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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Wednesday – Mostly sunny sky conditions – just a few clouds in the morning. Increasing clouds during the afternoon. Milder with highs in the upper 40’s and lower 50’s. Southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Winds may shift late in the day to the northwest. Temperatures may fall over our northwest counties during the afternoon as a cold front approaches. There will also be an increase of clouds with the cold front. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Just a few clouds. Chilly with temperatures in the upper 20’s. Light winds. Chances of schools being delayed because of the weather 0%
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly cloudy. Temperatures will be in the upper 40’s and lower 50’s with northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
Wednesday night – A period of clouds. A flurry possible. Turning colder and breezy. Gusty northwest winds at 10-20 mph with temperatures falling into the 20’s by Thursday morning. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Thursday – Windy. Much colder. A few clouds. Small chance for flurries. Temperatures won’t get out of the upper 20’s and lower 30’s. Northwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 30 mph. Winds chills in the single digits. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Thursday night – Mostly clear and cold. Lows in the teens. Northerly winds at 10 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Friday – Partly cloudy – small chance for a flurry. Cold. Highs only in the 30’s. Northerly winds at 10 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Saturday and Sunday – Turning colder – maybe some snow showers on Saturday and Sunday as a weak disturbance moves through the area – cold. Bitterly cold by Sunday morning with temperatures falling into the single digits and lower teens. Highs on Saturday and Sunday only in the 20’s. Gusty winds at times will cause wind chills to fall well below freezing.
Chance of precipitation arrives Monday afternoon and Tuesday – see the extended forecast part of the blog for details.
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
It is going to be a great day across our region. High today (Wednesday) will reach into the 50’s. Now, who is going to complain about 50’s in the middle of February? Well, yes – snow lovers will complain. But, other than than team snow…
I hope you don’t break out the spring-wear. These temperatures are about to go bye bye. A cold front will usher in colder air by tonight. This colder air is going to last into next week. Several rounds of bitterly cold air over the next 15 days.
Gusty winds will accompany the front tonight into Thursday afternoon. Gusts above 30 mph will be possible. Those winds combined with cold temperatures will make it feel even colder.
Dry conditions will prevail as high pressure dominates our regions weather Thursday into Sunday. Changes arrive after Sunday (see the extended part of the blog for details).
Let’s check out today’s weather maps (this mornings and this evenings)
You can track the cold front. This first image is for 7 am – second image is for 12 pm and the last image is for this evening.
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Updated both temperatures and increased winds speeds for tonight into Thursday afternoon
No concerns today. Concerned about bitterly cold air for the weekend. Single digits? Possibly.
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The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – No wild card today – I am sure there will be plenty next week.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO (we have had a long streak without thunderstorms or severe weather)
Will I need to take action?
No action will be required. A calm day. Cold front arrives later tonight. Gusty winds with the front.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain or snow today or tomorrow. More dry weather. Par for the course.
Maybe some snow showers on Saturday and Sunday as a weak disturbance moves through the area. Turning much colder at that time.
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Bitterly cold air this weekend with lows in the single digits or low teens by Sunday morning. Possibly some snow showers on Saturday and Sunday.
Check out these 5 day temperature anomalies. WELL below normal numbers.
Snow, ice, or rain by Monday night/Tuesday? Possibly. Watching a developing winter storm. Stay tuned.
Since we don’t have snow locally – how about we pull up some more Twitter photos from New England? This is Portsmouth, New Hampshire. If only they would share
Meteorologist Jim Rasor has a new blog. Check it out when you have time http://mylocalweather.net/forum/home
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights…
1. Cold and dry Thursday through Saturday.
2. BITTER cold for the weekend with single digits and teens by Sunday morning
3. Rain or snow/ice possible with a precipitation maker coming out of the southwest U.S. and northern U.S. on Monday night into Tuesday
4. Colder behind the storm system as it pulls away (MUCH colder is snow is on the ground)
5. A more active southern jet might mean several precipitation makers to track between the 16th and the end of the month (and into March)
Well, here we go. I promised you a more active pattern as we push into next week. All of the data now shows some sort of system passing near our region on Monday and Tuesday (more after that, as well).
Big questions remain on the table. The track of the low, the strength of the low, temperatures in our region, will it rain or snow, will there be ice, and will the system be too far south to impact our region.
I am confident there is going to be a system in or near our region. I am not confident on the details. Since this is the long range part of the forecast there is rarely confidence. As you should know from following me over the years…once you get past day 4 or 5 the skill level of forecasting drops off significantly.
So, I continue to track the potential system.
Here is one run of the GFS from Tuesday (remember there are four runs of the model per day). You can see the blue represents snow and green rain. Storm track on Tuesday’s model runs indicated snow for our northern counties and rain for our southern counties. But, again – that is just one days worth of models. The models will keep swinging back and forth over the coming days.
One thing that has not changed – the system is showing up in all of the data. There will be a system. The question is strength and track.
Of note – on Tuesday a lot more of the data showed snow than rain. For what that is worth. (the overnight run of the GFS was a very large winter storm in our region – so, again – the models are going back and forth on what will happen). Long way to go to watch this event. Too soon to make a forecast. We watch and monitor, for now.
Let’s take a quick look at the latest low temperature forecasts for Sunday and Monday (and then Wednesday of next week). If we have snow on the ground then temperatures next Tuesday night into Thursday will be bitterly cold.
Sunday morning – single digits and lower teens (today’s data was not quite as cold as yesterday’s).
Monday morning (below)
Next Wednesday morning – temperatures the middle of next week will be dependent on snow cover. If we have a snowstorm then it will obviously be very cold behind that system. If not then temperatures will probably be in the teens (maybe single digits northern counties)
I can see the change of seasons starting to show up in the models. A bit more of the UP and DOWN when it comes to temperatures – quick changes. Southern jet becoming more active. These are things I look for as we move towards March.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
St Louis
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
