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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
A disturbance moving across the Ohio Valley will bring unsettled weather from today through Saturday.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms at times, with rain chances around 30% to 60% each day.
There will be plenty of dry time, as well.
The probability of rain will vary greatly across the region. See those graphics below.
This morning, the best chance for rain will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois as a weakening area of showers and thunderstorms moves through. The main concerns with these storms will be:
- 🌧️ Heavy downpours
- ⚡ Frequent lightning
Widespread severe weather is not expected.
As we move into Friday and Friday night, the better chances for showers and thunderstorms will shift farther east before gradually ending Saturday morning.
Rainfall totals will vary. I would not be surprised if some locations receive no measurable rain. Other areas will pick up over an inch. A typical summer rain pattern.
Slow-moving thunderstorms can always produce higher totals. Keep that in mind.
☀️ Hot Weather Returns
Sunday and Monday will be mostly dry, but hotter and more humid weather will return.
- 🌡️ High temperatures will climb into the lower 90s.
- 🥵 With humidity increasing, it will feel like 100 to 105 degrees during the afternoon.
🌦️ Next Week
By the middle of next week, the weather pattern becomes more active again.
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will return, helping to cool temperatures back into the 80s during the second half of the week.
We already have rain on the radars this morning. Here was the 6:30 AM radar animation.
That area of showers and thunderstorms will be weakening as it moves east southeast.
See the live radar links below.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
August 6th through August 12th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: NOT ANTICIPATED. I will monitor this afternoon and evening. A couple of storms in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois could be strong. Gusty winds would be the primary concern.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Isolated to scattered lightning is anticipated today, tomorrow, and Saturday. I will monitor next Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO. Keep in mind, slow-moving summer showers and thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rain. If showers and thunderstorms train over the same area, then some localized issues could develop.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. The chance of 90 degrees and above is more likely from Sunday through Wednesday. Some scattered 90-degree readings are possible today through Saturday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Sunday through Tuesday. I will monitor Wednesday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary GREATLY (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
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Let’s Look At The Five-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals. Some areas could miss out on the rain, as well. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
Use these graphics as a general guide.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
Thursday
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Thursday night
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Friday
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Friday night
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Saturday
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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NAM 3K Model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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