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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Monday through Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible tonight and Tuesday and again Sunday. Isolated.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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August 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 88° South IL 86° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 88° West KY 86° to 90° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: West at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:43 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear early. A few clouds late. Patchy fog possible. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm over mainly southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° MO 62° to 64° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Calm wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered late. Mainly Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps lower visibility if fog forms. Scattered wet roads and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars late
Moonrise: 4:17 AM
Moonset: 7:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Scattered lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:43 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Any afternoon showers will end. Clearing.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 62° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:26 AM
Moonset: 7:54 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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August 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 82° to 85° South IL 82° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° West KY 82° to 85° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 7:41 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° MO 58° to 60° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:38 AM
Moonset: 8:32 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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August 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° SE MO 83° to 85° South IL 83° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 85° West KY 82° to 85° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:50 AM
Moonset: 9:06 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind. Wind becoming south late in the day at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
Sunset: 7:39 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:02 AM
Moonset: 9:39 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° SE MO 83° to 86° South IL 83° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 7:38 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:14 AM
Moonset: 10:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° SE MO 83° to 86° South IL 83° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 7:36 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Some evening clouds. A chance of widely scattered shower or thunderstorm before 10 PM.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 11:25 AM
Moonset: 10:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° SE MO 83° to 86° South IL 83° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 7:34 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:36 PM
Moonset: 11:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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What is the UV index?
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- Cooler and less humid.
- For the most part, dry weather this week (isolated precipitation).
Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through August 24th: Severe weather is not anticipated through next Monday.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated August 17, 2020
Calm weather for the week ahead.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Cooler and less humid.
- Mostly quiet weather compared to recent weeks.
- September and October outlooks have been updated.
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Well, some of you have been waiting for a cooler and drier air-mass to push into the region. That time has arrived.
Cooler temperatures. Less humid air. Nice.
This is a northwest flow pattern. Typically, during northwest flow we have numerous shower and thunderstorm chances. That is because weak disturbances typically move out of the northern plains and into our region.
This northwest flow pattern won’t be nearly as much precipitation as others.
A strong ridge of high pressure will develop out west. You may be seeing stories about fires and extreme heat on the West Coast. Record high temperatures in California will mean rolling blackouts. Not the best weather.
Fortunately, for our region it means the jet stream will buckle and move from northwest to southeast. Thus, the cooler and less humid air.
The more humid air occurs when we have southerly flow, of course. Winds from the Gulf of Mexico our moist.
I will need to keep a close eye on weak disturbances over the coming seven days.
One of those will arrive tonight and Tuesday. For now, it appears the chance of showers and thunderstorms will be low-end. Perhaps 15% of less. I will monitor for any adjustments. A few clouds and a couple of showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
If rain were to occur it would be more likely over Kentucky and Tennessee vs Missouri and Illinois. Again, for now the chances are lower-end.
Another disturbance will arrive on Thursday and could bring a few clouds and a shower over our eastern counties. That would be the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Another disturbance, a bit stronger, arrives Sunday. I did include low-end shower and thunderstorm chances during that time period.
As far as temperatures go, it will still be warm Monday and then cooler Tuesday into Friday. Temperatures may rebound a bit for the upcoming weekend.
Highs Monday will be in the 86 to 92 degree range. Highs Tuesday through Friday will be in the low to middle 80s. Again, less humid, as well.
Not to bad for the middle of August! Normally, one of our hotter times of the year.
September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
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October temperature outlook.
October precipitation outlook.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Little or no rain in the forecast
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Little or no rain in the forecast
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Little or no rain in the forecast
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Little or no rain in the forecast
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Little or no rain in the forecast
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers August 17th through August 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers August 24th through August 30th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 1.70″
This outlook covers August 28th through September 10th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Click on the images to enlarge them
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September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
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October temperature outlook.
October precipitation outlook.
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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