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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Sunday – Quite a few clouds today. Cooler with highs in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. North/northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunday night – Clearing and cold. Lows in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s. Light winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Monday – Partly sunny. Cool. Highs in the 60’s. Northeast winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Monday night – Mostly clear and cold. Lows in the upper 30’s and 40’s. East winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Tuesday – Partly sunny sky conditions…increasing clouds in the afternoon. Highs in the 60’s. Southeast winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Calm weather after yesterday’s severe thunderstorms.
2. Cooler today into the new work week
Severe thunderstorms moved across portions of our area on Saturday. Many areas enjoyed a lot of sunshine and warm temperatures. That was the forecast…sun for some and storms for others. I always remind people that the sun is not really your friend on a stormy day. The more sun usually means temperatures will rise. Temperatures rise and you have more energy for storm cells.
Some tornado or microburst activity was reported in western Kentucky with at least one injury at a mobile home that was damaged or destroyed in Corydon, Kentucky. Henderson County had 10 structures (3 homes and barns, sheds, etc) destroyed, as well as numerous Trees uprooted and lines downs all over the area. There was an area on Hwy 266 where 8 power poles have been lain over along the road.
Corydon, Kentucky story
Click here
There may have been some tornadoes or straight line winds/microbursts in southern Illinois, as well. The NWS is going to look into several reports of damage in Franklin County, IL. There were some impressive radar signatures from time to time in that area.
Large hail fell over a swatch from southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky and then eastward. Very large hail fell over portions of central and eastern Kentucky. Several reports of baseball size hail and tennis ball size hail.
CAPE values were not nearly as high in our local counties as were forecast. Forecast numbers showed 2000-3500 CAPE values. We ended up with 1000 to 1500 CAPE. That meant the storms were not nearly as severe as they could have been. Some of the storm reports can be viewed here. Yellow are wind damage reports. Three blue dot circles are hail.
Corydon, Kentucky photos from Twitter
This is a radar screen grab of the storm that produced the tornado or microburst a bit after this image was taken. You can see the notch (inflow notch) on the cell. That is a sign of a severe thunderstorm.
Anyway, the good news is that today will bring calm. No severe weather concerns today. Even better news is that I don’t think we will have any severe weather concerns right on through Friday. That is quite amazing considering what time of the year it is.
Cooler weather will also be the overall trend this week. I know you would like for me to tell you that 80 degree weather is heading out way. But, not just yet. My thinking has been the second week of May or so…onward. Spring would finally settle into the region.
I have been watching a fairly large storm system for Monday and Tuesday out over the central and southwestern United States. At one time it appeared this could cause mischief in our region. But, over the last few days the data continued to trend further and further south with the parent area of low pressure. If that happens then the bulk of the rain will stay south.
There is a little disturbance on Tuesday/Wednesday that could bring a few showers into the area. This is not forecast to be a big event or anything like that. Some light rain showers possible. Probabilities are low. Less than 20%. More good news 🙂 – let’s hope the forecast holds. Farmers need a break.
Here is the storm I had been watching to our west/southwest on Monday and Tuesday.
This is the GFS map from wright-weather.com You can see the area of low pressure over southeast Colorado. This low will push southeast over the coming days. The purple and blue colors represent precipitation.
Here is that light precipitation on Tuesday. Again, light being the operative word. Many areas should remain dry. I will monitor and update, as always.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card in the forecast will be rain chances this week. Several disturbances will pass near our region. The overall thinking is that they will miss us. We need some dry down time…let’s hope that is the care.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO. Thunderstorms are not anticipated today.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No significant rain through Thursday. A small chance for a light shower on Tuesday/Wednesday. Probability appears low.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Calm weather the rest of the week? That is the way it is shaping up. Amazing for this time of the year. Calm weather will also mean below normal temperatures.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
