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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
A nice day ahead of us. Especially for August. No complaints.
Some areas are a bit dry. Not everyone received the heavy rain over the last several weeks. Although many areas did.
Today will be another dry and comfortable day, with warm temperatures and pleasant conditions.
A cold front will move closer to the region on Thursday, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms.
- 🌦️ A few showers and storms may develop Thursday morning, mainly across southeast Missouri and western southern Illinois.
- ☀️ Much of Thursday afternoon should be dry. Perhaps a couple of showers and thunderstorms on the weather radars.
- ⛈️ Rain and storm chances will increase again Thursday night through Friday, with 30% to 60% chances.
- 🌧️ Showers will gradually come to an end Saturday morning.
Keep in mind, not everyone will receive rain, but some areas could see several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
⚠️ The overall risk of severe weather on Thursday is low. Maybe not zero. The concern would mainly be across southeast Missouri and maybe the Mississippi River counties of southern Illinois. A few reports of gusty wind will be possible.
🥵 Hotter Weather Returns
Summer is not quite done with us. We still have some hot days ahead, of course.
High pressure will build back into the region on Sunday, bringing rising temperatures. The higher dew points will return, as well. That means that it will feel muggy.
- 🌡️ High temperatures on Sunday will climb into the lower 90s.
- 💧 Humidity will increase, making it feel like 100 to 105 degrees during the afternoon.
- ☀️ Hot and mainly dry weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday.
🌦️ Looking Ahead
Another chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Tuesday night into Wednesday, with 20% to 30% rain chances. These storms could provide some relief from the heat. Not everyone will receive measurable rain.
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
August 5th through August 12th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: LOW RISK. I will monitor Thursday afternoon and evening. A couple of storms in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois could be strong. Gusty winds would be the primary concern.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Isolated to scattered lightning is anticipated from Thursday into Saturday. I will monitor next Monday through Thursday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO. Keep in mind, slow-moving summer showers and thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rain. If showers and thunderstorms train over the same area, then some localized issues could develop.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. The chance of 90 degrees and above is more likely from Sunday through Wednesday. Some scattered 90-degree readings are possible today through Friday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Next Sunday through Tuesday. I will monitor Tuesday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
* Scroll down to see your local city rain probability maps.
-> Chances will vary GREATLY (see your area’s graphics further down in this weather blog update)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
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Let’s Look At The Five-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
Use these graphics as a general guide.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Thursday
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Thursday night
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Friday
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Friday night
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Saturday
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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NAM 3K Model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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