snow, it would appear. Monitor updates. We have been talking about the SUN/MON system for over 10 days!
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO through Thursday.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
