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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
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Keep in mind that rainfall probabilities may have to be adjusted. It is difficult to forecast MCS’s days in advance.
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Keep in mind over the coming week: Slow moving storms can produce 1-3″ of rain per hour. This can cause flash flooding.
August 1, 2016
Sunset will be at 8:00 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 4:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:06 p.m. Waning Crescent
Monday Night – Patchy fog possible. Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Torrential downpours again possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before 10 pm and 30% after 10 pm
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A few evening storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 2, 2016
Tuesday – Perhaps some patchy morning fog. A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for a few thunderstorms. Storm chances would need to be raised if an MCS (storm complex) forms to our north on Monday night.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms can cause flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range. Temperatures will be highly dependent on cloud cover.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% (monitor updates because this may change)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Storms can produce isolated reports of strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:01 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:59 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High to possibly very high. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 5:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:50 p.m. New Moon
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A few evening thunderstorms possible. Thunderstorms may redevelop late tonight from the northwest and north. Some storms could be heavy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before 10 pm and 40% after 10 pm (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered early. I will be monitoring a potential complex of thunderstorms coming out of northeast Missouri and central Illinois late tonight. This area of storms should move south and southeast.
Is severe weather expected? Storm could produce gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 3, 2016
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Hot and humid. A chance for thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could be heavy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range. Heat index 100+
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% Perhaps the greatest chance will be over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. % numbers might need adjusting if an MCS/thunderstorm complex forms on Tuesday night.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered storms possible.
Is severe weather expected? Storms can produce isolated reports of strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:01 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:59 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Very high. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:30 p.m. New Moon
Wednesday Night – A few evening clouds. Isolated thunderstorm possible before 9 pm. Otherwise, a slight chance for thunderstorms after 9 pm.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before 10 pm and 20% after 10 pm (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated early in the evening. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Maybe an isolated storm in the evening with gusty winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 4, 2016
Thursday – Mostly sunny how and humid. Muggy. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range. Heat index 105+
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Storms can produce isolated reports of strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:03 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:57 p.m.
UV index will be 10-11. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 7:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:06 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Warm and muggy. Isolated evening storm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Maybe an isolated storm in the evening with gusty winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 5, 2016
Friday – Mostly sunny how and humid. Muggy. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-96 degree range. Heat index 105+
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Storms can produce isolated reports of strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:04 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:56 p.m.
UV index will be 10-11. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 8:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:40 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Warm and muggy. Isolated storm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%. Monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Maybe an isolated storm in the evening with gusty winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 6, 2016
Saturday – A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range. Heat index above 96 degrees. Temperatures on Saturday will be dependent on cloud cover.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Storms can produce isolated reports of strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:04 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:55 p.m.
UV index will be 10-11. Very high. If we have more clouds on Saturday then this number would need to be lowered.
Moonrise will be at 9:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:11 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Saturday Night – Some clouds. Thunderstorms possible as a front stalls near the region.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 7, 2016
Sunday – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? A few thunderstorms could become severe. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:05 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:57 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 10:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:42 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% Monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Sunday nights flash flood event
- Heat is returning
- Weekend cold front?
If you were with me on Sunday you will remember me talking about the potential for another big flash flood event in the Missouri Valley. The question was never whether it would rain or not. The question was placement and how much. I was thinking 3-6″ would be possible. This is the only weather forecast in the entire region that forecasted such large rainfall amounts.
A band of 6″-10″+ rain fell across parts of Iowa into Missouri. A bit to our northwest (which is where I was thinking it would be). I read some storm reports where houses were washed off their foundation by the flash flooding. Big event for parts of the Missouri Valley.
The models did horrible forecasting rain. I kept telling people to ignore the models and forecast the pattern. The pattern favored an overnight flash flood event. You can’t trust models during the summer months when it comes to big rain events. Not a single model forecasted totals anywhere near what happened on Sunday night. Some of the better models showed no rain at all in the regions hardest hit. Modelcasting will burn you every time. You have to look past the models.
Here are two radar estimated rainfall images. The white and grey area represents 6″-10″+ of rainfall
Click images to enlarge
A larger view of the region. Yellow is the heaviest on this particular image. Again, some spots had more than ten inches of rain Sunday night.
Flash flood events have been common this summer.
A heat ridge will build into our region over the coming days. It will brush us. Temperatures, outside of clouds and precipitation, will rise into the 90’s. Heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees will be common-place. The only fly in the ointment, as mentioned, will be some occasional cloud cover and possible thunderstorms.
I will be watching a series of thunderstorm complexes over the coming days. The thinking is the bulk of the rain will track to our north and east. With that said, I suspect some of this will at least clip southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky. This will need to be monitored.
MCS’s (thunderstorm complexes) are not known for their predictability. The pattern favors a series of them moving from northwest to southeast into the Ohio Valley.
Outside of any MCS’s we will have a hot and muggy air mass blanketing the region. Thunderstorms could randomly pop up in the heat of the day or from any left over outflow boundaries from dying storms. Storms will have no shortage of moisture to work with. Thus, some heavy downpours will again be possible.
The models attempt to develop at least a few storms each day Tuesday into Thursday. The question is coverage. The bigger question will be the movement of MCS’s.
Example
This is the 7 am Tuesday 4 KM WRF model. It does bring some storms into southern Illinois. Click image for a larger view. Image is from weatherbell.com
Here is another example for Wednesday evening. A storm complex coming out of Missouri into Illinois. Low confidence on MCS’s. Normally they are not known for being predictable.
A stronger cold front should arrive on Saturday or Sunday. I am not sure the front will completely clear our region. It may stall out over us. Thunderstorms will increase as this system moves into the region. Let’s keep an eye on Saturday and Sunday.
August is here! We are now ONE month away from meteorologica fall.
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
How much rain is forecast over the coming days? This is broad-brushed outlook.
Keep in mind that locally heavy storms can drop 1-3″ in an hour. Thus, these totals will vary greatly. This is a broad-brushed map
Tuesday morning low temperature map (will vary based on clouds)
Click images for a larger view
Tuesday high temperature forecast (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
Wednesday morning low temperature map
Wednesday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday night and Tuesday. A few storms are possible. Storms could produce heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Tuesday night into Friday: Hot and muggy weather. A few storms can’t be ruled out. I will be monitoring a train of MCS’s (thunderstorm complexes) that should move over parts of the Ohio Valley. Perhaps best chances to our northeast and east. However, a few of these storms complexes might clip our region. Best chances for organized storms would be over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Elsewhere, perhaps a few scattered heat of the day thunderstorms.
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No major changes in this update
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The main concern continues to be heavy downpours. Rainfall totals of 1-3″ per hour will be possible with the heaviest thunderstorms. Lightning is also a concern for outdoor events.
Isolated downburst winds will also continue to be a concern.
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Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
Monitor any watches and warnings that might need to be issued over the coming week.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
