.
.
Key Seven-Day Weather Information
A fairly calm weather pattern has settled into the region.
Temperatures over the last few days have been below seasonal averages. The humidity has not been awful. All in all, decent weather for early August.
High pressure is keeping the weather quiet across the region, while a slow-moving storm system remains southeast of us.
With clear skies, light winds, and leftover moisture, patchy fog may develop early this morning.
Temperatures will warm into the mid-to-upper 80s today, then climb into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees on Wednesday.
⛈️ Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Increase Thursday
A weather system moving across the central United States will push a cold front closer to our area on Thursday.
- 🌦️ The best chance for showers and thunderstorms (40% to 60%) will be Thursday evening and Thursday night, especially across the western part of the region.
- ⚠️ A few storms could become strong, with gusty winds being the main threat. Lightning and locally heavy summer downpours, as well. Typical for August.
- Some areas will miss out on the rain. Not everyone will receive measurable precipitation.
🌧️ Scattered Showers Continue Into the Weekend
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Friday into Saturday, with 20% to 40% rain chances.
While a few storms are possible, the risk for severe weather remains low.
🌡️ Temperature Outlook
- 🌤️ Today: Highs in the middle to upper 80s
- ☀️ Wednesday through Saturday: Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees
- 🥵 Early next week: Highs return to the lower 90s
Humidity (dew points) will also increase early next week, making it feel like 100 degrees or higher during the afternoon. Another stretch of hot and humid weather is expected by Monday and Tuesday.
Summer is not over.
It is a bit early for an autumn forecast. I am monitoring the emerging strong El Niño in the Pacific. Other factors will go into the forecast, as well.
.
.
.
🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
August 4th through August 11th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: NOT AT THIS TIME. I will monitor Thursday afternoon and evening. A couple of storms in southeast Missouri could be strong.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
.
Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Isolated to scattered lightning is anticipated from Thursday into early next week.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO. Keep in mind, slow-moving summer showers and thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rain. If showers and thunderstorms train over the same area, then some localized issues could develop.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. The chance of 90 degrees and above is more likely from Sunday onward. Some isolated 90-degree readings are possible before that, but chances are lower.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. Next Sunday and Monday. I will monitor Tuesday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
.
.
Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
* Scroll down to see your local city rain probability maps.
.
Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
.
.
Let’s Look At The Five-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
Use these graphics as a general guide.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
.
.
Thursday
.
.
Thursday night
.
.
Friday
.
.
.
Friday night
.
Saturday
.
Saturday night
.
Sunday
.
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
.
NAM 3K Model
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
.
.
We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
.
https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF
Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
