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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
April 15th through April 21st
Current risk: POSSIBLE.
Current confidence level: Medium.
Comment: I am monitoring Friday into Sunday night.
Peak severe weather chances will likely arrive on Saturday into Sunday night. My primary focus is Sunday/Sunday night.
Monitor updated forecasts. There remain some uncertainties on the risk level.
I will monitor next Monday, as well. If the front slows, then the threat of storms could linger.
If you have outdoor plans this weekend, then monitor updated forecasts. Perhaps have a plan B, just in case storms threaten.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible Wednesday night into the weekend, on and off chances.
Peak lightning chances will be Friday night into Sunday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? YES. See the graphics below.
A risk may develop Friday night, but it appears the risk will be higher to our west/northwest. On Friday night, I will monitor southeast MO and southern IL. The risk is lower over KY/TN.
A severe weather risk may develop Saturday into Saturday night. That would be an area-wide risk.
It appears peak severe chances will arrive on Sunday afternoon and night. That would also be area-wide.
I will monitor Monday into Wednesday. The Monday into Wednesday concerns will depend on how far south the warm front/stationary front pushes. Some of the data moves the front away from our region. If that is verified, we won’t have any concerns Monday through Wednesday. Monitor updated forecasts over the coming days.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Locally heavy rain is possible this weekend. If heavy rain develops, then some flash flooding could develop. Ongoing river and overland flooding will continue.
The Weather Prediction Center/NOAA has outlined our region for a risk of flash flooding on Saturday (I suspect they will add Sunday to the risk, as well).
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? UNLIKELY. Gusty winds are likely on Friday. They should top out below 40 mph but could come close.
5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.
6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NO.
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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Forecast discussion.
- Cool today. Sunshine.
- A warming trend will develop mid to late week.
- I am monitoring shower and thunderstorm chances from Wednesday night into the weekend.
- Peak rain chances should arrive on Saturday into Sunday night.
- Some storms could be severe later this week into the weekend. Monitor updates.
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Major flooding continues in some counties.
Avoid flooded roadways. Water continues to recede in many areas. Larger rivers, however, continue to rise.
River and lake stages. Forecasts. Click here.
We are waking up to cool temperatures.
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It will be cool today with sunshine. Some gusty northerly winds, as well.
Chilly temperatures tonight. Some locations could have patchy light frost tonight, but for many, it will be just a few degrees too warm for frost.
A warming trend develops on Thursday into the weekend. Highs will pop into the 70s and perhaps even some 80s! I am ready for those temperatures.
A weak system will brush the region Wednesday night and Thursday. I have a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm during that time frame.
Wednesday night rain probabilities.
Thursday rain probabilities.
A cold front will push towards the region on Friday night and Saturday. A few showers and thunderstorms will accompany that system.
Peak rain chances will arrive on Friday night. Here are the Friday night rain probabilities.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk of severe weather for that system, mainly to our west.
Here is the Friday SPC severe weather outlook. As you can see, it clips my northwest counties.
I will monitor trends in the guidance. Overall, the severe risk appears limited.
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I will need to monitor Saturday’s severe weather risk.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region for a low-end risk of damaging wind and hail. A low tornado risk.
This is a thin risk zone. Any adjustments would impact placement in our region. Monitor updates.
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A stronger system will push into the region on Sunday. This will bring another risk of intense storms.
This is the period that I am most concerned about regarding the severe weather threat.
We may be in a level two or three threat zone. As you can see below, this threat covers a large portion of our region. It does leave out a portion of southern Illinois and Kentucky. I will monitor it.
It would not surprise me to see this threat shift around a bit. It will depend on where the warm front is positioned.
If the system pushes a tad farther south, then more of our region would be clear of the severe threat. On the other hand, if the front stalls farther north, then more of our region would have a severe weather threat.
Right now, Sunday afternoon and night are the primary periods of concern. If you have holiday plans, then monitor my weather updates.
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I would not cancel or change any Easter weekend plans, but stay abreast of updated forecasts. Have a plan B just in case storms threaten.
The forecast for the Monday through Wednesday time frame will be highly dependent on the placement of the cold front.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS model
This shows you the weekend system.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here
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Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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