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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
April 15th to April 21st
Current risk: NOT AT THIS TIME.
Current confidence level: Medium.
Comments: At this time, tornadoes are not anticipated. I will keep an eye on Saturday.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible this afternoon through Saturday night. Chances will rapidly drop off as we move through Saturday night.
2. Are organized severe thunderstorms. MONITOR. At this time, the threat of widespread severe weather is low. I will monitor both Thursday and Saturday. Perhaps a few intense storms. The concern would be gusty winds and small hail. The overall threat of severe weather remains low.
3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? POSSIBLE. On Friday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
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This morning
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This afternoon
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Tomorrow morning
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Tomorrow afternoon
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
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Forecast discussion
- Warm this week. Cooler by Sunday and Monday.
- Near record high temperatures today and on Friday. It is likely that some areas will break their record high temperatures. Perhaps some record high low temperatures, as well.
- On and off shower and thunderstorm chances today through Saturday evening.
- Peak chances will be late tonight into Thursday afternoon. Another peak late Friday night into Saturday.
- A few storms could be intense on Thursday and Saturday. There is a low-end risk of a few severe thunderstorm warnings on Thursday afternoon and evening. For now, the risk of widespread severe weather appears low. Monitor updates.
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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?
Near record high temperatures today. Breezy, as well. Thunderstorm chances will increase late tonight into Thursday evening.
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Here are the early morning current conditions. These are the 4 AM readings.
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It is April 15th, and we have made it halfway through April without any severe weather. That is quite amazing!
Last year was brutal for the region. We deserve some quieter weather. Although we do need rain to break the ongoing drought.
Another warm day ahead of us with widespread high temperatures in the eighties. Some reporting stations could break their record high temperatures!
It will be breezy today through Saturday. Occasional wind gusts above 20 mph.
Near record or record highs today. Another chance of record highs on Friday. As a matter of fact, some locations may hit 9o degrees on Friday.
If Paducah hits 90 degrees on Friday, that would be the earliest 90-degree reading on record.
There is a small chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over mainly southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Most of the region will remain dry.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late tonight into tomorrow. The chance of rain will likely linger into Thursday evening. Then, a lull in the activity on Thursday night and Friday.
The atmosphere will be worked over tomorrow morning and early afternoon. This raises questions as to whether the atmosphere can recover on Thursday afternoon and evening.
If the atmosphere recovers and becomes unstable, there will be a chance of a few strong thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Here is the CAPE forecast. CAPE is energy that thunderstorms tap into. Higher CAPE numbers equal a higher chance of severe weather.
This is the Thursday morning CAPE. Not much to work with.
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As we move into Thursday afternoon, you can see the CAPE numbers do pop a bit over southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. You can see the orange and yellow colors. That is CAPE. There is a boundary draped across the area.
I will be monitoring it.
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The Hrrr model is different from the NAM. It shows the atmosphere recovering from the morning activity. It shows higher CAPE over a larger area.
Again, this is for Thursday afternoon.
I will just need to monitor trends in the guidance. Either way, the primary concern will be a few thunderstorms becoming intense on Thursday afternoon and evening.
The primary concerns will be 50-mph wind gusts and nickel-sized hail. There is a 20% chance of a few severe thunderstorm warnings on Thursday afternoon and evening.
Confidence in severe weather is low due to morning clouds and thunderstorms.
Sometimes the morning activity keeps the atmosphere from destabilizing.
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There will be a lull in shower and thunderstorm activity as we move through Thursday night. Then the chance increases again Friday night into Saturday night.
See the rain probability maps below.
The cold front on Saturday would have more lift and some instability to work with. I will monitor Saturday for a few severe thunderstorms. For now, the risk appears limited. Monitor updates over the next few days.
If severe weather develops on Saturday, gusty winds and hail would be the primary concerns.
As always, during the spring, monitor updated forecasts.
Here are the expected rain totals from today through Sunday.
A lot of the rain, over the past four months, has ended up being less than forecast. We will see how this week goes. We need rain. A lot of rain. Drought conditions continue to worsen.
Double-click on images to enlarge them.
Central view of our region.
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Missouri view
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Let’s look at those rain probabilities.
What is the % chance of rain?
Double-click images to enlarge them.
This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 PM Wednesday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 AM Thursday to 7 PM Thursday
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It will turn cooler on Sunday (behind the cold front). Highs may only reach into the 60s on Sunday.
No frost in the forecast at this time.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
This model pops most of the storms east northeast of our region (on Thursday PM)
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3K Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
FV3 Model
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
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** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
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