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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Friday through Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible today. Mainly over western Kentucky and extreme southwest Illinois. Smaller chances elsewhere. A small chance of lightning Saturday and Sunday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Slow moving thunderstorms could cause temporary flooding issues.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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August 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 88° SE MO 84° to 88° South IL 84° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 84° to 88° NW TN 86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:11 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Decreasing clouds overnight. Patchy fog where clearing occurs.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 1:30 AM
Moonset: 4:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. An isolated chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Mostly dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 85° to 88° South IL 85° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 88° West KY 85° to 90° NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 99°
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Just an isolated wet road and lightning. Most will remain dry.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 7:46 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Clearing. Any evening thunderstorms will end. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° MO 65° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated (evening).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A slight chance of wet roadways and lightning early.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 2:18 AM
Moonset: 5:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 83° to 86° South IL 83° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 7:45 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° MO 63° to 65° South IL 63° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 65° West KY 63° to 65° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:14 AM
Moonset: 6:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 82° to 85° South IL 82° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:43 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:17 AM
Moonset: 7:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:43 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° West KY 58° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:26 AM
Moonset: 7:54 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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August 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 7:41 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62° MO 55° to 60° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:38 AM
Moonset: 8:32 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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August 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62° MO 55° to 60° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:50 AM
Moonset: 9:06 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
Sunset: 7:39 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62° MO 55° to 60° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:02 AM
Moonset: 9:39 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 7:38 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62° MO 55° to 60° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:14 AM
Moonset: 10:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 7:36 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62° MO 55° to 60° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:25 AM
Moonset: 10:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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What is the UV index?
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- Warm and muggy.
- A chance of thunderstorms over the coming days. Locally heavy rain.
Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through August 20th: A few storms could produce strong and gusty wind over the coming days. Organized severe weather appears unlikely. Monitor updates.
Tropical funnel clouds are possible. These are harmless.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated August 14, 2020
Locally heavy rain could cause roads to flood. Tropical funnel clouds are possible again today. These are typically harmless and cause no damage. They are more of a novelty than anything.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Warm today and tomorrow. Still a bit humid until the cold front moves through Sunday.
- A few more showers and thunderstorms.
- Cooler next week. Less humid.
We will have some thunderstorms dotting radar today. Not as many as yesterday or the day before. That is the good news.
The bulk of today’s thunderstorms will be over extreme southeast Illinois and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
As you move further west the chances decrease.
Any storms that form will be capable of producing heavy rain and gusty wind. Lightning, of course.
Saturday will be dry for the most part. I say for the most part because a cold front will be pushing into the region from the north. This front will bring a few PM clouds and maybe a couple of light showers. Right now, the chances are lower-end. Not expecting much if anything at all.
Highs on Saturday will top out from 84 to 88 degrees.
Both and Saturday and Sunday will remain somewhat humid.
The front pushes through the region on Sunday. Guidance shows just enough moisture for scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorms. This is mainly across western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Chances are once again lower-end.
Highs on Sunday will top out in the 78 to 85 degree range. Not too bad for August.
Drier air begins to push southward Sunday night and Monday. That means that it will feel less humid. Less muggy. Nicer.
The cooler and drier air will be with us through at least Friday. Only a small chance of showers Wednesday.
Highs next week will be in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Lows will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Low humidity levels. It should feel great outside. A real treat for this time of the year.
September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers August 14th through August 20th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers August 21st through August 27th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 1.70″
This outlook covers August 28th through September 10th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Click on the images to enlarge them
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September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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