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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Wednesday Night – A good chance for showers. A thunderstorm possible. Locally heavy rain possible where training occurs.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: Winds south at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80$-90%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Locally heavy rainfall totals.
Thursday – Mostly cloudy. Becoming partly sunny behind the main band of rain. A few showers and thunderstorms possible later today (once the main band moves east).
Temperatures: High temperatures 72-74 degrees.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10 mph. Gusts to 20 mph. Winds may switch more W/SW in the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% western counties. 50%-70% eastern counties.
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous to perhaps widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe some lightning.
Thursday Night – Cloudy. Showers coming to an end.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before midnight. 30% after midnight.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Friday – A mix of sun and clouds. Mild. A few light showers possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures 70-75 degrees.
Winds: North winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% of a light shower
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some a light shower is possible
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Cool for campers.
Temperatures: Lows from 46 to 52 degrees
Winds: North and Northwest at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Nice. Pleasant. Spring.
Temperatures: High temperatures middle 70s
Winds: North and northeast winds at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Nice. Pleasant for campers.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds east and northeast at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Nice. Warm. Spring weather. Great day.
Temperatures: High temperatures upper 70s to lower 80s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Nice. Pleasant for campers.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds south at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures upper 70s to lower 80s
Winds: South winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Lightning possible.
Heavy storms are possible next week. Monitor updates.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Showers and some thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday evening
- Light showers possible Thursday night and Friday
- Beautiful weekend is anticipated
- Unsettled weather next week
- Heavy rain potential next week. Strong storms?
We have two weather stories to follow. The first story will be a cold front moving through the region on Thursday and Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms will occur along and behind this front. Widespread rain will likely occur on Wednesday night into at least Thursday morning. We should dry out from west to east on Thursday afternoon. Thus, the best chance for rain on Thursday will be the eastern one half of the region (east of the Mississippi River).
Rainfall totals of 0.60″-1.20″ for the entire event (including what fell on Tuesday). Pockets of greater than two inches of rain possible. Thunderstorms can always produce heavier totals.
An upper level low will produce some clouds and light showers into Friday. If rain occurs on Friday it would be spotty, at best. A mix of sun and clouds will be the forecast.
A beautiful weekend is anticipated. Temperatures into the 70s with plenty of sunshine.
More concerning are the signals for thunderstorms next week into the following week. A lot of the guidance indicates at least some heavy downpours could be a concern over portions of the Missouri, Ohio, and Mississippi Valleys. Strong storms will also be a concern, as well. At least a couple of rounds.
Maya Express next week? Charts are showing something akin to it. Long duration of high PWAT values. We may have to deal with several rounds of storms next week into the following week. Hopefully not stalls out. If something were to stall out then it would have plenty of moisture to work with. As it stands it appears that a series of low pressure centers will push through the Central United States next week and the week after.
As it stands we will at least have a couple of rounds of showers and possibly heavy thunderstorms next week into next weekend. And, perhaps into the following week. Charts show a few systems moving through the moist Gulf of Mexico flow. As long as they keep moving it should prevent extreme rainfall totals in our region.
Long periods of high PWAT values showing up on the GFS model guidance. That is a signal for some heavy rain.
The bottom line, for next week into the following week, is that some locally heavy showers and thunderstorms could occur in and near our region. And, perhaps some strong storms, as well.
What is the Maya Express? Read more about it – here
Monday afternoon
Tuesday night
Wednesday afternoon
Thursday – Friday
For now, let’s look forward to a great weekend.
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed. It is possible that if you were not charged in February or March that you will see three charges this month. February, March, and April. I apologize for the issues.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Widespread severe weather is not anticipated through this week.
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Wednesday night: Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the only concern. Heavy downpours possible.
Friday – Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday – Thursday of next week you should monitor updates. Some stronger storms possible. Heavy rain possible.
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Increased rainfall totals for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Locally heavy rain now appears likely.
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I don’t have any major concerns. Lightning will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday evening. Severe weather is not anticipated.
I am monitoring next week for heavier storms. Stay tuned.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Widespread rain Wednesday into Thursday. Rainfall totals of 0.60″-1.20″. Heavier totals likely where training occurs. Pockets of more than two inches possible.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
