.
.
Key Seven-Day Weather Information
We did have a few severe thunderstorms yesterday. Warnings were issued for portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Mostly for strong and gusty winds.
There was some tree damage from the storms. Frequent lightning, as well.
The risk of severe weather is quite a bit lower today. Any threat today would be confined to southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky. And, even there, the risk is low.
A few leftover showers and possibly a thunderstorm will move across the northern parts of the area this morning. Rain chances should decrease quickly around sunrise.
See the live radars below.
Here is what the radar looked like at 6 AM
.
High pressure will build back over the region today. Most areas should stay dry, but another group of thunderstorms may develop north of the area and move southeast this afternoon and evening.
There is a small chance these storms could reach southwest Indiana and nearby parts of western Kentucky and southern Illinois. The chance is highest near the Evansville Tri-State, around 20-30%. If storms develop, damaging winds would be the main concern.
🔥 The biggest story will be the extreme heat.
High pressure will strengthen through the rest of the week and into the weekend, bringing even hotter and more humid conditions.
An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect, with heat index values expected to reach 105-115 degrees through the weekend. This will be a dangerous and prolonged period of extreme heat.
There is a little good news.
A front may move south into the region Monday, bringing a brief break from the heat. Temperatures could fall into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The heat may build back in after that. Summer is not quite over.
Bottom line:
🌦️ A few showers/storms this morning, mainly north northeast.
⛈️ Small storm chance this afternoon and evening, mainly near southwest Indiana.
💨 Damaging winds are the main threat if storms develop.
🔥 Extreme heat continues through the weekend with heat indexes of 105-115°.
🌡️ A brief cooldown is possible Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
.
.
.
🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
August 13th through August 20th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: LOW RISK. A few storms will be possible again today. Mainly over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. A few storms could be strong, but the overall severe risk is minimal. Isolated high winds if storms do form later today.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
.
Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? SCATTERED. Isolated lightning this morning over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
A few more storms are possible later today. Mainly over Illinois and Kentucky. I will monitor next Monday and Tuesday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOCALIZED RISK. Slow-moving storms or storm complexes could produce locally heavy rain totals. Some localized issues could develop. Widespread flash flooding is not anticipated.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Today through Monday. I will monitor next Tuesday through Friday. If we have more clouds, then that will shave a few degrees off the highs.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Today through at least Sunday. Another chance towards the middle/end of next week.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? POSSIBLE. A few reporting stations could hit 110 or slightly higher over the coming days.
.
.
Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
.
Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
.
.
Let’s Look At The Two-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals. Some areas could miss out on the rain, as well. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
These totals are through the weekend.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
.
Thursday
.
Thursday night
.
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
.
.
RRFS Model
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
.
.
We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
.
https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF
Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
