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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
Good morning,
I hope you have a great week. We will have scattered showers and thunderstorms today, tonight, and early Saturday morning. Some areas will miss out.
I was not thrilled with yesterday’s forecast (for some). The rain ended up several counties farther east-southeast than I expected. It has certainly been a tricky summer for forecasting. It seems most of the events ended up overachieving. I know several other meteorologists have mentioned this, as well.
A weather system moving through the region will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms today through Saturday. Again, some areas will miss out.
There is a 20% to 50% chance of rain, with the best chance for storms this evening, especially across southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.
The main concerns with any storms will be:
- 🌧️ Heavy downpours
- ⚡ Frequent lightning
- 💨 Gusty winds
While widespread severe weather is not expected, an isolated strong storm is possible.
Rain chances will gradually shift east of the Mississippi River on Saturday before decreasing later in the day.
Most areas are expected to receive 0.05 to 0.50 inches of rain, but a few locations could pick up higher amounts. Typical for summer.
🥵 Heat and Humidity Return This Weekend
Hotter and more humid weather (higher dew points) will build into the region over the weekend.
- 🌡️ High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
- 💧 Humidity will increase, making it feel like 100 to 108 degrees during the afternoon.
- 🔥 These heat index values could last for four consecutive days, and Heat Advisories may be needed if the forecast remains the same.
A few spots could briefly reach a 100-degree heat index today, but clouds and scattered storms should keep the dangerous heat from becoming widespread.
☀️ Looking Ahead
Sunday and Monday will be mostly dry, with hot and humid conditions continuing.
By late Tuesday into Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to return as another weather system moves into the area.
A cold front later next week should bring slightly cooler temperatures, with highs returning to near or a little below normal by the second half of the week.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
August 7th through August 13th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: NOT ANTICIPATED. A couple of storms could be strong today. Severe weather is unlikely. Gusty winds would be the primary concern. Lightning, as well.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Isolated to scattered lightning is anticipated today and tonight. Isolated lightning tomorrow morning. Another chance next Tuesday night and Wednesday. I will monitor Thursday and Friday of next week.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO. Keep in mind, slow-moving summer showers and thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rain. If showers and thunderstorms train over the same area, then some localized issues could develop.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. The chance of 90 degrees and above is more likely from Sunday through Wednesday. Some scattered 90-degree readings are possible today through Saturday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Sunday through Tuesday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary GREATLY (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
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Let’s Look At The Two-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals. Some areas could miss out on the rain, as well. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
⚠️ This is just for today through Saturday. This does not include the middle of next week.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
Friday
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Friday night
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Saturday
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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NAM 3K Model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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