ANNOUNCEMENT
I am moving the WeatherTalk Server over this evening – Wednesday evening. If it does not get finished then there may not be an updated post until Thursday afternoon.
The blog could be down for several hours as the transfer is made.
This is making way for the value added content that is about to be announced!
Thank you
Beau
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are averages.
Lower than normal confidence on the timing of precipitation over the next 5 days. Weak disturbances moving through the area could spark showers and thunderstorms from time to time. Keep this in mind.
Thursday – Quite a few clouds once again. A small chance (at any given spot) for a shower and perhaps rumble of thunder. Highs in the 70’s with southeast winds at 10 mph becoming west/southwest late. Chance of precipitation at any given spot is less than 30%
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? A few showers will once again dot the area. Coverage should be scattered.
Thursday night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm late at night. Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Northeast winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay
Friday – Warmer. Cloudy with a chance for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the middle to upper 70’s. East/southeast winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Small chance for rain
Friday Night – Cloudy with a small chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Scattered in nature. Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Southeast winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Small chance for rain
Saturday – Cloudy with a chance for a morning shower or thunderstorm. Coverage of precipitation will increase as we move through the day. Best chances will be in the afternoon and then into the overnight hours. Highs in the 70’s. South winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B – much of the day could be dry. The bigger chances for rain and storms might hold off until the afternoon into Saturday night. Keep this in mind and monitor updates.
Rain chances will continue into Saturday night and Sunday. The whole system coming out of the southwest arrives on Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon. We should see a period or two of widespread precipitation as the system pulls through the region.
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A chance for some scattered showers and storms on Thursday. But, perhaps Thursday night will be mostly dry.
2. Storm chances increase Friday into the weekend. Best chances will likely be later on Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning/afternoon.
Unsettled weather continues.
Wednesday brought some showers to the region. Scattered. Not everyone experienced rain.
I suspect we will have a few more showers going into Thursday morning, but perhaps coverage will not be all that great. Most areas will remain dry.
Friday might see a few pop-up showers and storms. Instability will be a bit greater on Friday. But, there isn’t a strong trigger for storms. Thus, coverage will be limited. Same for Friday night.
A storm system approaches our region on Saturday (late morning) afternoon and evening. Radars will light up to our west/southwest on Saturday. I am thinking that we will only experience a few showers and storms on radar before 11 am. After that time we will see an increase from west to east.
Saturday night and Sunday will also bring likely chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Some locally heavy rain will be possible as the storm system pulls through our region. Severe weather chances appear limited.
Our amazingly quiet spring severe weather continues. This is true across the country, for the most part. Near record low severe weather reports.
Let’s look at the NAM future-cast radar for Thursday into Saturday.
Images are from weatherbell.com
This is the Thursday morning future-cast radar. Just a few showers in the region.
We pull ahead to Saturday morning. This is around 12 pm. Watch the coverage of precipitation expand to our west.
Then around 7 pm Saturday evening. Rain and storms will be moving back into our region. This color table is a little dramatic, so don’t worry too much about the bright colors.
If you have outdoor plans on Saturday night or Sunday then monitor updates.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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Some lightning possible if storms form on Thursday. Chances for severe weather are very small.
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G&C Multi-Services out of Paducah, Kentucky. G & C Multi-Services is a service provider in Western Kentucky that provides industrial and commercial equipment fabrication, machine troubleshooting, repair and maintenance, and installation. They can custom fabricate steel, stainless, and aluminum products per customer specifications.
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Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
Gary Eckelkamp’s web-site click the above banner or click here
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
A few scattered showers and storms possible on Thursday. Widely scattered and most locations will remain dry.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE. Some storms are possible on Thursday. Chances for severe weather are very small. Overall, most areas should remain dry on Thursday. Much better chances for widespread precipitation by later on Saturday into Sunday morning/afternoon.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated (thunder possible)
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated (thunder possible)
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated (thunder possible)
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rainfall totals between now and Sunday night.
Lower than normal confidence on totals. Totals could vary quite a bit, as well. Thunderstorms can cause locally heavy downpours.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
A good chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday night into Sunday. Our southwest system that has brought us so much unsettled weather will pull out of the southwest and move through our region and the southern United States.
We could have some locally heavy rain when it moves through the area.
We should dry out on Monday and Tuesday (and perhaps even Wednesday).
Perhaps our next chance for rain or storms will arrive around next Wednesday or Wednesday night. Then a larger system might approach the region late next week. Long way off for details
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
