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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
Double-click images to enlarge them.
🥵 Hot and Muggy Weather Continues
A strong area of high pressure will remain in control of our weather through the week. This will keep hot and humid conditions in place.
- 🌡️ High temperatures will remain in the 90s.
- 💧 Dew points will stay in the 70s, making it very humid.
- 🥵 Heat index values could reach near 110 degrees through at least Thursday.
- ⚠️ The heat may continue into the weekend, with heat index values remaining above 100 degrees.
- 🔥 Additional or extended heat alerts may eventually be needed.
A cold front will move toward the area but is now expected to weaken and stall on Friday, providing very little relief from the heat.
⛈️ Storm Chances This Week
A low confidence forecast. There remain significant questions about the placement of thunderstorm complexes over the next few days. Especially on Wednesday.
Model guidance this summer has struggled to forecast these storm tracks. That is not unusual for summer. This summer, however, has been worse than usual.
⚠️ The best advice is to monitor my updates. I will send out some app alerts with updated information. If severe weather threatens, then you will be alerted, as always.
Be sure to see the rain probability graphics further down on this post.
Keep in mind that summer thunderstorm complexes are very difficult to forecast. Monitor updated forecasts.
Even though the heat ridge is getting stronger, several weather disturbances will move around it and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Rain chances begin increasing today, but the timing remains uncertain. Today’s concern is mostly my far northeastern counties. That would be southeast Illinois into northwest Kentucky. Even there, the chances for now are on the low end.
The best chance for storms appears to be Wednesday evening and possibly Thursday evening, with rain chances around 30% to 60% (lower near Poplar Bluff).
Not everyone will see rain. Some areas, especially toward the northeast, could receive heavy rainfall, while areas farther south may miss out completely. See the rainfall outlook below.
⚠️ Strong Storms Possible
A few storms could become strong to severe, especially on Wednesday. See the severe weather outlook further down in this weather post.
The main concern will be:
- 💨 Damaging wind gusts
- 🌧️ Heavy rainfall
- ⚡ Frequent lightning
There is enough heat, humidity, and instability in place to support strong storms. The overall jetstream setup isn’t especially strong, but the very hot and unstable air could make any organized storm capable of producing damaging winds. Monitor updates.
The threat may end up mainly being across portions of southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
🌤️ Late Week and Weekend
A few lingering showers or storms could continue into Friday, but rain chances should decrease afterward.
The weekend currently looks hot, humid, and mostly dry as the strong ridge of high pressure takes control again.
The extended outlook also favors above-average temperatures. The heat may last for a while.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
August 11th through August 18th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: POSSIBLE. Thunderstorms are possible this week. There is a chance that a few of the storms could be strong and/or severe.
Chances are higher as you move towards northern portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky. Lower over southeast Missouri, the Bootheel, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
The primary concern would be a few thunderstorms producing damaging wind gusts.
The risk of a few severe thunderstorms will peak on Wednesday afternoon and evening. A level two risk has been outlined for portions of southern Illinois and western Kentucky. A lower risk everywhere else. See the graphics below.
These types of thunderstorm complexes are difficult to forecast. Thus, monitor updates over the next few days.
Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook for today, tomorrow, and Thursday.
The risk today and Thursday is lower.
The risk on Wednesday will be the one to monitor. The track of the thunderstorm complex will be key to any severe weather.
Light green is where thunderstorms are possible, but likely below severe limits.
Dark green is a level one out of five risk. A low-level risk.
Yellow is a level two out of five risk. A low-level risk, but slightly higher than the level one.
The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts.
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🌪️ Current tornado risk: UNLIKELY. A few storms could be severe on Wednesday. The tornado risk is low. When we have severe thunderstorms, the risk is rarely zero, but it is low.
If something were to spin up, then it would be brief and low-end.
The primary severe weather concern will be damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning, as well.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Isolated chance today and Thursday (mainly my far northeastern counties). Scattered lightning on Wednesday. The risk is higher over Illinois and Kentucky. It is lower over Missouri and Illinois. I will monitor Friday (chances appear low).
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED RISK. Slow-moving storms or storm complexes could produce locally heavy rain totals. Some isolated or localized issues could occur. Widespread flash flooding is not anticipated.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Today through the beginning of next week. Perhaps beyond. If we have more clouds, then that will shave a few degrees off the highs.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Today through at least early next week. Perhaps beyond. If we have more clouds, then that would lower heat index values.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? ISOLATED. A few reporting stations could hit 110 or slightly higher over the coming days. More likely will be the 100 to 108 readings.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
Chances will be higher north northeast. Chances will be lower south southwest.
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
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Let’s Look At The Two-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals. Some areas could miss out on the rain, as well. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
These totals are through the weekend.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Tuesday
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Tuesday night
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Wednesday
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Wednesday night
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Thursday
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Thursday night
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Friday
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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RRFS Model
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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