Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 13, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.

    1. Your detailed day to day forecast
    2. City-view graphic-casts
    3. Severe weather outlook
    4. Forecast discussion
    5. Future-cast radars
    6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Thursday to Thursday

1.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Lightning is possible today and tomorrow.  Isolated Saturday and Sunday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Low-risk.  Some storms could produce gusty wind.  Tropical funnel clouds, as well.  These do not touch down and do not cause damage.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater,  1″ hail or larger,  and/or tornadoes

3.  Is flash flooding in the forecast? Slow moving thunderstorms could cause temporary flooding issues.

4.  Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze?  No.

5.  Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

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August 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Thursday Forecast
:  Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain.  Tropical funnel clouds are possible.  These do not touch down and they do not cause damage.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~  50%    TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88°    SE MO 84° to  88°    South IL  84° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°    West KY 84° to 88°    NW TN 85° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain and gusty wind. Tropical funnel clouds are possible.  These do not touch down and they do not cause damage.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy.   A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°     MO  66° to 70°     South IL  66° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70°    West KY 68° to 72°     NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: East at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 12:50 AM
Moonset:  3:32 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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August 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday Forecast
:  Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~  40%    TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90°    SE MO 84° to  88°    South IL  84° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°    West KY 84° to 88°    NW TN 86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:11 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.   A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°     MO  66° to 70°     South IL  66° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70°    West KY 66° to 72°     NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 1:30 AM
Moonset:  4:33 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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August 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast
:  Intervals of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 85° to  90°    South IL  85° to 90°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90°    West KY 85° to 90°    NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 7:46 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Clearing.  Any evening thunderstorms will end.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°     MO  66° to 70°     South IL  66° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70°    West KY 66° to 72°     NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated (evening).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Evening wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 2:18 AM
Moonset:  5:30 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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August 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast
:  Intervals of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  30%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88°    SE MO 83° to  86°    South IL  83° to 86°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86°    West KY 83° to 86°    NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Light northerly wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 7:45 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66°     MO  63° to 66°     South IL  63° to 66°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66°    West KY 63° to 66°     NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 3:14 AM
Moonset:  6:24 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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August 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  An isolated thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88°    SE MO 80° to  85°    South IL  80° to 85°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85°    West KY 83° to 86°    NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:43 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64°     MO  58° to 62°     South IL  58° to 62°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62°    West KY 60° to 64°     NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:17 AM
Moonset:  7:12 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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August 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80°    SE MO 76° to  80°    South IL  76° to 80°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80°    West KY 76° to 80°    NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:43 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62°     MO  55° to 60°     South IL  54° to 58°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60°    West KY 55° to 60°     NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:26 AM
Moonset:  7:54 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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August 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80°    SE MO 76° to  80°    South IL  76° to 80°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80°    West KY 76° to 80°    NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 7:41 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62°     MO  55° to 60°     South IL  54° to 58°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60°    West KY 55° to 60°     NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:38 AM
Moonset:  8:32 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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August 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80°    SE MO 76° to  80°    South IL  76° to 80°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80°    West KY 76° to 80°    NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62°     MO  55° to 60°     South IL  54° to 58°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60°    West KY 55° to 60°     NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:50 AM
Moonset:  9:06 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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What is the UV index?

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  1.  Warm and muggy.
  2.  A chance of thunderstorms over the coming days.  Locally heavy rain.

Click to enlarge the graphics.

Remember, this is an average across our local area.  The county by county will vary.  See the detailed forecast above for each area.

 

Click graphics to enlarge them.

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Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Today through August 15th:  A few storms could produce strong and gusty wind over the coming days.  Organized severe weather appears unlikely.  Monitor updates.

Tropical funnel clouds are possible.  These are harmless.

 

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

 

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated August 13, 2020

Locally heavy rain could cause roads to flood.  Tropical funnel clouds are possible again today.  These are typically harmless and cause no damage.  They are more of a novelty than anything.

Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store.  Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

    1.   Warm and humid.
    2.   Unsettled weather with several chances of showers and thunderstorms.
    3.   Locally heavy rain where storms occur.

 

Another unsettled day ahead of us.  August!

Thunderstorms are likely to bubble up during the heat of the day.

Storms that do form will produce torrential rain.  Once again, some flash flooding will be possible.

Tropical funnel clouds are also possible.  Same as yesterday.  There were a bunch of funnel cloud reports.  These tropical funnel clouds rarely touch down and rarely cause damage.  They are more of a weather novelty than anything else.  They are not the same as tornadic supercells or QLCS tornadoes.  They are sort of a hybrid-funnel cloud.

Avoid flooded roadways.

Storms may also produce gusty wind and frequent lightning.  Pea size hail, as well.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the mid-evening hours.

There may be an uptick in activity late tonight along and east of the Mississippi River as a weak impulse pushes across the area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are going to be with us Friday but the activity should begin to end west to east Friday afternoon and night.

That will occur as drier air pushes into the region.

The big question, over the last few days, has been the Saturday through Monday forecast.

I have not been able to pin down when the highest chance of rain will or won’t be.

Now things are becoming clearer.

It now appears that the frontal boundary has sped up and will push into the area Saturday and Saturday night.

This will usher in cooler and drier air.

I can’t rule out at least a few showers and thunderstorms on radar Saturday and Saturday night but the activity should be waning.

If you have weekend plans, then I would not cancel them.  I would, however, monitor updates and radars.  Same as recent weeks.  There will be some activity on radar.

A Canadian high pressure system will begin to influence the area late in the weekend and into next week.

This is great news for those wanting cooler temperatures.  A Canadian ridge would mean cooler and drier air.

There will be low-end shower chances (perhaps a thunderstorm) Sunday afternoon and evening.  Don’t expect much.

The high pressure system will mean cooler and drier air much of next week.  How about highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s!

Low humidity, as well.   All good news for those tired of the Florida air-mass.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at? 
You are looking at different models.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.  All models are wrong.  Some are more wrong than others.  Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation.  If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

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This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This animation is the SPC WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This animation is the 3K American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This next animation is the NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 


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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers  August 13th through August 19th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers  August 20th through August 26th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 1.70″

This outlook covers August 25th through September 7th

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

Click the image below to enlarge it.

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Summer outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

June through August

Temperature departures

 

Precipitation

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August temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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