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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Thursday Night – Cloudy. Showers coming to an end.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before midnight. 30% after midnight.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Friday – A mix of sun and clouds. Mild. A few light showers possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures 70-75 degrees.
Winds: North winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% of a light shower
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some a light shower is possible
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Cool for campers.
Temperatures: Lows from 46 to 52 degrees
Winds: North and Northwest at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Nice. Pleasant. Spring.
Temperatures: High temperatures middle 70s
Winds: North and northeast winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Nice. Pleasant for campers.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds east at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Nice. Warm. Spring weather. Great day.
Temperatures: High temperatures upper 70s to lower 80s
Winds: Southwest winds at 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday Night – Increasing clouds late. A 20% chance of a thunderstorms after 2 am.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Lightning possible late at night. Wet roadways.
Monday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures upper 70s to lower 80s
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Lightning possible.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A 20% for a shower or thunderstorm
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-62 degree range
Winds: Winds South at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways. Lightning.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A 30% for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: High temperatures
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor trends
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning
Tuesday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A 20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor trends
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. A 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures lower to middle 80s (if clouds are thicker then temperatures will remain in the 70s)
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Gusty
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Storms are possible
Is severe weather expected? Possibly
What impact is expected? Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty winds. Strong storms. Wet roadways.
Wednesday Night – Partly Cloudy. A 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60s
Winds: Winds south at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Possibly
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Strong storms.
Thursday – Partly sunny. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 70s
Winds: South at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Monitor updates
Heavy storms are possible next week. Monitor updates.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Showers come to an end tonight
- Weak disturbance may bring a few clouds and light showers to parts of the area on Friday
- BEAUTIFUL weekend ahead of us! Enjoy it.
- Unsettled next week. Stormy? Warm/humid.
We had quite a bit of rain over parts of the region Wednesday into Thursday. The system stalled twice. This caused training to occur from southeast Missouri into parts of southern Illinois. Then the system stalled again over parts of western Tennessee into the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Rainfall in these areas ranged from 0.75″-2.50″. Other areas picked up 0.25″-0.80″. Wide range of totals.
Here is the upper level low on Thursday evening. The low is rotating counter-clockwise. Visible satellite. Radar.
Click for a large view.
A weak weather system will skirt our region on Friday. Mostly our northeastern counties. Some clouds and even a light shower will be possible as the system moves east and southeast. Most of the area will experience sun and dry conditions on Friday.
A beautiful weekend is in store for the region. Highs into the 70s and plenty of sun. A bit of wind on Sunday. Keep that in mind.
The weather becomes unsettled next week. Warm and humid each day from Monday into Friday. A daily chance of showers and heavy thunderstorms. We are going to be monitoring for the risk of severe weather, as well. Right now I am watching Wednesday and Thursday. But, there could be several time periods when heavy storms could occur. Let’s monitor next week.
High temperatures next week may rise into the lower and middle 80s. Part of this will depend on cloud cover. But, the charts do look warm.
Let’s look at CAPE for next week. CAPE is energy in the atmosphere that thunderstorms can tap into. The higher the CAPE numbers the more intense storms usually are. I suspect damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will occur next week from Nebraska into Texas. We will need to monitor for some heavy storms in our region, as well. Details from day to day are a bit murky. But, the pattern does favor some thunderstorms.
What are CAPE values and what do they mean in relation to severe weather? I found a great post about CAPE values and this should explain it. For you go-getter weather enthusiasts – click here
Here are the CAPE numbers for Monday. This is the first time this year we will have an unstable atmosphere for multiple days in a row.
Tuesday CAPE
Wednesday CAPE
Thursday CAPE
Friday CAPE
Saturday CAPE
We will need to monitor the track of each area of low pressure next week. This will be one ingredient for storms.
Here is the latest graphic for the weekend. I did increase wind speeds on Sunday. Could be gusty winds. Next week looks to be windy, as well.
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed. It is possible that if you were not charged in February or March that you will see three charges this month. February, March, and April. I apologize for the issues.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Widespread severe weather is not anticipated through this week.
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Friday – Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday – Some thunderstorms are possible.
Tuesday – Friday of next week you should monitor updates. Some stronger storms possible. Heavy rain possible.
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Increased wind speeds for Sunday. Went ahead and extended the forecast through next week. Stormy weather possible from time to time.
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No major concerns through Sunday. Perhaps some gusty winds Sunday.
I am closely monitoring next weeks weather. We may have several periods of showers and thunderstorms. The atmosphere will be more unstable next week. Thus, some strong storms can’t be ruled out from time to time. Let’s keep an eye on it.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Small rain chances on Friday for our northeast counties. That would include parts of southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky. If rain does occur it would be light.
An increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms early next week. This may last most of next week. On and off storm chances. Locally heavy rain possible.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
