Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

April 17, 2024: Monitoring thunderstorm chances today and Thursday. Some could be severe. Monitor updates.

 

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES.    Lightning is possible today over mainly portions of western Kentucky.  The farther east you travel, the higher the potential for lightning.

Lightning is likely Thursday and Thursday night.

I will monitor Friday into Saturday over mainly the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border southward.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  YES.  A few of today’s storms could be intense over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.  Overall, the risk appears low, but not zero.  If the front speeds up, then the threat will end.

Severe thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon and night along a strong cold front moving in from the west northwest.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK.   Thunderstorms are likely this week.  If training thunderstorms were to occur, then some excessive rainfall would be possible.  Overall, the risk of flash flooding is low.  Monitor updates.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  MONITOR.    Strong and gusty winds will be with us today into Friday.   For now, I don’t have a 12-hour time-period where 40 mph winds are likely.  Gusts above 30 mph are likely.  I will monitor this portion of the forecast.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  NO.

7.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  NO.

8.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.  
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines  Freezing fog possible, as well.

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Fire weather risk level.

Wednesday through Wednesday  night: 5. Medium risk.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Thursday night: 3. Very low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Today will be mainly dry, warm, and breezy. The combination of strong gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels will make for elevated fire potential across portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois this afternoon. The passage of a strong cold front brings our next chance of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, when strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. Mainly dry and cooler conditions are expected by Friday and the weekend. Good transport within a deep mixed layer will promote very good to excellent dispersion today and Thursday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

 

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.



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Wednesday Forecast:  Partly sunny. Warm. A few thunderstorms may form over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky this morning ahead of the cold front.  Otherwise, a dry day.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:  After any remaining morning showers end, then a chance in the mid to late afternoon over the Pennyrile area of western KY.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 84°

Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 84°

Winds will be from this direction:  West southwest 10 to 35 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 7:33 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A small chance of an evening thunderstorm over the Pennyrile area of western KY.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 8 pm
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°

Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 15 to 25 mph.   Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways if anything at all.  Precip will be ending Wednesday afternoon.  Wednesday evening/night could end up dry.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:  1:47 PM
Moonset: 3:34 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Thursday Forecast:  Partly sunny. Warm. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  The threat for thunderstorms will be higher during the afternoon and evening hours.  Moving in from the northwest.  Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%

Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous from the northwest spreading southeast
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°

Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°

Winds will be from this direction:  East southeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 7:34 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%

Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~  56° to 60°

Winds will be from this direction: South becoming west northwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.  Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise:  2:47 PM
Moonset: 4:02 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Friday Forecast: Some morning clouds.  Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°

Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 68°

Winds will be from this direction:  North 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 7:34 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:   Partly cloudy. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°

Winds will be from this direction: North 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise:  3:46 PM
Moonset: 4:26 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

    1.   Warm weather continues today into Thursday.  A cooling trend this weekend.
    2.   Monitoring thunderstorm chances today over mainly the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
    3.   A second cold front with showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday/Thursday night.  Some of the storms could be severe along the front during the afternoon and overnight hours.  A line of storms is likely to move in from the northwest.
    4.   A couple of showers and thunderstorms possible Friday and Saturday over mainly our southern counties.  That would be the Bootheel into and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border southward.

 

Weather advice:

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Quite tired this morning.  I had to watch radars yesterday into the night.  The severe weather parameters were mixed and it was what I call a “babysitting” event.  Meaning, some of the parameters for severe were there and some were not.  But, required monitoring.

We do have a cold front in the region today.  This front will bring a risk of a few more thunderstorms over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.  If storms do form, then a few could be intense.  Overall, the risk is low.

Dry tonight.  No weather concerns.

I am more concerned about Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.  The latest guidance is showing a strong line of thunderstorms moving into the region during the afternoon and overnight hours.  This is ahead of a strong cold front.

Some of those storms could certainly be severe.  The severe weather parameters are stronger with the Thursday system than any other point so far this week.  We need to monitor it.

The storms would be capable of producing damaging wind and hail.  I can’t rule out a tornado threat.  I will be monitoring.

Here are three models for Thursday evening.  All three show a line of thunderstorms moving into the region from the northwest.

Let’s keep a close eye on it.

The cold front moves through the region Thursday night and that brings an end to the risk of severe weather.

A few remaining showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday and Saturday.  Low end chances.  Mainly over the Missouri Bootheel into and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border southward.

Otherwise, cooler and dry weather into the weekend.  Temperatures Saturday and Sunday night could dip into the 30s over at least portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  I can’t rule out a light frost if winds die down.  A widespread killing frost appears unlikely.

I am monitoring rain chances and warmer conditions early next week.  For now, it appears rain chances return late Monday night into Tuesday.

 

 


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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

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This  animation is the NAM 3K Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the FV3 Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the HRRR Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the GFS Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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This  animation is the EC Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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