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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Saturday night – Cloudy. A chance for scattered showers and a small chance for a rumble of thunder.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% east and 40%-50% west.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? A few showers possible
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Windy at times.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Sunday – Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning. Increasing rain coverage over southeast Missouri during the morning hours. Spreading eastward during the late afternoon hours. Gusty winds. A rumble of thunder can’t be ruled out.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 60s ahead of the front.
Winds: South/southeast winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30+ mph. Winds becoming more south/southwest late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% before 12 pm and then increasing to 80% during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread as the day wears on. Rain will be slow to move east during the morning. Our eastern counties may not experience much rain till late on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? There could be some rain in the region. Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No, but strong winds likely with the cold front.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Some heavy downpours possible. Strong and gusty winds.
Sunday night – Cloudy. Windy. Rain likely. A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s (perhaps a bit lower temperatures if the front pushes through quickly)
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 30+ mph. Winds may turn around to the west after 3 am on Monday morning.
What is the chance for precipitation? 100%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Is severe weather expected? No, but strong winds likely with the cold front.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Strong and gusty winds. Rumble of thunder possible.
Monday – Cloudy. Perhaps some morning showers. Windy at times. Decreasing clouds possible later in the day.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 50s. Temperatures might not rise much on Monday
Winds: Southwest/west winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early in the morning. Decreasing chances as the day wears on.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered early in the morning
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways in the morning.
Monday night – Mostly clear and colder.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: West/southwest wind at 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the 56 to 62 degree range
Winds: South/southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Some clouds possible. Small shower chance.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40s.
Winds: West/southwest wind at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? No serious impacts
Wednesday – Some clouds. A chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the 52 to 56 degree range
Winds: West/southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways perhaps
Wednesday night – Some clouds. Colder. Small chance for evening precipitation.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 30s
Winds: West/northwest wind at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly cloudy and much colder.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None expected
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Main focus is the rain event and the timing from west to east
2. Colder air likely by Thursday-Sunday. Below normal temperatures by Thursday.
3. Small chance for showers with a cold front around Tuesday night/Wednesday.
Our long talked about rain maker is knocking at the door. Rain will develop to our west and southwest on Saturday night into Sunday morning. This rain will spread east/northeast over the next 12-24 hours. The main rain shield will push into southeast Missouri late Saturday night into Sunday morning. It won’t be in a hurry to move east. You will likely notice on radar that the rain will move south to north. All the while, the band will slowly shift eastward.
The rain will push further into our region on Sunday afternoon and night. Much of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee may only have scattered showers on Saturday night into Sunday morning. If you read yesterday’s update then you saw me mention that the system slowed by about 6-12 hours.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Let me show you a few future-cast radar maps from weatherbell.com. Click the image for a larger view. This is what radar might look like over the next 24-36 hours.
Starting with Saturday night around 11 pm. You can see some patchy showers in our region. Green indicates rain. Yellow is heavier rain. Blue is snow.
Moving ahead to Sunday morning at 6 am. See the main rain band to our west. Slowly shifting eastward. It is not in a hurry.
Moving ahead to Sunday around 11 am. Rain is filling in a bit more. As we move through Sunday our western counties will have the best chance of rain. That would be southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Rain spreads eastward with time. See that skinny yellow band in southwest Missouri into Arkansas? That could be a skinny line of low topped convection. Maybe a rumble of thunder. Gusty winds with that line.
Then moving ahead to Sunday evening around 6 pm. A lot of rain in our region. Widespread rain.
Then moving ahead to Sunday night around 11 pm. Rain rain rain.
Moving ahead to Monday morning around 6 am. The rain has become more scattered and is moving out of our area. Most of Monday will be rain-free.
A few more graphics
This is the 850 mb wind fields. See the purple? Those are winds in the 60-75 knot range. This is about 5000′ above the surface. Very strong winds. Some of those winds could be transported downward with low topped convection.
English: Strong winds are likely with the cold front on Sunday into Sunday night. Gusts above 40 mph will be possible.
Here is a higher resolution view of the future-cast radar. This is for Sunday around 3 pm. See the red line? Thin red line in Missouri and Arkansas. That could produce strong winds. This is classic for the winter months. I see this all the time in the winter. Normally strong winds occur with a setup like this.
Moving forward to 6 pm. That red line is moving eastward.
Moving ahead to 9 pm. The line has weakened a bit, but strong winds are still likely. This is the main push of rain with the cold front.
Right now it appears that a few rumbles of thunder will be possible over southeast Missouri on Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. Smaller chances for the rest of the area. Not anticipating severe weather. We have been extremely fortunate with all of our warm weather in December to not have had a severe weather outbreak. Hopefully our luck will continue. I am tracking a couple of more systems later this month.
Gusty winds, however, will be an issue with this system. You can expect winds to be gusting in the 30-40 mph range on Sunday into Sunday night. The strongest winds will be near the cold front. Not the best conditions for outdoor holiday decorations. They might be blown around a bit.
Rainfall totals with this system will range from 0.70″ to 2.00″. The heavier totals (1″-2″) will be over southeast Missouri. Lesser totals (0.70″-1″) over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Much of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee will record between 0.70″-1.50″.
We will dry out on Monday. Perhaps a few remaining showers on Monday morning (early). The significant rain, however, will have moved east.
Another cold front will push into the region on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This front will have some clouds and perhaps a few light showers associated with it. Not expecting much. It is possible the front will push through with no precipitation. Temperatures should be warm enough for all rain.
Colder air moves into the region on Wednesday night into the weekend. Expect temperatures to be more seasonal. It will feel cold after our recent record warmth. By Thursday highs will actually be below normal. Normal high temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 50 degrees. We have been spoiled lately.
I am watching a system the week of Christmas. I have been talking about it for awhile. A wait and see on whether there will be enough cold air over parts of the Missouri and Ohio Valleys to produce snow. I will continue to watch the trends in the guidance.
Here is one system around December 22nd. Give or take a day. Deep low pressure over Iowa. Thunderstorms for our region? A possibility. Certainly this would be a warm storm. One of many this month.
This is the system around Christmas. Again, click image for a larger view. IF the GFS is right then this would be another warm system.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Let’s look at some rainfall totals from different models. These images are from weatherbell.com
This first one is the NAM model. I zoomed in. Scale is on the right.
Rainfall totals may vary a little bit.
Another regional view
And, finally one more view
No snow anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Updated temperatures and wind. Also fine tuned the wording on the precipitation arrival time.
Some gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the weekend. Especially on Sunday/Sunday night.
Umbrellas will likely be needed on Saturday night into Sunday night. The later we go into Saturday night/Sunday the better odds of rain and possibly some storms.
Very gusty winds are likely on Sunday into Sunday night/Monday morning. Wind gusts above 40 mph possible.
The wild card in this forecast will be wind speeds on Sunday into Monday morning. Gusts above 40 mph will be possible as a strong area of low pressure passes through our region and off to the north. The pressure gradient around this system combined with strong winds aloft could spell some gusty winds for Christmas and holiday decorations.
No significant frost or freeze in the current forecast.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rain is likely over the next 24-36 hours. The main rain shield should arrive on Sunday morning into Sunday night. Spreading from west to east.
Here is the current rainfall forecast for the next 24-36 hours.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a TWO for Saturday night into Sunday evening. Some gusty winds possible with showers and storms.
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Saturday Night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Rumble of thunder possible over southeast Missouri (low chance). Gusty winds.
Sunday: Some thunderstorms are possible. Gusty winds are a good bet.
Monday: Some storms late Sunday night still possible into early Monday morning. But, should be winding down. Gusty winds. The overall thunderstorm risk is fairly low. Meaning, lightning. But, that won’t stop gusty winds from occurring with this system.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
For watches and warnings click the image below. Then, zoom into your local area.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
