Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 19, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.

    1. Your detailed day to day forecast
    2. City-view graphic-casts
    3. Severe weather outlook
    4. Forecast discussion
    5. Future-cast radars
    6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Wednesday through Wednesday

1.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Lightning will be possible Friday and Saturday.  For now, I am monitoring next week.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  No.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater,  1″ hail or larger,  and/or tornadoes

3.  Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4.  Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze?  No.

5.  Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

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August 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny. A few clouds from time to time. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84°    SE MO 80° to  85°    South IL  80° to 85°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85°    West KY 80° to 85°    NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 7:41 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62°     MO  58° to 60°     South IL  58° to 62°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62°    West KY 58° to 62°     NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:38 AM
Moonset:  8:32 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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August 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Cooler.  A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86°    SE MO 83° to  85°    South IL  83° to 85°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 85°    West KY 82° to 85°    NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning (KY/TN border).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64°     MO  58° to 62°     South IL  58° to 62°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62°    West KY 58° to 62°     NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:50 AM
Moonset:  9:06 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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August 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast
:  Partly cloudy. A  slight chance of thunderstorms before noon, then a chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  40%    TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85°    SE MO 80° to  84°    South IL  80° to 84°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84°    West KY 80° to 84°    NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.  Wind becoming south late in the day at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
Sunset: 7:39 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Some evening clouds. A few showers and thunderstorms may linger into the evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65°     MO  58° to 62°     South IL  58° to 62°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62°    West KY 58° to 62°     NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 9:02 AM
Moonset:  9:39 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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August 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A few clouds.  A chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86°    SE MO 83° to  86°    South IL  83° to 86°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86°    West KY 83° to 86°    NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 7:38 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65°     MO  60° to 64°     South IL  60° to 64°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64°    West KY 60° to 64°     NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:14 AM
Moonset:  10:11 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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August 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88°    SE MO 83° to  86°    South IL  83° to 86°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86°    West KY 83° to 86°    NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 7:36 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°     MO  62° to 64°     South IL  62° to 65°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66°    West KY 63° to 66°     NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower viability in fog
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:25 AM
Moonset:  10:44 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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August 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A few clouds.  Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88°    SE MO 84° to  88°    South IL  84° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°    West KY 84° to 88°    NW TN 86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 7:34 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70°     MO  64° to 68°     South IL  64° to 68°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°    West KY 64° to 68°     NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:36 PM
Moonset:  11:20 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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August 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 85° to  88°    South IL  85° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 88°    West KY 85° to 88°    NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 7:33 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70°     MO  65° to 68°     South IL  65° to 68°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 68°    West KY 65° to 68°     NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:46 PM
Moonset:  12:01 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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What is the UV index?

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  1.  Cooler and less humid.
  2.  For the most part, dry weather this week (isolated precipitation).

Click to enlarge the graphics.

Remember, this is an average across our local area.  The county by county will vary.  See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.

 

Click graphics to enlarge them.

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Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Today through August 24th:  Severe weather is not anticipated through next Monday.

 

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

 

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated August 18, 2020

A few lightning strikes today (mainly KY/TN) and lower chances Wednesday and Thursday along the KY/TN border.

Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store.  Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

    1.   Monitoring thunderstorm chances.
    2.   Nice temperatures and nice humidity levels over the coming days.
    3.   Warming up a bit as we move into next week.

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Good day, everyone.

The main weather story over the coming days will be weak disturbances moving through the northwest flow.

These weak disturbances can spark a few showers and thunderstorms.

Everyone should remain dry today.  No rain expected.

A low-end chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon near the Kentucky/Tennessee border.  Most areas will remain dry.

There will be an uptick in thunderstorm chances Friday morning into the afternoon hours.  This is likely the greatest chance of thunderstorms over the coming days.

The chance is higher over Kentucky and Tennessee vs Missouri and Illinois.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  No severe weather.  Many areas once again may remain dry.

Another smaller chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday.  Once again, the chances will be slightly higher over Kentucky and Tennessee vs Missouri and Illinois.

For now, I have dry weather forecast Sunday and Monday.

Rainfall totals will range from 0.00″ to 0.50″.  Any slow moving thunderstorms can always drop locally higher totals.

Highs will remain in the 80s and lows in the 60s through Monday.

Overall, not too bad for the Month of August.  All things considered.

The only negative was having to add a few more thunderstorms to the short-range forecast.

I will be watching the tropics next week and the week after.  Wild-cards in the forecast will be any tropical development into the Gulf of Mexico.  If that happens we will have to monitor the track of the decaying system.  Occasionally, these do bring heavy rain into our local area.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at? 
You are looking at different models.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.  All models are wrong.  Some are more wrong than others.  Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation.  If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

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This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This animation is the SPC WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This animation is the 3K American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This next animation is the NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 


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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers  August 19th through August 25th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers  August 26th through September 1st

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 86 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 1.80″

This outlook covers September 1st through the 14th

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

Click the image below to enlarge it.

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Summer outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

June through August

Temperature departures

 

Precipitation

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August temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

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September Temperature Outlook (prelim)

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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)

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October temperature outlook.

October precipitation outlook.

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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