Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Major flooding continues in some counties.

Avoid flooded roadways. Water continues to recede in many areas.  Larger rivers, however, continue to rise.

River and lake stages.  Forecasts.  Click here.

A warming trend develops today into the weekend.  Friday may be the warmest day with some counties hitting the eighty-degree mark!  That will feel nice.  Maybe a lawn mowing day?

Gusty southerly winds will develop on Friday, as well.

A weak system will brush the region tonight and Thursday.   A few showers will accompany this system.  A low risk of lightning tonight and tomorrow.

Here are tonight’s rain probabilities.  They are a bit higher over Missouri and Illinois.

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Thursday’s rain probabilities.  Again, a bit higher over Missouri and Illinois.

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Here is the future-cast radar from the Hrrr model.  What radar might look like tonight and tomorrow.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

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A cold front will push towards the region on Friday night and Saturday.  Showers and thunderstorms will accompany that system.

Peak rain chances will arrive on Friday night into Saturday.

There remain questions about Saturday’s rain chances.  If the front is a tad farther north, the chance of rain on Saturday will be lower.  I will be monitoring trends in the guidance.

Friday night rain probabilities.

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Saturday rain probabilities.  Again, these numbers will be highly dependent on the placement of the surface front.

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Severe Weather Outlooks

Here is what the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS posted.

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The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk of severe weather for the Friday system.

Here is the Friday night SPC severe weather outlook.  We are mainly in the level one risk (Marginal).  The level two risk (slight) clips our northwest counties.

I will monitor trends in the guidance.  Overall, the severe risk appears limited.

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I am monitoring Saturday’s severe weather risk, as well.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a low-end risk of damaging wind and hail.  A low tornado risk.

Overall, the severe risk will likely be limited.

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A stronger system will push into the region on Sunday.  This will bring another risk of intense storms.

This is the period that I am most concerned about regarding the threat of severe weather.

As you can see below, this threat covers a large portion of our region.  It does leave out a portion of southern Illinois and Kentucky.  I will monitor trends.

It would not surprise me to see this threat shift around a bit.  It will depend on where the warm front is positioned.

If the system pushes a tad farther south, then more of our region would be clear of the severe threat.  On the other hand, if the front stalls farther north, then more of our region would have a severe weather threat.

Right now, Sunday afternoon and night are the primary periods of concern.

If you have holiday plans, then monitor my weather updates.  I would not cancel plans.  I would have a plan B, just in case it storms.

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I kept a low-end chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday, but the system may push east of our region by that time.  Leaving our region dry.

As far as rainfall totals go.

Here is the seven-day rainfall outlook.  The heavier rainfall totals should be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Somewhat lower totals over Kentucky and Tennessee.

These totals should not impact the river crest levels.  This could mean that rivers will remain flooded for a longer period of time.

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Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model

This shows you the weekend system.

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