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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
FROST FORECAST:
Frost update for the orchards/others.
Saturday night there is a 70% chance for frost over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
Saturday night – There is a 40% chance for a freeze over the northern half of southeast Missouri, all of southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.
Winds could be the deciding factor both Saturday and Sunday night as to whether frost occurs. Winds stay up and frost risk decreases.
Sunday night – no frost anticipated.
Monday night – There is a 50% chance for frost area wide.
Tuesday night – Frost is not anticipated
Wednesday night – Not concerned about frost.
Thursday night – Frost is possible.
Saturday Night – Mostly clear and cold. Frost and/or freeze possible. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s. Temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 10-20 mph early. Diminishing to less than 10 mph late. Winds may help our cause when it comes to frost. Winds stay up and frost chances decrease. Also quite a bit of dry air around.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost possible. Freeze possible.
Sunday – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-64 degree range. Locally higher temperatures possible over southeast Missouri.
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday Night – Mostly clear and not as cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46 to 52 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Mostly sunny during the morning. A few clouds possible in the afternoon. A small chance for an afternoon/evening shower.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 65 to 70 degree range. Turning cooler late in the day as a cold front moves through the area.
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 8-16 mph. Winds becoming northwest behind the cold front.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Note to isolated late in the day
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday Night – Mostly clear and cold. Frost and or freeze possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s.
Winds: Light winds from the northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost and/or freeze possible.
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. Colder.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Winds: Light and variable winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday Night – Increasing clouds. Perhaps a shower or thunderstorm after midnight.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle to upper 40s.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated. If the front advances quicker than anticipated then I will have to increase the rain chances a bit.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways if showers do develop.
Wednesday – Becoming cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Increasing chances through the day.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 8-16 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Lightning. Wet roadways.
Wednesday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 40s.
Winds: Winds becoming west and northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some showers possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways if showers do develop.
Thursday – Mix of sun and clouds.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 58-64 degree range. Warmer west vs east in the region. Southeast Missouri should be the warmest.
Winds: Northwest winds at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways if anything at all.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36 to 42 degree range
Winds: Winds becoming west and northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Colder. Clouds. a chance for a shower.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 40s
Winds: Northwest winds at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Cold temperatures on Saturday night and Sunday morning
- Frost possible Monday night/Tuesday morning
- Rain chances increase on Wednesday and Wednesday night
The main weather story will be cold temperatures on Saturday night and Sunday morning. Freeze conditions are possible over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Lows may dip into the upper 20s and lower 30s. The rest of the area can expect low to mid 30s.
If the winds die down tonight then a light frost is possible elsewhere in the region. The air is quite dry and this may also help keep frost conditions marginal. Hopefully the winds stay up a bit. Either way, a light frost is possible tonight across much of the region.
Sunday will be a little bit warmer with highs into the 60s.
Monday night we will dip back into the upper 20s to middle 30s. Another frost or freeze will be possible Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Rain chances increase Tuesday night and especially Wednesday/Wednesday night. A cold front enters our region on Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorm chances will reach the likely category by Wednesday/Wednesday night. Right now the severe weather risk looks minimal. But, as always, monitor updates.
Let’s look at the GFS guidance for our next front. Green is rain.
This first graphic is for Wednesday morning at 7 am. Low pressure over northern Illinois. Tight pressure gradient might mean some gusty winds. Showers and storms along the front trailing back into Missouri.
This next graphic is for Wednesday around 1 pm in the afternoon.
This next graphic is for Wednesday evening. Showers/storms should end (for the most part) Wednesday night.
Another cold snap Thursday night could produce frost or freeze conditions once again. And, that may not be our last chance for frost and freeze conditions.
Here is the low temperature animation map for Saturday night/Sunday morning. Give or take a degree or two. Cold favored locations can always be colder.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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No thunderstorms expected through Tuesday.
Level ONE threat for storms on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Lightning would be the main concern.
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Updated wind speeds and temperatures.
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Frost and freeze possible Saturday night.
Frost update for the orchards/others.
Saturday night there is a 70% chance for frost over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
Saturday night – There is a 40% chance for a freeze over the northern half of southeast Missouri, all of southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.
Winds could be the deciding factor both Saturday and Sunday night as to whether frost occurs. Winds stay up and frost risk decreases.
Sunday night – no frost anticipated.
Monday night – There is a 50% chance for frost area wide.
Tuesday night – Frost is not anticipated
Wednesday night – Not concerned about frost.
Thursday night – Frost is possible.
Frost and freeze conditions on Sunday morning. See advisories for details.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Dry weather anticipated through Sunday.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
