April 16, 2024: Thunderstorms. Some could be intense.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. A chance of lightning today into Wednesday afternoon. Another chance Thursday into Thursday night. A low chance Friday and Saturday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? YES. A chance of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon. The concern will be damaging wind, hail, and even tornadoes.

The risk of severe weather Wednesday is HIGHLY dependent on the speed of the cold front. Some data shows the front pushing through the region tonight and tomorrow morning. IF that happens, then the threat of severe weather will end.

Another chance of severe weather Thursday and Thursday night. The risk will again be all modes of severe weather.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Thunderstorms are likely this week. If training thunderstorms were to occur, then some excessive rainfall would be possible. Overall, the risk of flash flooding is low. Monitor updates.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? MONITOR. Strong and gusty winds will be with us today into Friday. For now, I don’t have a 12-hour time-period where 40 mph winds are likely. Gusts above 30 mph are likely. I will monitor this portion of the forecast.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: 3. Very low risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 5. Medium risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Dry weather will persist into early afternoon. Then showers and thunderstorms are forecast to progress eastward across the area from late this afternoon into tonight. There`s a chance that scattered showers and thunderstorms may redevelop mainly east of Interstate 57 on Wednesday as a cold front passes through. The passage of a stronger cold front brings another chance of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night. Mainly dry and cooler conditions are expected by Friday and the weekend. Good transport within a deep mixed layer will promote very good to excellent dispersion today and Wednesday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered east. More numerous west.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 35 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the threat of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the threat of severe storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 12:45 PM
Moonset: 3:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy. The risk of severe weather Wednesday is HIGHLY dependent on the speed of the cold front. Some data shows the front pushing through the region tonight and tomorrow morning. IF that happens, then the threat of severe weather will end and precipitation chances will be much lower. Keep this in mind.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the morning then scattered.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 10 to 35 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the threat of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 7:33 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a few showers and thunderstorms remaining. Rain will be ending Wednesday afternoon and early evening. It is possible that Wednesday night remains dry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated/ending
Timing of the precipitation: Ending early in the evening
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways if anything at all. Precip will be ending Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday evening/night could end up dry.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:47 PM
Moonset: 3:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 7:34 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South becoming west northwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:47 PM
Moonset: 4:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Warm again today. Warm into Thursday. Cooler weekend.
2. A risk of severe weather Tuesday into Wednesday.
3. A second cold front with showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday/Thursday night.
4. A few showers and thunderstorms may continue into Saturday. Not a wash out.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Bottom line it for me.

A few of the thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight could produce damaging wind and hail. A low-end tornado risk. The time-frame of concern will be 3 PM this afternoon through 2 AM tonight. Beginning first over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late this afternoon and evening. Eventually, pushing into Kentucky and Tennessee.

Depending on the speed of the cold front, another risk of severe weather may materialize Wednesday morning and afternoon. The threat Wednesday will be centered over southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Again, this is highly dependent on the speed of the front. The threat will be damaging wind and hail. A low-end tornado risk.

If the cold front speeds up, then there won’t be a risk Wednesday.

Thursday will bring another risk of severe thunderstorms. A lot of moving parts to this forecast, so monitor updates.

Discussion

The atmosphere is becoming increasingly unstable today and tonight. This will continue into Thursday night.

We will have a few showers this morning, but this isn’t the primary weather concern for today. That won’t arrive until later this afternoon and tonight. There remain questions about the extent of severe weather.

Peak thunderstorm chances will be this afternoon into Wednesday and then again Thursday and Thursday night.

Let’s look at a couple of NWS graphics. The NWS offices in Paducah and Memphis made these.

Here is the official severe weather outlook for today. The dark green zone is a marginal (level one) risk. The yellow is a level two severe weather risk. This graphic might look a little different than the graphics above. That is because the SPC will update the outlook a couple of times today and the graphics above were made by the NWS early in the morning (before new updates).

The light green is where lightning is possible, but storms should remain below several levels.

A cold front will push into the region from the west later today and tonight.

This front will carry with it the risk of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe, but confidence in the extent of the severe weather threat remains low.

We should monitor Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday for the risk of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large area for a risk of severe weather.

Instability isn’t crazy today. This raises some questions about the extent of the severe weather threat.

Here are some CAPE maps for 7 pm tonight from three models. CAPE is energy that storms tap into. Higher CAPE values equal a higher risk of severe thunderstorms. These aren’t large numbers, but there will be some wind shear for storms to work with, as well.

Wind shear is the turning of wind direction with height and the change of wind speed with height.

Then, Wednesday, they have outlined this area for a severe weather risk. This continues as the cold front advances eastward.

Instability is a bit higher Wednesday. Here is the CAPE map for Wednesday afternoon. If the front speeds up, however, then the threat will be lower. I will need to monitor the speed of the cold front. If the cold front speeds up, then there won’t be a risk Wednesday.

Once the cold front exits your county, then the risk of severe weather diminishes.

The risk Wednesday will shift eastward and will include southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. How far east the severe weather risk pushes will depend on the speed of the cold front.

If the cold front speeds up a bit, then the risk will be lower Wednesday. Or, the risk will be farther east. We will need to monitor the speed of the front. It is possible the front exits most of our region late tonight and tomorrow morning, brining an end to the severe weather risk.

Another cold front will arrive Thursday and Thursday night. This will bring some additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. The SPC has outlined our region for a risk of severe weather Thursday, as well.

Here is a graphic that the NWS made concerning Thursday. This graphic is from the Memphis, Tennessee NWS. Paducah didn’t make one for Thursday’s event, yet.

Busy weather week for meteorologists.

Rainfall totals through Friday. This is what could fall in the region. Of course, exact totals will vary greatly depending on where thunderstorms track. Like always, there will be a large range of totals.

We will have slight chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday, as well. Again, the forecast looks wet, but a lot of this is scattered.

Colder air arrives Thursday night into the weekend.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.