Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

10 AM Update

No changes to my forecast.  Severe thunderstorms appear likely on Saturday.  Here is my latest AWARE email.  This was sent out earlier this morning.

Friday, April 24,  2015:

You may receive two emails today as I test out a new email server.  Please ignore and delete the second email (or if you receive a test email).

I will have continuous coverage of this event on my Facebook weather page.  This is the best way for me to communicate with you and answer questions (in real time).
http://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather

A severe weather event is possible on Saturday.  Please pay attention to updated information over the next 36 hours.  Some high end severe weather is possible in a few locations.

Note, thunderstorms are likely later today into tonight (Friday).  This is not the main period of concern.  The event is not over once tonight’s precipitation ends early Saturday morning.

This forecast covers parts of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

This forecast expires on Saturday at 9 pm (also, a new email will be issued tomorrow morning)

My confidence in the verification of this forecast: 

High confidence that a few storms will produce large hail and 70+ mph winds.
Medium confidence that a tornado will occur somewhere in our area.

Uncertainties: There remain some questions as to the exact placement of the greatest threat on Saturday.  There will also be a cap in the atmosphere.  A cap can keep thunderstorms from forming as expected.  A cap can also enhance the severe weather threat because it allows the atmosphere to become more unstable as the day wears on.  Occasionally, however, the cap will keep storms from forming.  This is one of the unknowns with this event.  No two severe weather events are alike.  They are tricky, at best, to forecast accurately 24-36 hours in advance.  Thus, monitor updated information.

Time frame of most concern:  The greatest period of concern, for a few severe thunderstorms, will be from 11 am on Saturday morning through 7 pm on Saturday evening.  Give or take an hour or two.

Do not be fooled by sunshine on Saturday morning or afternoon.  The sun will only serve to make the atmosphere more unstable as temperatures rise into the 70’s over parts of the area (south and west of the warm front).

Note, thunderstorms are likely later today into tonight (Friday).  This is not the main period of concern.

Forecast concerns:  Supercell thunderstorms are forecast to form over eastern Missouri and southern Illinois by late morning and early afternoon.  The storms are forecast to move east/southeast at 40-50 mph.  The storms will eventually spread into southern Indiana and western Kentucky/Tennessee.

A tornado watch will likely be issued for portions of the area on Saturday.  Multiple warnings are possible if everything comes together as currently forecast.  Keep in mind, we are still 24-30 hours from the event occurring.

Potential impacts:

• Quarter size hail or larger?  Yes.  Large hail is likely in a few spots.
• Damaging winds?  Several reports of damaging wind may occur.
• Tornado threat?  Tornadoes are possible if this event unfolds as expected.
• Lightning concerns?  Frequent cloud to ground lightning.
• Locally heavy downpours are likely.

Timing:  It appears that the severe weather will start to develop between 10 am and 2 pm over eastern Missouri and southern Illinois.  New thunderstorms could form over southern Indiana and Kentucky between 12 pm and 3 pm.  There is some room for error on the timing.

I remind you that there will be showers and thunderstorms in our region on Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning.  This is not the main time frame of concern.  This activity will push east/northeast on Saturday morning.  We should see clearing sky conditions behind this area of precipitation.  That will serve to make the atmosphere more unstable.

Call to action:  Monitor the latest weather information from your trusted weather sources.  Have a NOAA Weather Radio available in the event severe weather does develop.

Other:  Precipitation should exit my forecast by Saturday evening or late evening (that would include southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee).

If you do not have Facebook, then I have the new Weather Talk blog.  I will post updated maps on the blog from time to time.   The blog can be viewed here – click here

For frequent updates please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site and the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page for current forecast threads.

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Storm Tracking Tools:

1. Storm tracking links  click here
2. Radars to track storms – click here
3. Latest watches/warnings – click here
4. Storm Prediction Center Official Severe Weather Outlooks – click here
5. Weather Observatory Main web-site – click here
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Find your local National Weather Service Office here – http://www.nws.noaa.gov/organization.php#maps – for the latest warnings and other information.

Please report all severe weather/flooding to the NWS or local law enforcement.  Ask local law enforcement to relay your reports to the National Weather Service.  It is very important that you send in your reports – do not assume someone else sent in a severe weather report.

For quick and more frequent updates you can follow me on Facebook (you may also ask questions on the Facebook page) – hit LIKE at the top to follow along.  I normally have 2-4 hour threads during severe weather conditions.  Please ask questions within those threads.
http://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather

We have numerous interactive radars running during weather events – see the local city radars for the interactive features
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

I also have city interactive radars – you can zoom down to your local area – I have added the Memphis/Nashville area and central/eastern Kentucky
http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/interactive/

– Beau Dodson
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management
Meteorological Adviser Transportation Cabinet
 

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.

Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region.  These are the averages.

SATURDAY IS A WEATHER AWARE DAY. 

That means we pay a bit more attention to what is happening.  The sun is not your friend on Saturday.  If the sun comes out and we heat up then severe thunderstorm chances will increase.

Friday –  Some sun during the morning.  Increasing clouds through the day.  Showers and thunderstorms developing from southwest to northeast late in the day and into the evening hours.  Highs will be in the 60’s.  East/southeast winds at 10 mph in the morning becoming 10-15 mph in the afternoon.  Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

Morning School Bus Stop Weather –  A mix of sun and clouds.  Cool.  Temperatures mainly in the 40’s at the bus stop.  Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Some clouds.  A chance for a shower.  Breezy at times.  Temperatures in the lower 60’s with southeast winds at 10-15 mph.  Gusty at times.

Friday night –  Cloudy.  Thunderstorms.  A few storms could be heavy.  A few storms after midnight could even produce hail and strong winds.  Frequent lightning.  Lows will be in the 50’s but rising late at night as the warm front passes through the area.  Winds from the southeast but becoming southwest behind the warm front.  The warm front will move from southwest to northeast across the area.  Winds of 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

Saturday –  A Weather AWARE Day – monitor updates.  Morning showers and storms ending.  Becoming sunny.  Some of you will have a GREAT day with sunshine and warm temperatures.  Some of you will have to deal with afternoon storms.  Severe thunderstorms possible over some of our counties on Saturday afternoon.  Closely monitor updated forecasts.  Highs in the 70’s to near 80 degrees south of the warm front Southeast winds at 10-20 mph.  Gusty.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

Saturday night – Clearing.  Cooler.  Lows in the 40’s.  Northwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Should not be any issues on Saturday night.

Sunday –  Mostly sunny.  A little on the cool side, but not too bad.  Highs in the 60’s. 
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No concerns.

 

Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here

 

The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by TransAmerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here

Current Temperatures Around The Local Area

Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

 

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Shower and thunderstorm chances increase later today and tonight
2.  Severe thunderstorms possible on Saturday for parts of our region
3.  Very warm on Saturday with highs near 80 in some counties
4.  Cooler by Sunday
5.  Dry most of next week?  Mixed signals on the data.

We have a lot to talk about.  Let’s cover the most important information and focus on that.

BOTTOM LINE…

The time frame of greatest severe weather concern will likely be Saturday afternoon from 12 pm through 6 pm.  The greatest area of concern could end up being over parts of southern Illinois, southern Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee.  How far west is questionable.

Closely monitor updated forecasts…

Friday morning…

Mostly dry weather conditions.  Increasing clouds from the southwest as moisture streams back into the area as a large system takes shape to our southwest.

 

Friday afternoon…

Showers and thunderstorms will break out on radar over Missouri and Arkansas on Friday afternoon.  These storms will spread northeast over the afternoon and evening hours.  They will first spread into southeast Missouri and northern Arkansas.  Right now it appears the severe weather risk is limited on Friday afternoon and evening.  Bigger concerns well west/southwest of our area on Friday.  Temperatures will be a bit on the cool side ahead of our warm front on Friday.

If you have outdoor plans on Friday morning then you should be okay.  Concerns go up with each passing hour in the mid to late afternoon.  If you have outdoor plans late in the day and evening then I would suggest you monitor radars.

Let’s check out some future-cast radar images from weatherbell.com

This is the future-cast radar (what radar might look like) image for around 1pm.  Showers and storms mostly back in Missouri and Arkansas.  These will spread northeast.

Some of the data holds precipitation back a few more hours.  Keep this in mind.  There is some uncertainty on the exact time precipitation moves into southern IL and western KY.  My advice is that if you have late afternoon and evening plans then have a plan B.

Moving forward to the 2-3 pm time frame (image below).  Showers and storms slowly but surely spreading northeast.  We do have some dry air over the region early in the day.  Some of the precipitation you see over southern Illinois is likely not reaching the ground.  The precip back in Missouri and Arkansas is reaching the ground.

Then we move ahead to the 4-5 pm time frame

Again, don’t take this as what will actually happen.  Use it as a guide to the general idea that showers and thunderstorms will be developing over Missouri and Arkansas and then spreading northeast into the rest of the region.

That squall line down in Oklahoma and Texas could produce some severe weather.

 

Friday evening and night…

Widespread showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain and lightning will be the main concern.  There is a small risk for some wind or hail reports in our region Friday night.  Thinking right now is that would be over parts of southern Missouri and Arkansas.  Mostly west of our area, but this will deserve to be monitored as we move forward.

Here is the future-cast radar for around 5 pm to 8 pm.  Quite a bit of shower activity in our area.  Maybe some thunderstorms, as well.  The color scheme on these maps are usually a bit overdone…don’t worry about the red colors.  Not expecting these to be severe or anything.

Later in the night some new cells form along a warm front.  These are cells that could produce some hail and gusty winds.  We will need to watch them…mainly for hail.  These cells will move northeast out of Missouri and Arkansas, as well.

10 pm radar.  See the cells from southern Missouri into Kentucky and Tennessee?  Those are along a warm front.  Some new ones may form down in northeast Arkansas, as well (a bit later in the night).

Here are the cells that form after 1 am.  See them coming out of Arkansas?  Maybe some hailers.

 

Then look what happens on Saturday morning.  The colors represent clouds and cloud top temperatures.  Bright colors and the red tops are thunderstorms.  See all the black over our region?  Sunshine.

This is the future-cast satellite view.  The black area would be clear sky conditions.  Sunshine.  Anyone who follows my weather forecast will remember that sunshine is not your friend on a severe weather day.  The sun will only help to increase the CAPE numbers.

What are CAPE values and what do they mean in relation to severe weather?  I found a great post about CAPE values and this should explain it.  For you go-getter weather enthusiasts – click here

 

We look later into the afternoon.  According to the WRF model we will see thunderstorms form southeast of St Louis, Missouri and then line out and sweep quickly southeast through parts of southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Kentucky.  But, how far west will they be placed?  That is a big question still on the table.  This is around 2 pm to 4 pm.  The exact time storms initiate and where they initiate remains a question.

 

This is a bit of an odd system.  The area of low pressure will move out of Kansas and move east into northern Missouri.  Once it is over northern Missouri it will eventually start to move due southeast.   This is not a normal track for a storm system.  The wind fields will likely be weakening as it moves southeast.  The upper level winds are strong.  The lower level wind fields are not as strong.

Soundings from Paducah, Kentucky indicate a VERY unstable air mass.  Lift index numbers below -8 and CAPE values above 3000.  EHI numbers have been in the -3 to -5 range on the models.  That is concerning.  All of those numbers indicate that severe weather would be possible if storms form.  That is the question…if storms form.  The better question is probably “where” storms form.  They will form.  Just how far northeast and east will that be.

I am more confident about severe weather over our eastern counties vs western counties.  I drew this box on some maps to show you where I am thinking the greatest risk (in our region, at least) would be

Keep in mind there are a lot of fine details that go into forecasting severe weather.  Nothing is ever clear cut and often times it comes down to meso-scale forecasting the day of an event.

Somewhere in this red box could be where the Saturday afternoon storms form and then move southeast.  Subject to change.  Monitor updates.

PWAT values pool in this region, as well

What are PWAT values?  Great question!  I found this blog post that explains it quite well.  Click here for more information on PWAT values.

On this VV map from the NAM model you can see the idea of a line of storms with the colors over southeast Illinois, southern Indiana, and northwest Kentucky.  These storms would be moving southeast.  That would be the red colors from near Metropolis up towards Evansville and northeast from there.  The model is hinting at a line of storms forming.  Again, this is one models idea.  The exact placement is FAR from set in stone.  Check back for updates on here and on the Facebook page.

 

Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

 

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

 

Don’t forget to support our sponsors!

 

Obvious concerns will be thunderstorms on Friday night and then again on Saturday.  Biggest severe weather concerns will be Saturday afternoon.  Monitor updates as we move forward.

Yes.  Monitoring updates on incoming weather will be the action.

 

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Check out their Facebook page for specials, as well DQ Grill and Chill on Facebook

 

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Visit their web-site here.  Or click the ad below!  Facebook page.

 

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Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

 

 

Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here.  Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

 

 

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level is THREE on Friday night/wee early morning hours of Saturday.  Saturday the threat level is going to be FOUR.  This is likely to be especially true over the eastern and northeastern half of the region.  Closely monitor updates.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook –  Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Monday Severe Weather Outlook –  Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook –  Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated

 

 

 

 

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Rainfall totals will vary because of locally heavy thunderstorms.  Keep that in mind.  I feel like I always have to say that this time of the year.  But, that is typically the case.  One county ends up with 1-2″ of rain and a neighboring county ends up with half that amount.

This is the official WPC rainfall forecast.  I feel that parts of this are a bit underplayed over southeast Missouri and far west Kentucky and Tennessee.  Some much heavier totals are possible in spots.

 

This section of the blog is speculative forecast information.  Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation.  Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.

Most of my time has been spent in preparing for the Friday into Saturday storms.

We may end up mostly dry next week.  The latest data takes everything further and further south.  If this ends up being the case then perhaps we FINALLY have a dry spell.  Say it isn’t so!

 

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

 

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

 

For the most up to date maps – click here

 

 

Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky.  They have a lot of maps and information on their site.  Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.

 

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.  Just need to finish two Spanish classes!

I am a member of the American Meteorological Society.  I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.  And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog

 

Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.

 

WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions

 

WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras

 

Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view

 

 

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.