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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
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I feel like we are living the movie Groundhog Day. Each day the forecast is basically the same.
Keep in mind over the coming week: Slow moving storms can produce 1-3″ of rain per hour. This can cause flash flooding.
Sunset will be at 7:59 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 5:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:50 p.m. New Moon
I will be monitoring a complex of thunderstorms late tonight coming out of eastern Missouri or western Illinois. It is possible that these storms will push into our region after 3 am. If this does occur then locally heavy rain may move into parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late tonight. Perhaps parts of western Kentucky. Lower confidence there.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Patchy fog late. A few evening thunderstorms possible. Thunderstorms may redevelop late tonight from the northwest and north. Some storms could be heavy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before 10 pm and 40% after 10 pm (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered early. I will be monitoring a potential complex of thunderstorms coming out of northeast Missouri and central Illinois late tonight. This area of storms should move south and southeast.
Is severe weather expected? Storm could produce gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 3, 2016
Wednesday – Patchy fog early. Partly sunny. Hot and humid. A chance for thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could be heavy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range. Heat index 100+
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50% numbers might need adjusting if an MCS/thunderstorm complex forms on Tuesday night.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered storms possible.
Is severe weather expected? Storms can produce isolated reports of strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:01 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:59 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Very high. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:30 p.m. New Moon
Wednesday Night – A few evening clouds. Isolated thunderstorm possible before 9 pm. Otherwise, a chance for thunderstorms after 1 AM.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated early in the evening. I will be watching to see if another complex of storms forms late Wednesday night. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Maybe an isolated storm in the evening with gusty winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 4, 2016
Thursday – Partly sunny hot and humid. Muggy. Scattered thunderstorms are again possible. Some question on coverage.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range. Heat index 105+
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Storms can produce isolated reports of strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:03 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:57 p.m.
UV index will be 10-11. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 7:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:06 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Warm and muggy. Isolated evening storm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Maybe an isolated storm in the evening with gusty winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 5, 2016
Friday – Mostly sunny how and humid. Muggy. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-96 degree range. Heat index 105+
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Storms can produce isolated reports of strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:04 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:56 p.m.
UV index will be 10-11. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 8:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:40 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Warm and muggy. Isolated storm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%. Monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Maybe an isolated storm in the evening with gusty winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 6, 2016
Saturday – A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range. Heat index above 96 degrees. Temperatures on Saturday will be dependent on cloud cover.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Storms can produce isolated reports of strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:04 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:55 p.m.
UV index will be 10-11. Very high. If we have more clouds on Saturday then this number would need to be lowered.
Moonrise will be at 9:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:11 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Saturday Night – Some clouds. Thunderstorms possible as a front stalls near the region.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 7, 2016
Sunday – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? A few thunderstorms could become severe. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:05 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:57 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 10:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:42 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% Monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Storm chances?
- Hot and muggy air
- Cold front this weekend?
It has already been a long week of weather for some of you. On Monday we had several counties with flash flooding. Roads were even washed out in parts of McCracken and Graves Counties. It rained about 1″-3″ in parts of those two counties. Not all that much. It came down so fast that it caused problems. Some homes were also flooded.
Parts of southeast Missouri picked up more than four inches of rain on Monday.
On Monday night a complex of thunderstorms formed over eastern Missouri. This complex produced 6″-8″+ of rain across several counties. Here is a map of Monday nights rainfall totals.
The scale is on the left. The orange and yellow colors represents 4-8″ of rain. You will remember that the night before brought flash flooding to western and central Missouri. Monday night it shifted eastward a bit.
Click image to enlarge
The boundary will remain in the region tonight. The WRF model guidance is showing yet another complex of thunderstorms forming over Missouri and Illinois. It would then slide south and east. This is a possibility.
Here is a GIF animation showing the potential. Not a sure bet.
The boundary that produced the heavy rain, over the past few days, will slowly more east and northeast. There could be another round of storms on Tuesday night over parts of northern and central Illinois. Perhaps into southern Illinois. This will need to be monitored. See the above gif animation graphic.
Here are two different model opinions for late tonight. There will be a front to our north and west. It is more of a wind shift line. The low level jet will kick up a bit later tonight. That could help trigger another complex of storms.
Here is one model for 6 am Wednesday morning. Just one models opinion.
This next model has similar ideas. Not exact. This is for 7 am on Wednesday morning.
A ridge of high pressure is slowly building into our area. This ridge of high pressure will deliver temperatures into the 90’s and heat index values from 100 to 110 degrees. That would occur outside of clouds and precipitation. When clouds and precipitation are present you can expect lower temperatures.
You can see that ridge of high pressure on this chart
Notice where the core of the heat is located in relation to the ridge of high pressure?
Hot temperatures over much of the central United States. Heat ridge.
Yet another cold front will sag into our region on Saturday and Sunday. This front might stall out over our local counties. If it does stall out then rounds of showers and thunderstorms will once again enter the picture. Perhaps a bit more widespread. We will need to monitor where the front stalls. Where the front stalls will be key to placement of the MCS’s/thunderstorm complexes. Locally heavy rain will continue to be a problem. Lightning will be a second concern. Isolated downburst winds, as well.
Here is the Saturday and Sunday surface weather map. See the front? That will be our stalled out front this weekend.
Click to enlarge.
Saturday weather map
Sunday weather map
We may also have scattered thunderstorms from Wednesday into Friday. Keep that in mind. Heat of the day pop-up storms could produce 1″-3″ of rain per hour. Getting tired of hearing that? So am I. I don’t see any real pattern shift in the charts.
Heat index values will again pop above 100 degrees. This would be where the sun stays out the longest.
Areas with clouds and precipitation will be cooler, of course.
Wednesday (the lower numbers over southern Missouri is because this particular model believes there will be some clouds and storms in that area).
Thursday
Friday
How much rain is forecast over the coming days? This map is through Tuesday. This is broad-brushed outlook.
Keep in mind that locally heavy storms can drop 1-3″ in an hour. Thus, these totals will vary greatly. This is a broad-brushed map
Wednesday morning low temperature map (temperatures over the coming days will vary based on clouds)
Click images for a larger view
Wednesday high temperature forecast (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
Thursday morning low temperature map
Thursday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday night into Friday: Scattered storms will continue to be possible. Mostly heat of the day storms. We will need to monitor for MCS’s. MCS’s are large thunderstorm complexes. They typically form around the ridge of high pressure. We will be close to the edge of the ridge. These storms normally move in from the north and northwest. Severe weather risk isn’t zero. Downburst winds will be possible with the most intense storms.
Saturday-Monday: A cold front may stall out over the region. Thunderstorm activity might increase during this time period. Heavy rain will be a concern. Lightning will be a concern. Isolated high winds can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates.
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No major changes in this update
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Hot weather will be a concern. Summer heat index values will pop above 100 degrees over the coming days. This can make it dangerous for those working outside. Air temperatures will mostly be from 90-95. The exception will be where clouds are thicker.
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Use care with elderly and children. Heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees over the coming days. Actual air temperatures will range from 90-95.
Avoid flooded roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce 1-3″ of rain per hour. This can lead to flash flooding.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
