We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Wortham Dental Care located in Paducah, Kentucky. The gentle dentist. Mercury free dentistry. They also do safe Mercury removal. You can find Wortham Dental Care on Facebook, as well
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
.
Duck/goose decoys? Game calls? Optics? We have you covered! Click the logo above or visit Final Flight on Facebook, as well.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Friday night – Cloudy. A chance for an isolated shower. Patchy fog or drizzle also possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: South at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Quite a few clouds. Very mild with new record high temperatures. A chance for a few showers.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Winds: Southeast winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Saturday night – Cloudy. A chance for scattered showers and a small chance for a rumble of thunder.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58 to 62 degree range
Winds: South and southeast winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% east and 40%-50% west.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered early and then becoming more widespread late (esp western counties in southeast Missouri)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? A few showers possible
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Windy at times.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Sunday – Cloudy. A few showers in the morning. Increasing rain coverage over southeast Missouri during the morning hours. Spreading eastward during the afternoon hours. Gusty winds. A rumble of thunder can’t be ruled out.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 60s ahead of the front.
Winds: South/southeast winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30+ mph. Winds becoming more south/southwest late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% before 12 pm and then increasing to 80% during the afternoon hours
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread as the day wears on.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Some heavy downpours possible. Strong and gusty winds.
Sunday night – Cloudy. Windy. Rain likely. A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s (perhaps a bit lower temperatures if the front pushes through quickly)
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 30+ mph. Winds may turn around to the west after 3 am on Monday morning.
What is the chance for precipitation? 90%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Possibly. Have a plan B.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Strong and gusty winds. Rumble of thunder possible.
Monday – Cloudy. Perhaps some morning showers. Windy at times. Decreasing clouds possible later in the day.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 50s. Temperatures might not rise much on Monday
Winds: Southwest/west winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early in the morning. Decreasing chances as the day wears on.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered early in the morning
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways in the morning.
Monday night – Mostly clear and colder.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: West/southwest wind at 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the 55 to 60 degree range
Winds: South/southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Some clouds possible. Small shower chance.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Winds: West/southwest wind at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? No serious impacts
Wednesday – Some clouds. A chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: West/northwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways perhaps
Wednesday night – Some clouds. Small chance for precipitation.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 30s
Winds: Northwest wind at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Cloudy. A 20% chance for light precipitation.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Spotty
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible if precipitation does occur. Low confidence.
Click their ad below to visit their web-site or click here reedelec.com
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Some light showers possible Friday night into Saturday night. The more moderate to heavy rain will hold off until Sunday/Sunday night.
2. Potential for quite a bit of rain on Saturday night into Sunday night. System has slowed a bit.
3. Strong winds likely Sunday and Sunday night/Monday morning.
4. Colder air next week?
Welcome to the weekend!
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I have not heard anyone complain about the past week. Above normal temperatures have been the rule. Let’s take a look at the December temperature anomalies, thus far.
This is the month to date anomalies. And, we are about to add to them. Just look at the huge expanse of above normal temperatures. Pretty much the entire nation. And, look at Canada. Certainly a mild month, thus far for many.
Here is the temperature anomaly forecast for Saturday. How many degrees above normal will it be? Well, here is your answer. Normal high temperatures are around 50 degrees. We will be well above that on Saturday. Expect highs to top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Moving ahead to Sunday. Temperatures will remain well above normal.
I do suspect colder air will filter into our region by Wednesday or Thursday of the new work week. But, this air will likely only bring us down to near normal levels. Still not true arctic outbreaks in the cards. Let’s keep enjoying it.
A significant storm system will impact our region over the weekend. A deep area of low pressure will develop over Oklahoma and Kansas on Saturday and Saturday night. This low will then move into Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois on Sunday. It will continue to deepen as it moves into the Great Lakes on Sunday night and Monday.
This area of low pressure will cause several things to happen in our region. One will be gusty winds. Expect winds gusting in the 20-30 mph range on Saturday. Then on Saturday night into Sunday night winds will be gusting from 15-35 mph. I can not rule out some gusts above 40 mph on Sunday/Sunday night. Some of the models are showing very strong winds right off the deck (meaning a few thousand feet aloft). Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms could help transport these gusty winds to the surface. Not the best weather for Christmas decorations!
The second thing that this system will deliver is a widespread rain event. I am forecasting 0.75-2 inches of rain for our region. Most of that rain will fall on Saturday night into Sunday night. The later into Saturday night we go the more widespread the rain will become over our western counties of southeast Missouri. The system has slowed a little bit. That means the rest of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee will have to wait a bit longer for the rain to arrive. Mostly Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Again, remember…a few showers are possible at any given time from Friday night into Saturday night. It is the widespread rain that will hold off the longest.
The highest amounts will be over our western counties in southeast Missouri. Lesser amounts over our far eastern counties. Eastern means the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Western meaning Poplar Bluff to Farmington, Missouri.
If you have outdoor plans on Saturday (DAY) then plan on some spotty showers, but not a washout. Gusty winds possible.
We should dry out on Monday and that dry weather should last into Wednesday morning. A second cold front (with colder air behind it than this first system) will arrive on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A few showers are possible along the front.
A few remaining showers are possible on Monday morning.
Let’s look at the NAM model guidance. We are now in the range of the short range computer models. NAM is one of those models.
This is the forecast weather map for Sunday morning at 6 am. You can see the bulk of the green and blue (rain) off to our west. The colors represent rainfall totals during a three hour period. Note that the system has slowed a little bit from previous forecasts.
Moving ahead to Sunday evening. This is the 6 pm hour. It is possible that the bulk of the rain will hold off until Sunday afternoon and Sunday night for much of our region (excluding our western counties in southeast Missouri). Again, some showers are possible at any given time Friday night into Saturday night. But, mostly dry during that time frame. Spotty showers.
Moving ahead to 9 pm on Sunday night. Rain continues to overspread our area. Rain could be a few hours faster than depicted here.
Let me show you the future-cast radar from the NAM guidance.
This first image is for 6 am on Sunday. Rain is spreading eastward through our region. The blue up north would be snow.
Moving ahead to the 11 am to 1 pm hours. Scattered rain over our region. The main band is still to our west.
The moving ahead to the dinner hour. Around 5 pm to 7 pm. Rain overspreading our region.
Gusty winds are possible on Sunday. Here is the NAM wind forecast. The green colors represent winds above 25-30 mph (map is in knots). This map is for Sunday afternoon.
Then for Sunday evening. Gusty winds!
No snow anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Updated both temperature and precipitation outlooks. Pushed the widespread rain back a few hours for parts of the area.
Some gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the weekend. Especially on Sunday/Sunday night.
Umbrellas will likely be needed on Saturday night into Sunday night. The later we go into Saturday night/Sunday the better odds of rain and possibly some storms.
Very gusty winds are likely on Sunday into Sunday night/Monday morning. Wind gusts above 40 mph possible.
The wild card in this forecast will be wind speeds on Sunday into Monday morning. Gusts above 40 mph will be possible as a strong area of low pressure passes through our region and off to the north. The pressure gradient around this system combined with strong winds aloft could spell some gusty winds for Christmas and holiday decorations.
No significant frost or freeze in the current forecast.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A few showers will be possible on Saturday (DAY). Showers are expected to be light. less than 0.10″ of rainfall.
A heavier rain event is unfolding for Saturday night into Sunday night. The main rain shield will arrive on Sunday and Sunday night.
Here is the latest official rainfall forecast from the WPC. Click image from weatherbell.com to enlarge
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a TWO for Saturday night into Sunday evening. Some gusty winds possible with showers and storms.
.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Saturday night: A few storms possible. Gusty winds.
Sunday: Some thunderstorms are possible. Gusty winds.
Monday: Some storms late Sunday night still possible into early Monday morning. But, should be winding down. Gusty winds.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
For watches and warnings click the image below. Then, zoom into your local area.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
