Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Major flooding continues in some counties.

Avoid flooded roadways. Water continues to recede in many areas.  Larger rivers, however, continue to rise.

River and lake stages.  Forecasts.  Click here.

We are waking up to scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Mainly over Missouri and Illinois.  Less coverage elsewhere.

Here was the 5:30 AM radar snapshot.  This was all moving off to the east.

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As we move through today, the clouds will clear.  It will be warm and breezy today.

We will have occasional showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into Sunday night.

There will be a WIDE range of rain probabilities with this event.

Missouri and Illinois will have the highest precipitation coverage tomorrow night into Saturday.  Then, chances increase area-wide as we move into Saturday night and Sunday.

Let me show you that in graphical form (I also included this in the video).

If you have outdoor plans, monitor updates and radars.  Have a plan B.  Then, you will be prepared.

As you can see, the Friday night rain probabilities are higher north-northwest vs south-southeast.

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Saturday’s rain probabilities.  Again, higher over Missouri and Illinois.

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Saturday night’s rain probabilities.

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Sunday’s rain probabilities.  Some of the storms on Sunday afternoon and night could be severe.  Monitor alerts.

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Here is the future-cast radar from the NAM model.  What radar might look like from tomorrow into Sunday morning.

Notice the bulk of the rain falls across Missouri and Illinois.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

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Severe Weather Outlooks

I am not overly concerned about the Friday night into Saturday night risk.  I will keep an eye on it.  Perhaps a few storms produce nickel-size hail and 50+ mph wind gusts.  Overall, the severe weather is low.

The risk is higher on Sunday afternoon and night.  This is when I am more concerned about all modes of severe weather.

Here is what the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS posted.

Double click on the image to enlarge it.

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A stronger system will push into the region on Sunday.  This will bring another risk of intense storms.

You can see that on the EC model.  The low pressure centers pushes through Missouri to our north and west.  That places us in the warm sector where storms will form.

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Sunday afternoon and night is the period that I am most concerned about regarding the threat of severe weather.

As you can see below, this threat covers a large portion of our region.  It does leave out a portion of southern Illinois and Kentucky.  I will monitor trends.

I believe, when all is said and done, we will all be under a severe risk on Sunday afternoon and night.

It would not surprise me to see this threat shift around a bit.  It will depend on where the warm front is positioned.

If the system pushes a tad farther south, then more of our region would be clear of the severe threat.  On the other hand, if the front stalls farther north, then more of our region would have a severe weather threat.

If you have holiday plans, then monitor my weather updates.  I would not cancel plans.  I would have a plan B, just in case it storms.

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I kept a low-end chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday, but the system may push east of our region by that time.  Leaving our region dry.

As far as rainfall totals go.

Here is the seven-day rainfall outlook.  The heavier rainfall totals should be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Somewhat lower totals over Kentucky and Tennessee.

These totals should not impact the river crest levels.  This could mean that rivers will remain flooded for a longer period of time.

Double click these images to enlarge them.

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Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model

This shows you the weekend system.

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