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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
April 14th to April 20th
Current risk: NOT AT THIS TIME.
Current confidence level: Medium.
Comments: At this time, tornadoes are not anticipated. I will keep an eye on the middle and end of this week.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Lightning is possible tonight into Saturday night.
2. Are organized severe thunderstorms. MONITOR. At this time, the threat of widespread severe weather is low. I will monitor both Thursday and Saturday. Perhaps a few intense storms. The overall threat of severe weather remains low.
3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? POSSIBLE. On Friday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
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This morning
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This afternoon
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Tomorrow morning
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Tomorrow afternoon
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
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Forecast discussion
- A warm week ahead of us. Above-average temperatures into the weekend. Some record high temperatures are likely.
- On and off shower and thunderstorm chances. See the rain graphics below.
- At this time, there are no strong signals for widespread severe weather through Saturday. Perhaps some low-end threats on Thursday and Saturday. Monitor updates.
- A stronger cold front will push across the region on Saturday and Saturday night. This will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
- Cooler on Sunday and Monday.
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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?
No weather concerns today. Warm and breezy. Near record or record high temperatures.
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Here are the early morning current conditions. These are the 4 AM readings.
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A warm day ahead of us! A warm week.
Near record or record highs today and tomorrow. Another chance of record highs on Friday. As a matter of fact, some locations may hit 9o degrees on Friday.
If Paducah hits 90 degrees on Friday, that would be the earliest 90-degree reading on record. Impressive.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible through Saturday night.
The risk today and tonight is low. Perhaps a few showers and storms over our northern counties (see graphics below).
Peak chances will be Wednesday night and Thursday/Thursday night. Another peak on Saturday and Saturday night (along a cold front). Otherwise, lower chances for each 12 to 24-hour period (see graphics below).
The signals for severe weather are weak. I will keep an eye on Thursday and Saturday.
The cold front on Saturday would have more lift and some instability to work with. Thus, the risk of storms will be higher on Saturday/Saturday night.
As always, during the spring, monitor updated forecasts.
Here are the expected rain totals from today through Sunday.
A lot of the rain, over the past four months, has ended up being less than forecast. We will see how this week goes. We need rain. A lot of rain. Drought conditions continue to worsen.
Double-click on images to enlarge them.
Central view of our region.
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Missouri view
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Let’s look at those rain probabilities.
What is the % chance of rain?
Double-click images to enlarge them.
This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Tuesday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 PM Wednesday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 AM Thursday to 7 PM Thursday
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It will turn cooler on Sunday (behind the cold front). Highs may only reach into the 60s on Sunday.
No frost in the forecast at this time.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
This model pops most of the storms east northeast of our region (on Thursday PM)
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
FV3 Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3K Model
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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