Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Key Seven-Day Weather Information

🔥 Hot and Muggy Weather To Continue Through The Weekend

Primary concerns:

⚠️ Heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees today through Sunday.

⚠️ A few of the thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight could become severe.  Mainly over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

A low-confidence forecast today and tonight.  There remain questions about whether a cluster of thunderstorms will impact the region later this afternoon and evening.  Monitor updates.

A complex forecast is unfolding over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Upper-level high pressure will remain in place through the rest of the week and strengthen as we head toward the weekend.  That is why it is so hot and muggy.

As a matter of fact, it is already 80 degrees in some locations as of 5 AM this morning!

Later Today

This afternoon and evening, there is a chance of thunderstorms moving through or near our region. The best chance appears to be between 4 PM and 10 PM, although the exact timing could change depending on where the storms develop.

Model guidance is all over the place with this system.  Many models show nothing happening.  A few show severe thunderstorms.  This does not add confidence to the forecast.  This is not unusual for the summer months.

These complexes are extremely difficult to forecast.

This will likely be a now-cast event.  A now-cast is where we have to monitor radar, satellite, and live weather data.  Then, make a six- to twelve-hour forecast.

Monitor updates later today.  I will send out some app alerts.

If storms do form, then some could become strong to severe, with damaging winds being the biggest concern. Wind gusts of 60+ mph cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain will also be possible, which could cause localized flooding, especially if storms move over the same areas repeatedly.

The tornado risk is low.

Weekend Outlook

The heat and humidity will be with us into the weekend. Heat index values could stay near or above 105 degrees through the weekend. Today’s storms may help lower temperatures somewhat, but if they arrive late, it will still be very hot for much of the day.

A weak cold front may move south into the area early next week, bringing a brief break from the heat. Temperatures could drop into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.  Then, temperatures are expected to rise again.

I don’t think we are done with the heat.  It is still August, after all.

Bottom line:
🌩️ Storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and heavy rain the main concerns.  Lightning, of course.
💨 Wind gusts of 60-70 mph are possible in the strongest storms.  Monitor updates.
🌧️ Localized flooding could occur where heavy storms repeatedly track over the same areas.
🔥 Heat and humidity return for the weekend, with heat index values near or above 105°.
🌡️ A brief cooldown may arrive Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️

August 12th through August 19th

A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.

⛈️ Current severe weather risk: POSSIBLE.   There is a risk this afternoon and evening.  The primary concern would be a few thunderstorms producing damaging wind gusts.

It is possible that thunderstorms stay to our east northeast.

There remain questions about thunderstorm coverage.

A level two risk has been outlined for portions of southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  A lower risk everywhere else.  See the graphics below.

Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook for today, tomorrow, and Thursday.

Light green is where thunderstorms are possible, but likely below severe limits.

Dark green is a level one out of five risk.  A low-level risk.

Yellow is a level two out of five risk.  A low-level risk, but slightly higher than the level one.

The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts.

The SPC could still shift this around a bit.  Pay attention to the forecast and not the colors on the map.

If storms form, then some could become severe.

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🌪️ Current tornado risk:  LOW RISK.  A few storms could be severe this afternoon and tonight.  The tornado risk is low.  When we have severe thunderstorms, the risk is rarely zero, but it is low.

If something were to spin up, then it would be brief and low-end.

The primary severe weather concern will be damaging wind gusts.  Frequent lightning, as well.

🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM.

Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)

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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.  Dew points control how muggy it feels.

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Let’s Look At The Two-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast

⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.

⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals.  Some areas could miss out on the rain, as well.  Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.

These totals are through the weekend.

Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways to receive severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon, it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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