April 15, 2024: Monday’s Outlook and a look at the risk of severe weather. Colder by the weekend.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. A chance of lightning this afternoon and tonight. Mainly over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Chances are lower as you travel south southwest. A higher chance of lightning Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another chance Wednesday into Thursday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Thunderstorms could become severe today over southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky. Lower chances as you drive south and west in the region. See the graphics farther down in this weather update. The primary concern will be hail and wind.

A chance of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, area-wide. The primary concern will be damaging wind, hail, and even tornadoes.

Here is a statement from the Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service.

Continuing to track some severe weather potential over the next few days. A few storms may fire up along a warm front somewhere in the vicinity or just south of the Interstate 64 corridor this afternoon and evening. A brief hail/wind threat may exist with any storms that manage to get going.

Tuesday night into Wednesday we are more concerned about a tornado/wind/hail potential overnight into Wednesday morning. There is still some uncertainty on how unstable we will get but the shear remains very strong, and we are concerned we will have sufficient instability for storms through the overnight. The threat is roughly the same for the entire area, just depending on where/if storms get going. The front should clear the area completely by midday Wednesday.

We may see a few more storm chances sneak in Thursday but models have really been bouncing, and nothing too organized appears probable.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Thunderstorms are likely this week. If training thunderstorms were to occur, then some excessive rainfall would be possible. Overall, the risk of flash flooding is low. Monitor updates.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? MONITOR. Strong and gusty winds will be with us today into Friday. For now, I don’t have a 12-hour time-period where 40 mph winds are likely. Gusts above 30 mph are likely. I will monitor this portion of the forecast.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Monday through Monday night: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday : 3. Very low risk.
Tuesday night: 3. Very low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

South winds and mixing heights 4000-5000 ft should lead to good smoke dispersion by this afternoon. Rain chances exist along the I-64 corridor this evening. Better dispersion conditions are forecast Tuesday as winds pick up out of the south. Thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
The focus will be north. Here are the 7 am to 7 pm rain probabilities.
Even though the probabilities are low, I would not be surprised to see a couple of storms form in that purple zone.

If storms form, they could become severe with hail and high winds.

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of view.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 85°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 85°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 85°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning, Hail and wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 7:31 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. A few of the evening storms could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Here are the probabilities of rain from 7 PM to 7 AM Monday night.

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of view.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning, Hail and wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 11:42 AM
Moonset: 2:22 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Here are the probabilities of rain from 7 AM to 7 PM Tuesday

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of view.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 35 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the threat of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Here are the probabilities of rain from 7 PM to 7 AM Tuesday night.

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of view.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor for the threat of severe storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 12:45 PM
Moonset: 3:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the morning then scattered.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of view.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 10 to 35 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the threat of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Sunset: 7:33 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a few showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of view.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 1:47 PM
Moonset: 3:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of view.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Sunset: 7:34 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of view.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 53° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: South becoming west northwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:47 PM
Moonset: 4:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. A low-end chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday night. Mainly north (see graphics top of page)
2. Warm weather. Well above average temperatures through Wednesday.
3. A risk of severe weather Tuesday into Wednesday.
4. A second cold front with showers Thursday.
5. Colder air arrives Thursday and Friday. Monitoring frost chances.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

A rather complex weather forecast over the coming days.

Although it appears to be a wet forecast, it is mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Peak chances appear to be Tuesday night/Wednesday.

First, we have a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms forming along a warm front Monday afternoon and evening.

Data is mixed on the extent of the coverage of precipitation, but at least a few showers and locally heavy thunderstorms will be possible.

I can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm warning or two with these thunderstorms. Mainly for damaging wind and hail.

The following models pop a few storms Monday afternoon and evening over mainly southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Other data is a bit farther south. Either way, let’s monitor those storms.

You get the general idea of placement. Over portions of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky along a warm front.

Here is the official severe weather outlook for Monday. The dark green zone is a marginal (level one) risk.

The light green is where lightning is possible, but storms should remain below several levels.

Higher thunderstorm probabilities will arrive Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cold front will push into the region from the west. See the graphics at the top of the page in the daily forecast section.

This front will carry with it the risk of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe, but confidence in the extent of the severe weather threat remains low. I will know a lot more late Monday morning into Monday afternoon as higher resolution guidance arrives.

We should monitor Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large area for a risk of severe weather Tuesday and Tuesday night.

There are questions about dew point recovery in our local area Tuesday afternoon and night. If lower dew points rule, then the risk of severe weather will be lower. If higher dew points push into the region, then the risk of severe weather will be higher. This portion of the forecast will need to be fine-tuned.

Then, Wednesday, they have outlined this area.

The Tuesday afternoon and night threat will be area-wide. Thus, monitor updates and monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app.

The risk Wednesday will shift eastward and will include southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. How far east the severe weather risk pushes will depend on the speed of the cold front.

If the cold front speeds up a bit, then the risk will be lower Wednesday. Or, the risk will be farther east. We will need to monitor the speed of the front.

Another cold front will arrive Thursday and Thursday night. This will bring some additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

Rainfall totals through Friday. This is what could fall in the region. Of course, exact totals will vary greatly depending on where thunderstorms track. Like always, there will be a large range of totals.

We will have slight chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday, as well. Again, the forecast looks wet, but a lot of this is scattered.

Colder air arrives Thursday night into the weekend. As a matter of fact, temperatures this weekend could drop into the 30s. This will bring with it the risk of frost, if the winds subside.

With that said, the latest data has backed off showing 30s for lows. I will monitor this portion of the forecast and update accordingly. Hopefully, we avoid frost. The threat would be Friday night into Sunday night.

Again, the latest data shows 40s Friday and Saturday night and perhaps 30s and 40s Sunday night. This is a change from previous forecasts that showed 30s Friday night.

It is not unusual to have frost this late in April, but it does become increasingly more unusual once we move past this weekend.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.