9 AM Update
As I suspected…the local NWS office and the Storm Prediction Center has now outlined our area for at least a risk of some severe storms on Saturday. A lot of questions remain on where storms will fire up Saturday afternoon. There might be a lot of sun and warm temperatures over our region on Saturday. Of course that means heating and higher CAPE ((energy values).
Where storms fire up will be key to what happens locally. Will storms fire further northeast and east? Thus, missing most of our area? Or, will they fire directly over our area and bring some severe weather? Those kind of questions remain.
Here is the latest outline area from the Storm Prediction Center for Saturday’s event.
Look at this future-cast satellite image for Saturday. The black area represents clear sky conditions. Saturday could be a very nice day for parts of our region. Sun and warm temperatures. This is around 12 pm to 2 pm.
All of that sun leaves many questions on placement of the Saturday severe storm threat.
Monitor updates
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Thursday – Some morning frost possible. A mix of sun and clouds. A 10%-20% chance for a light shower (esp over southeast Missouri down into western Tennessee). Cooler than normal temperatures. Highs mainly in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Some clouds and quite cool. Temperatures in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s over the area (cooler northern and northeastern counties). Light winds.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly sunny and cool. Temperatures will be in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s over much of the area with light northwest winds.
Thursday night – A few clouds. Cool temperatures. Lows in the 40’s. Light winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans.
The forecast for Friday and Saturday is highly dependent on the track of the area of low pressure that is forecast to push into our region from the west. Monitor updates. The track of the low is key to whether severe storms will be possible on Saturday.
Friday – Increasing cloudiness. A chance for an showers and thunderstorms (a 30% to 40% chance before noon and a 60% chance as we move towards evening). Warmer. High temperatures in the 60’s. Winds becoming east/southeast at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. I would monitor updates and radars. Some precipitation is possible. Timing is tricky on Friday. We may see two time periods when chances for precipitation will be greater. One of those in the morning then more towards evening.
Friday night – Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. 90% chance. Milder. Low temperatures will be in the 50’s. Winds from the south/southeast at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Looks like rain is a good bet. Monitor updates for the time frame as new data arrives. Campers should plan on rain and some thunder.
Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Monitor updates closely. If the low tracks to our north then some severe storms will be possible. Highs in the 60’s and 70’s if the low tracks to our north. If the low tracks to our north then winds will be from the south at 10-20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Right now I am thinking Saturday night (late) and Sunday will be mostly dry.
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
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There is a small chance for a shower over southeast Missouri into western Tennessee. Generally the area will be dry.
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Coolish temperatures today. Well below normal.
2. Rain chances increase Friday into Saturday. Some thunder likely.
3. Closely monitor the threat for severe storms on Saturday. Track of the low is key to severe weather concerns.
4. Sunday should be dry and cooler.
5. Some uncertainties on the Monday and Tuesday forecast.
NOTE: As we move forward I will do my best to work on the timing for precipitation chances on both Friday and Saturday. I know many of you have outdoor plans. Better have a plan B for Friday and Saturday. Monitor for severe weather potential, as well.
Well, it does not feel much like late April. Another round of cool temperatures blankets the area. We will be well below normal in the temperature department today. Some of you woke up to frost! Imagine that. Well, we can imagine that. This spring has been slow to start. But, that was the forecast.
Here are the departures for high temperatures on Thursday. This map shows you how many degrees we are below normal.
High pressure will dominate the weather today. That will keep us mostly on the dry side today. The data spits out a 10% to perhaps 20% chance for a shower. Mainly this would be over our western counties down into western Tennessee.
You can see that high pressure center (BIG H) on the weather map for Thursday. Remember that high pressure typically mean sinking air. It usually means cool weather (when it comes in from the north and northwest). System stalled well to our south will keep storm chances mostly away from our area. There is a hint of precipitation in southern Missouri, northeast Arkansas and parts of west Tennessee. Better chances south.
Highs today will be mostly in the upper 50’s into the middle 60’s over the region. Coolest north and northeast counties vs south and southwest counties. Friday will be a tad bit warmer as a new storm system approaches our region.
Highs for today (Thursday)
Friday high temperatures. Warmer.
All eyes then turn to Friday into Saturday as a large storm system will move towards our region from the Central United States…
Big debate on the forecast for Friday into Saturday. Forecasters are not confident as to where an area of low pressure will track. The track of that low is key to our forecast. Let’s try and break it down a bit more for you.
Follow your trusted sources for weather information as we move forward.
Friday morning we will need to monitor the warm front as it starts to push north and northeast into our region. Normally you will see showers and some thunderstorms along the warm front. Placement of this feature will be important for rain chances on Friday morning. Right now it does appear at least a chance for precipitation as early as Friday morning (and perhaps likely). I am hoping to pin this down a bit more later today.
Friday afternoon…shower and thunderstorm chances continue. Timing is still questionable. I do believe that Friday night will bring near 100% chances for rain and storms across our region. If you are camping on Friday night then expect some raindrops and perhaps even some thunder. Severe weather risk appears minimal for Friday afternoon and night.
Currently the Storm Prediction Center has us outlined parts of our region for a small risk of severe thunderstorms on Friday evening and night. The greater threat would be to our west. I will monitor this. I think our chances for severe thunderstorms will be rather limited on Friday.
This is the official severe weather outlook from the SPC (for Friday and Friday night). Track of the area of low pressure is going to be important for any severe weather concerns on Friday and Saturday.
You can see on this graphic that parts of our area are in the marginal risk zone. Again, the risk appears small on Friday/Friday night for severe weather. But, monitor updates. Rain does appear almost certain on Friday evening into Saturday. Keep that in mind if you are camping.
The red area is the greatest risk zone for severe storms on Friday.
Quick glance at future-cast radar for Friday. Morning storms and showers. This is the 7 am future-cast radar shot.
Then later in the morning. This is around noon.
Saturday
I am more concerned about Saturday. Some big severe weather numbers are being shown by the models. The question, however, is where does the area of low pressure track. If severe weather were to be a concern then the low will need to track just to our northwest and north. There is a debate right now among meteorologists as to where the low will track. But, I am forecasting the potential for severe storms on Saturday.
If the low tracks to our south then the severe weather risk greatly diminishes. I would encourage everyone to closely monitor the most up to date weather information as we move forward. Officially the Storm Prediction Center has not outlined our region for severe storms on Saturday. However, that could change today with new updates. I will mention it if they do update and add our region.
My current forecast is for some severe storm concerns in or near our region on Saturday. I will try to post an update at the top of the page on Thursday late morning or afternoon.
This severe weather event has been signaled for several days on the charts. The data keeps coming more and more together with each passing day. The models are trending towards similar solutions. This is adding to the confidence level that some severe storms will be possible in and near our region. I thought about posting a bunch of the parameter maps, but since it is still 48-72 hours out…I decided that was not necessary.
What is important to know is that we may have severe weather on Saturday. Let’s pay a little more attention if you have outdoor plans.
Let’s look at some of the data. Different models.
This is the NAM and it tracks the low over our region
This is the GFS model. It tracks the low over the St Louis, Missouri area.
This is the Canadian model and it also has the low north of us.
Lot of questions remain. Stay tuned.
Radars if you need them
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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No major changes to the ongoing forecast. Cool weather today.
Other than patchy frost over southern Illinois on Thursday morning, no major concerns through Friday morning.
Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase Friday afternoon into Saturday.
I am concerned about severe thunderstorms on Saturday. The track of the area of low pressure will be key as to whether severe weather will occur. Closely monitor updated forecasts.
Yes. Monitor updates forecasts for the weekend.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – timing of precipitation for Friday afternoon and night is the wild card in the forecast. Currently appears the best chance for rain and storms would be Friday night and Saturday. Friday afternoon is the question mark.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO for Thursday and ONE for Friday afternoon and night. The ONE for Friday might need to be upgraded over parts of Missouri. I will monitor the data.
MONITOR updates for Saturday.
.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Rumbles of thunder possible, but severe weather is not anticipated. Monitor updates.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates. Severe storms will be possible if the low tracks for our north.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rain chances increase once again on Friday afternoon into Saturday. If the low tracks to our north then thunderstorms will be possible. That would mean increased rainfall totals for some of our counties. If the low tracks to our south then we will still have quite a bit of precipitation to deal with.
Confidence is lower than normal on rainfall totals for Friday and Saturday. Sunday should be dry.
Right now, I am thinking widespread 0.40″-0.80″ with pockets of greater than 1″. I would like to see more consistency in the data before banking on higher totals. As always, thunderstorms can cause locally heavy rainfall totals.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Some mixed signals on the long range. The track of an area of low pressure on Monday and Tuesday will determine whether rain and/or thunderstorms will once again be in the forecast.
Models are not handling the current pattern very well. They have been all over the place with the track of storm systems in the long range. They have shown wild fluctuations in storm tracks.
At one time the models were showing an area of low pressure moving across Missouri on Monday and Tuesday. Then over the last 24 hours the data has been showing the storm tracking into southern Arkansas and Louisiana. Needless to say these are huge differences.
I will monitor the new data before making a decision as to where I believe the system will track. I would like to see some consistency in the data.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
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I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
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Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
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Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
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I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
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