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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Abbreviated update. Today is a travel day for me.
Sunday night – Flash flood watch. Showers. Windy. Thunderstorms also possible. Temperatures will likely rise late at night as the area of low pressure approaches.
Temperatures: Lows in the 40s, but rising into the 50s towards morning. Temperatures may vary quite a bit over the region.
Winds: Northeast winds at 10-20 mph. Gusts above 30 mph possible. Winds will vary depending on which side of the front you are located.
What is the chance for precipitation? 90%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Some flooding possible in some of our local counties.
Monday – Flash flood watch. Widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Windy. Temperatures may vary greatly from north to south. A period of heavy rain.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s, colder temps over our north and northwest counties. Falling temperatures possible in the afternoon.
Winds: Southeast winds becoming southwest at 10-20 mph. Winds Monday morning into afternoon could top 30 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 100%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain possible. Some flooding possible in some of our local counties.
Monday night – Rain ending. Gusty winds. Colder.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to around 40.
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 30 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered early
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but a few showers may remain in the area.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Potential for large rises on some rivers and streams.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy and colder.
Temperatures: Highs in the 38 to 45 degree range
Winds: West/southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Rivers and streams may have flooding problems. Large rises on rivers are possible over the coming week.
Some light rain or flurries possible Tuesday night.
Some light rain perhaps on Wednesday (low confidence on that). Normal to below normal temperatures as we push into next week. It will feel more like winter.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Heavy rain is the main concern. Another round on Monday
2. High winds possible late Sunday night into Monday. Gusts above 40 mph possible
3. Major river flooding will occur over the next ten days. Especially the Mississippi River
4. Much colder weather Tuesday into the first ten days of January.
5. Avoid flooded roadways.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
This is a travel day for me. I will be brief.
Flash flood watch in green. Entire area.
The focus of this update is on the strong area of low pressure approaching our region Sunday night into Monday afternoon. This low will pass to our west. This places us on the warm side of the system. Heavy rain and storms will likely occur on Monday as the storm system approaches and moves through our region.
Another 1″-2″ of rain will be possible with the cold front. This will be on top of the other rain that has fallen since Wednesday. Some locations will top 5″ of rain for the week.
Gusty winds will occur because of the tight pressure gradient. Isobars, equal lines of pressure, will become tightly packed late Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds may gust over 40 mph. This could topple some shallow rooted trees. The ground is saturated. Thus, tree damage is more likely.
The severe weather risk will be minimal on Monday. More concerned about heavy rain.
Here is the latest HRRR high resolution model guidance for 3 am tomorrow (Monday morning). This will be the next big push of precipitation.
Image is from weatherbell.com You can click it for a larger view. That yellow is moderate rain.
Let me show you the storm system that will approach Sunday night into Monday via the GFS model. You can see the lines. Those are isobars. Equal lines of pressure.
This is for Sunday evening. You can see some rain over our area (green). Ice back in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Major winter storm for those areas. But, not for us. The low, on this chart, is down in northeast Texas. See the circle of isobars?
This image is for the lunch hour on Monday. Lot of rain for our region. Some heavy. Gusty winds, as well.
This next image is for Monday evening at 6 pm. Snow and ice over northern Missouri into Iowa and then Wisconsin. Orange is sleet. Blue/purple would be snow. Notice the green is moving out of our region. Rain ending Monday night/Tuesday morning.
Large rises are expected on the Mississippi River and perhaps the Ohio River. And, of course, smaller rivers and streams in the heavy rain areas will also flood.
The highest risk zone for flooding will be over parts of Missouri and Illinois.
Please avoid flooded roadways.
Some watches in our region (and perhaps some warnings coming)
Clickable map
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
No snow anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday night – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated. Small chance for flurries Tuesday night. But, should be light rain.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
No major changes in this update.
The main concern will be heavy rain. Severe weather risk isn’t zero. But, it also isn’t large.
Another concern will be high winds Sunday night into Monday. Winds could gust over 40 mph. With soggy ground there could be some trees come down.
River flooding is a major concern over the coming 10 days. Especially along the Mississippi River.
Yes, monitor weather updates.
Umbrellas Sunday night into Monday.
Monitor the rainfall situation. Some flash flood warnings are possible over the coming two days.
Major flooding on some area rivers will increasingly become a problem. Monitor river stages.
The wild card will be rainfall totals Sunday night into Monday. Will someone pick up another 2″ of rain. Some spots have already picked up over four inches. It is certainly possible that someone could pick up another 2″ between Sunday afternoon/night into Monday.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
From Sunday afternoon into Monday we can expect another 1-3″. But, I can’t rule out locally heavier amounts.
Some flooding is possible.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ONE on Sunday into Monday. Some lightning possible. Right now the severe weather risk appears small. However, monitor updates
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Sunday – Monitor updates. Storms are possible
Monday – Monitor updates. Storms are possible.
Tuesday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday through next Friday – No severe weather concerns.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
