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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Thursday through Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is likely Friday and Saturday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. A chance of some flash flooding Friday and Saturday over Kentucky/Tennessee. Slow moving thunderstorms could produce brief water issues.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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August 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning (KY/TN border).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars (KY/TN)
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. A few more clouds over Kentucky/Tennessee and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms near the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° MO 56° to 62° South IL 56° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated near the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:50 AM
Moonset: 9:06 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of thunderstorms before noon, then a chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% far north and 40% far south IL ~ 20% far north and 50% far south KY ~ 50% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind. Wind becoming southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered over Missouri and Illinois. Scattered to numerous over Kentucky/Tennessee.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 8. High.
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
Sunset: 7:39 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Some evening clouds. A few showers and thunderstorms may linger into the evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 9:02 AM
Moonset: 9:39 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: A bit more sun far north and west in the region and more clouds as you move towards Kentucky/Tennessee. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Greatest chances will be over Kentucky/Tennessee, once again.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° SE MO 83° to 86° South IL 82° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 86° West KY 82° to 85° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. More numerous over our eastern counties vs west. See graphics further down.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 7:38 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Clouds will clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 63° to 665°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:14 AM
Moonset: 10:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of a shower near Hopkinsville. Otherwise, dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88° SE MO 85° to 88° South IL 85° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 88° West KY 85° to 88° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 7:36 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower viability in fog
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:25 AM
Moonset: 10:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 88° South IL 86° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 7:34 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° MO 65° to 68° South IL 65° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 68° West KY 65° to 68° NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:36 PM
Moonset: 11:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 88° South IL 86° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 7:33 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° MO 66° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:46 PM
Moonset: 12:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 88° South IL 86° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° MO 66° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:54 PM
Moonset: 12:00 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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What is the UV index?
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- Cooler and less humid.
- For the most part, dry weather this week (isolated precipitation).
Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through August 28th: Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning is possible Friday and Saturday. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind, as well.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated August 20, 2020
The main concern will be lightning and locally heavy rain Friday and Saturday.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- A nice Thursday
- Thunderstorms return for portions of the region Friday and Saturday.
- Locally heavy rain (mainly over Kentucky/Tennessee). Portions of Missouri and Illinois may remain dry.
- Warmer next week. A bit more humid, as well.
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Well, we do have some weather to talk about.
The Gulf of Mexico system has been trending north and northwest. At one time it appeared this week would be mostly dry. For the most part, it has been.
I had been watching this southern system for adjustments and adjustments continue to be made.
It continues to move further and further north/northwest.
The area will remain dry today and tonight. The system will stay to our south.
The system will spread clouds into the region late tonight into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to move north/northwest into our region by late Friday morning and especially Friday afternoon.
You will notice on radar that precipitation moves in an odd direction. Again, moving southeast to northwest. Spiraling around the upper level low. Remember, low pressure rotates counter-clockwise.
The chance of rain will be higher over Kentucky/Tennessee vs Missouri and Illinois.
You can see the clouds on this morning’s satellite view (to our south and east).
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Rain totals will vary, as always. Slow moving thunderstorms can drop 1.00″ of rain in less than thirty minutes. Generally, rainfall in Missouri and Illinois will range from 0.00 to 0.40″ and 0.40″ to 0.80″ over western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Locally much higher where slow moving thunderstorms move over the same area.
Some locations in Kentucky/Tennessee will remain dry, as well. Typical for August.
Here is the WPC rainfall forecast. You can see the sharp cut-off.
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The WPC also has portions of the region outlined for excessive rainfall. What does that mean? It means that there is a low-end risk of flash flooding.
Friday
Saturday
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Let me show you PWAT values. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.
Purple represents high PWAT values. Lot of moisture for thunderstorms to tap into.
Notice how it spreads northwest into our region. That occurs as the upper level low moves north. Then, notice how it pulls away to the east as the low moves east.
You can see the highest numbers are over Kentucky and Tennessee.
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The bottom line is that you should plan on radar to have some showers/thunderstorms late Friday morning into Friday evening and then another round Saturday.
There remains some debate about Saturday’s rain coverage. For now, I have 20% to 30% chances far west and far north (MO/IL) and then 30% to 40% over extreme southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
This is generally what the % chance of rain will look like.
Friday
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Friday night
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Saturday
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Sunday is currently forecast to be dry. As long as that upper-level low pushes off to the east. For now, it appears that it will. There will be a small (20%) chance of some remaining precipitation over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Looking ahead to next week it appears that it will be a bit warmer and a bit more humid. Dry conditions are forecast Monday through Wednesday. Highs will return to the upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s. Nothing extreme.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers August 20th through August 26th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers August 27th through September 2nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 1.80″
This outlook covers September 1st through the 14th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Click on the images to enlarge them
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September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
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October temperature outlook.
October precipitation outlook.
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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