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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Wednesday night – Mostly clear and pleasant.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.
Winds: Northerly winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Mostly sunny. Continued nice weather. Perhaps a little warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Mostly clear and pleasant.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Perhaps an increase in clouds during the afternoon. Mild.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Mostly clear. Perhaps a few clouds late at night.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 60’s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Partly cloudy to perhaps mostly cloudy at times. A small chance for a shower. Warmer than recent days.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Some clouds. A slight chance for a shower. A bit warmer than recent nights.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 60’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Partly cloudy and warm. A chance for a couple of shower or thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns. If a storm forms then lightning is the main concern.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy and warmer. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s.
Winds:
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns. If a storm forms then lightning is the main concern.
Monday – Partly sunny and warmer. More humid, as well. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns. If a storm forms then lightning is the main concern.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. The great weather train continues
2. Small disturbance over the weekend. Believe most areas will remain dry with just a small shower chance.
3. Hot next week? 90’s return?
Folks, it just does not get any better than this in late summer. I did hear a few people say they were even a little chilly during the early morning hours. There were likely some upper 40’s over some rural areas. Many locations have bottomed out in the lower to middle 50’s over the last few nights.
Summer? Is that you?
Sure beats the extremely high dew points back in July that made it feel so hot.
Check out this afternoon’s satellite view (Wednesday afternoon). See those clouds? The white dots on the map? Those are puffy cumulus clouds.
We will tack on a few degrees to the thermometer over the next few days. Expect upper 70’s to around 80 on Thursday and then into the 80’s by Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
Question marks remain on a weak disturbance that brushes our northern counties on Saturday and Sunday. Right now I am keeping rain chances at around 10%-20%. I will continue to keep an eye on this.
More importantly is what happens next week. We will experience warmer temperatures Sunday into most of next week. This will happen as a ridge builds into the area from the southwest. When this happens our temperature goes up. Expect some 90’s next week.
Now, with that said…the latest data is becoming more murky with what happens to what will eventually likely be hurricane Erika. Will it move into Florida? Will it move south of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico? Will it swerve and miss Florida? Still days away until we will know the answer to those questions. But, it needs to be monitored.
Some data brings Erika into Florida and then into the southeast United States. The GFS even tracks it into the Tennessee Valley. Not sure about that, but I will be watching it closely.
Here is Erika and the forecast track from all the different models. This is called a spaghetti plot. It shows you all of the different models and their “opinion” on where the system will track.
Note that quite a few models take this system into the Gulf of Mexico. The odds tend to favor this system hitting Florida and perhaps even re-curving off to the east. Keep checking back if you have interests in the track of this system.
My September forecast has been for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
We will need to monitor the tropics in September. If we were to have substantial widespread rainfall then it could be because of a land-falling tropical system in Texas or along the Gulf of Mexico.
Let’s look at the first part of September and one models forecast for rainfall. This is the anomaly map. Lot of red and brown. That represents below normal rainfall.
This first map is for August 30th through September 4th.
And this one is for September 4th through September 9th. Again, dry weather anticipated. We will see how my September forecast unfolds. August turned out spot on.
The Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service will be holding a couple of spotter classes in September.
Here is the information – click here
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No precipitation is forecast through Sunday. Very small chance for a shower on Saturday. Some data pop a few showers on Sunday into Monday. Believe the overall chances are very low. I will continue to monitor the trends.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO from Thursday through Sunday.
.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance for a thunderstorm.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance for a thunderstorm.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
No major concerns.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
